Penafiel vs AVS• Segunda Liga, Portugal

#22.6:0.81-2FTToday · Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel1.2:1.0#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.98DAFX3.35DAF24.29PINMargin at best3.7%Books10Markets74Rating68 · 32Exp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.98	3.35	4.10	4.7%
Pinnacle	1.90	3.37	4.39	5.1%
Betano	1.98	3.30	3.85	6.8%
1xBet	1.90	3.28	4.02	8.0%
Marathonbet	1.88	3.28	4.00	8.7%
BetVictor	1.87	3.30	3.90	9.4%
Bet365	1.85	3.20	4.10	9.7%
Betfair	1.90	3.25	3.80	9.7%
William Hill	1.91	3.10	3.75	11.3%
SBO	1.93	3.04	3.54	13.0%
Best of all books	1.98	3.37	4.39	3.0%
Average	1.91	3.25	3.94	8.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PenafielAVS

Last 10#2Table position#101.86Points per game1.2913Form pts · last 582.6Goals for · last 51.20.8Goals against · last 51.068Attack rating3256Defence rating4468Form rating320H2H rating10079Goals model2168Overall rating32

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 14:01 UTC

Penafiel

5W 3D 2L · goals 17:10 · per match 1.7 for, 1.0 against

25 Sep	H	Deportivo La Coruna	2-2	D
19 Sep	A	Oliveirense	2-1	W
12 Sep	A	Felgueiras 1932	2-1	W
5 Sep	H	Academica	4-1	W
30 Aug	A	FC Porto B	3-0	W
23 Aug	H	Sporting CP B	2-0	W
15 Aug	A	Torreense	2-2	D
8 Aug	H	Portimonense	0-1	L
24 Jul	H	Leganes	0-2	L
18 Jul	A	Famalicao	0-0	D

AVS

4W 4D 2L · goals 14:7 · per match 1.4 for, 0.7 against

20 Sep	A	Sintrense	2-0	W
13 Sep	H	Farense	0-0	D
7 Sep	A	Lusitânia Lourosa	1-2	L
30 Aug	H	Feirense	2-0	W
23 Aug	A	Chaves	2-2	D
17 Aug	A	Felgueiras 1932	1-1	D
9 Aug	H	Sporting CP B	0-1	L
31 Jul	H	Trofense	1-1	D
29 Jul	H	Vianense	3-0	W
25 Jul	A	Pacos Ferreira	2-0	W

Head to head

0Penafiel wins

0draws

2AVS wins

2 meetings · goals 0:2 · last 2: 0W 0D 2L for Penafiel

3 Mar 2024Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	Penafiel0-1AVS
9 Oct 2023Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	AVS1-0Penafiel

Segunda Liga tableDivision2updated 9 Oct 21:10 UTC

In the Segunda Liga table, Penafiel sit 2nd with 13 points from 7 games, while AVS are 10th with 9 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	5	1	0	11:4	+7	16
2	Penafiel	7	4	1	2	14:7	+7	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	4	0	2	8:6	+2	12
4	Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	+6	11
5	Vizela	6	3	2	1	7:4	+3	11
6	Benfica B	6	3	1	2	7:5	+2	10
7	União de Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	+3	10
8	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8:6	+2	10
9	Academica	6	3	0	3	8:10	-2	9
10	AVS	7	2	3	2	8:7	+1	9
11	Tondela	6	3	0	3	7:6	+1	9
12	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	4:6	-2	7
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	1	3	2	5:6	-1	6
14	Torreense	6	1	3	2	7:9	-2	6
15	Amarante	6	1	2	3	5:8	-3	5
16	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4
17	FC Porto B	6	1	1	4	4:13	-9	4
18	Feirense	6	0	1	5	1:8	-7	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg148%1.91X28%3.25223%3.95

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.86 → 1.90 +2.2%X3.35 → 3.22 -3.9%24.14 → 3.93 -5.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.10	1.75	4.8%
SBO	2.14	1.71	5.2%
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Betano	2.12	1.70	6.0%
1xBet	2.01	1.74	7.2%
Marathonbet	2.01	1.74	7.2%
Betfair	2.00	1.73	7.8%
BetVictor	2.00	1.69	9.2%
Best of all books	2.14	1.75	3.9%
Average	2.06	1.72	6.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.87	1.87	7.0%
Bet365	1.91	1.80	7.9%
William Hill	1.91	1.80	7.9%
1xBet	1.83	1.87	8.1%
Betano	1.88	1.82	8.1%
BetVictor	1.85	1.83	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.83	1.85	8.7%
Best of all books	1.91	1.87	5.8%
Average	1.87	1.83	8.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Penafiel 45%Draw 45%AVS 10%

The statistical model rated Penafiel at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and AVS at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.95, which imply roughly 52.4% for a Penafiel win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Segunda Liga table: Penafiel are 2nd (13 pts, 14-7 goals), AVS 10th (9 pts, 8-7).

Over their last five matches, Penafiel averaged 2.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; AVS averaged 1.2 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Penafiel.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Penafiel

3-4-3

Coach: José Manuel Aira

Goalkeeper

1Miguel Oliveira

Defence

5Jaime Sánchez
6Adrián Pica
2Iano Imbene
27Gonçalo Negrão
7Douglas Borel

Midfield

21Pedro Sá
8Àlex Carbonell

Attack

17João Pinto
9Max Svensson
10Davo

Substitutes (12)

79Tomás Teixeira
33Ricardo Schutte
50Francisco Varela
11J. Garrido
99Claudio
14Jorge Meré
4João Miguel
3Cláudio Silva
23Duarte Oliveira
38M. Ramon
13Eric Puerto
64tiago sampaio

AVS

4-3-3

Coach: Sérgio Fonseca

Goalkeeper

1Dani Rebollo

Defence

97Matheus Pivô
3L. Rosić
26Bernardo Conde
12L. Rivas
88F. Almeida

Midfield

70Roni
80Hiago Santos

Attack

19Lobato Rafael
9Rodrigo Pinho
30Talles Wander

Substitutes (9)

25Raul
6Carlos Ponck
49P. Pimentel
7Guilherme Neiva
17R. N'do
8Jorge Meireles
4Davi Schuindt
22Diogo Brasido
28André Sousa

Match Statistics

PenafielAVS

18Shots off Goal7

0Red Cards0

8Corner Kicks2

12Shots on Goal3

1Yellow Cards4

0Free Kicks0

62%Ball Possession38%

0Blocked Shots0

30Total Shots10

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.91	3.25	3.94

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.21	1.81	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.39	2.83

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.87	1.83

1st half

1	X	2
2.52	2.06	4.56

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.65	8.60	2.55

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	8.63
1.5	1.33	3.10
2.5	2.06	1.72
3.5	3.65	1.25
4.5	7.40	1.06
5.5	14.7	1.02
6.5	26.8	1.01
7.5	41.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	8.00
1	1.03	7.30
1.25	1.15	4.20
1.75	1.41	2.69
2	1.55	2.31
2.25	1.82	1.94
2.75	2.34	1.53
3	2.67	1.40
3.25	3.08	1.28
3.75	4.30	1.14
4	6.10	1.06
4.25	6.55	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	3.12	1.33
-1	2.75	1.42
-0.75	2.17	1.63
-0.5	1.91	1.88
-0.25	1.63	2.18
0	1.36	2.92

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.27	1.05
-2.25	6.86	1.07
-2	6.63	1.07
-1.75	4.43	1.16
-1.5	3.48	1.26
+0.25	1.27	3.44
+0.5	1.23	4.17
+0.75	1.12	5.23
+1	1.04	7.93
+1.25	1.01	9.60
+1.5	1.03	8.60

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.13	4.53
7.5	1.32	3.01
8.5	1.61	2.17
9.5	2.02	1.72
10.5	2.62	1.42
11.5	3.59	1.23
12.5	5.21	1.09

20 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.02	6.77
6.25	1.08	5.13
6.75	1.13	4.32
7	1.15	4.10
7.25	1.23	3.40
7.75	1.35	2.80
8	1.44	2.59
8.25	1.50	2.37
8.75	1.68	2.06
9	1.82	1.94
9.25	1.88	1.82
9.75	2.13	1.63
10	2.38	1.51
10.25	2.45	1.46
10.75	2.86	1.34
11	3.25	1.25
11.25	3.42	1.23
11.75	4.11	1.15
12	4.92	1.09
12.25	5.12	1.08