Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves• Segunda Liga, Portugal

#11.8:0.810:00Tomorrow · Estadio Do Lusitania, Lorosa0.8:1.8#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.50WHX3.25DAF23.45BTNMargin9.0%Books10Markets75Rating63 · 37Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 22:16 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.36	3.25	3.15	4.9%
Pinnacle	2.36	3.07	3.21	6.1%
Betano	2.18	3.10	3.45	7.1%
1xBet	2.33	2.99	3.17	7.9%
Marathonbet	2.31	2.99	3.14	8.6%
Betfair	2.15	3.20	3.20	9.0%
Bet365	2.35	3.20	2.80	9.5%
BetVictor	2.25	3.13	3.00	9.7%
William Hill	2.50	2.88	2.70	11.8%
SBO	2.10	2.92	2.82	17.3%
Best of all books	2.50	3.25	3.45	-0.2%
Average	2.29	3.07	3.06	8.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Lusitânia LourosaChaves

Last 10#1Table position#162.67Points per game0.6713Form pts · last 561.8Goals for · last 50.80.8Goals against · last 51.869Attack rating3169Defence rating3176Form rating2429H2H rating7193Goals model763Overall rating37

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:03 UTC

Lusitânia Lourosa

6W 2D 2L · goals 16:11 · per match 1.6 for, 1.1 against

20 Sep	A	Madalena	3-1	W
14 Sep	A	Sporting CP B	2-1	W
7 Sep	H	AVS	2-1	W
29 Aug	A	Academica	2-0	W
22 Aug	H	Torreense	2-2	D
16 Aug	A	Amarante	1-0	W
10 Aug	H	FC Porto B	2-0	W
1 Aug	A	Paredes	2-4	L
1 Aug	H	Arouca	0-2	L
29 Jul	A	Leça	0-0	D

Chaves

2W 1D 7L · goals 10:21 · per match 1.0 for, 2.1 against

4 Oct	A	Farense	0-4	L
25 Sep	H	Vitória SC	0-1	L
20 Sep	A	Guarda	3-2	W
13 Sep	H	Feirense	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Felgueiras 1932	1-2	L
23 Aug	H	AVS	2-2	D
15 Aug	A	Sporting CP B	0-1	L
8 Aug	H	Academica	1-4	L
1 Aug	A	Vitória SC	0-2	L
25 Jul	H	Guimaraes B	2-3	L

Head to head

0Lusitânia Lourosa wins

2draws

1Chaves wins

3 meetings · goals 4:6 · last 3: 0W 2D 1L for Lusitânia Lourosa

24 Jan 2026Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	Chaves2-2Lusitânia Lourosa
16 Aug 2025Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	Lusitânia Lourosa2-2Chaves
20 Oct 2024Taça de Portugal	Taça de Portugal	Chaves2-0Lusitânia Lourosa

Segunda Liga tableDivision2updated 9 Oct 21:10 UTC

In the Segunda Liga table, Lusitânia Lourosa sit 1st with 16 points from 6 games, while Chaves are 16th with 4 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	5	1	0	11:4	+7	16
2	Penafiel	7	4	1	2	14:7	+7	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	4	0	2	8:6	+2	12
4	Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	+6	11
5	Vizela	6	3	2	1	7:4	+3	11
6	Benfica B	6	3	1	2	7:5	+2	10
7	União de Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	+3	10
8	Leixoes	6	3	1	2	8:6	+2	10
9	Academica	6	3	0	3	8:10	-2	9
10	AVS	7	2	3	2	8:7	+1	9
11	Tondela	6	3	0	3	7:6	+1	9
12	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	4:6	-2	7
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	1	3	2	5:6	-1	6
14	Torreense	6	1	3	2	7:9	-2	6
15	Amarante	6	1	2	3	5:8	-3	5
16	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4
17	FC Porto B	6	1	1	4	4:13	-9	4
18	Feirense	6	0	1	5	1:8	-7	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg140%2.31X30%3.06230%3.03

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 9.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.36 → 2.31 -2.1%X3.03 → 3.06 +1.0%22.93 → 3.03 +3.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.11	1.72	5.5%
Betano	2.12	1.70	6.0%
Betfair	2.15	1.67	6.4%
Bet365	2.10	1.70	6.4%
1xBet	2.06	1.70	7.4%
Marathonbet	2.06	1.70	7.4%
BetVictor	2.02	1.68	9.0%
Best of all books	2.15	1.72	4.7%
Average	2.09	1.70	6.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	1.82	1.90	7.6%
Betfair	1.80	1.91	7.9%
1xBet	1.79	1.92	7.9%
BetVictor	1.80	1.90	8.2%
Marathonbet	1.79	1.89	8.8%
Bet365	1.83	1.83	9.3%
William Hill	1.75	1.91	9.5%
Best of all books	1.83	1.92	6.7%
Average	1.80	1.89	8.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Lusitânia Lourosa 45%Draw 45%Chaves 10%

The statistical model rates Lusitânia Lourosa at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Chaves at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.31 | 3.06 | 3.03, which imply roughly 43.3% for a Lusitânia Lourosa win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Segunda Liga table: Lusitânia Lourosa are 1st (16 pts, 11-4 goals), Chaves 16th (4 pts, 5-13).

Over their last five matches, Lusitânia Lourosa averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Chaves averaged 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Lusitânia Lourosa.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.29	3.07	3.06

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.33	1.54	1.32

Draw no bet

1	2
1.68	2.12

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.80	1.89

1st half

1	X	2
2.95	2.01	3.73

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.90	8.00	2.19

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	8.05
1.5	1.34	3.04
2.5	2.09	1.70
3.5	3.69	1.24
4.5	7.25	1.07
5.5	15.2	1.02
6.5	41.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.05	6.50
1	1.07	5.95
1.25	1.19	3.78
1.75	1.43	2.60
2	1.56	2.27
2.25	1.83	1.90
2.75	2.37	1.52
3	2.80	1.34
3.25	3.08	1.28
3.75	4.25	1.15
4	5.80	1.07
4.25	6.15	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.71	1.40
-0.5	2.25	1.62
-0.25	1.98	1.77
0	1.63	2.18
+0.25	1.46	2.54
+0.5	1.38	2.94

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.95	1.05
-2.25	6.80	1.10
-2	7.73	1.05
-1.75	5.75	1.09
-1.5	4.37	1.16
-1.25	4.09	1.20
-1	3.48	1.28
+0.75	1.22	3.81
+1	1.11	5.58
+1.25	1.09	5.93
+1.5	1.08	6.43
+1.75	1.02	8.30

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.01	7.22
6.5	1.13	4.46
7.5	1.32	2.98
8.5	1.60	2.20
9.5	2.01	1.73
10.5	2.65	1.41
11.5	3.65	1.22
12.5	5.36	1.08

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5.75	1.02	6.92
6	1.02	7.04
6.25	1.07	5.31
6.75	1.15	4.14
7	1.17	3.92
7.25	1.25	3.27
7.75	1.38	2.71
8	1.43	2.62
8.25	1.53	2.30
8.75	1.72	2.00
9	1.81	1.95
9.25	1.93	1.77
9.75	2.19	1.59
10	2.34	1.53
10.25	2.54	1.43
10.75	2.97	1.31
11	3.40	1.23
11.25	3.56	1.21
11.75	4.31	1.13
12	5.19	1.08
12.25	5.40	1.07