Penybont vs Barry Town• Premier League, Wales

#32.2:1.01-1LiveToday · Bryntirion Park, Bridgend2.0:2.4#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.83DAFX3.93PIN24.29PINMargin at best3.4%Books10Markets51Rating56 · 44Exp. goals L53.8

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 18:11 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.73	3.93	4.29	6.6%
Dafabet	1.83	3.70	3.95	7.0%
Betano	1.75	3.65	3.95	9.9%
William Hill	1.75	3.60	4.00	9.9%
Betfair	1.70	3.75	4.00	10.5%
1xBet	1.71	3.62	4.09	10.6%
Bet365	1.70	3.70	3.90	11.5%
Marathonbet	1.69	3.62	4.00	11.8%
SBO	1.76	3.29	3.63	14.8%
BetVictor	1.65	3.20	3.60	19.6%
Best of all books	1.83	3.93	4.29	3.4%
Average	1.73	3.61	3.94	11.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PenybontBarry Town

Last 10#3Table position#42.25Points per game2.0812Form pts · last 572.2Goals for · last 52.01.0Goals against · last 52.452Attack rating4871Defence rating2963Form rating3750H2H rating5052Goals model4856Overall rating44

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 16:51 UTC

Penybont

7W 2D 1L · goals 20:9 · per match 2.0 for, 0.9 against

3 Oct	A	GAP Connah S Quay FC	0-1	L
26 Sep	H	Airbus UK	2-1	W
18 Sep	A	Ammanford AFC	5-1	W
15 Sep	H	Briton Ferry	3-2	W
11 Sep	A	Trefelin	1-0	W
5 Sep	H	Colwyn Bay	1-0	W
31 Aug	A	Cambrian & Clydach	2-2	D
28 Aug	H	Flint Town United	1-1	D
21 Aug	H	Llandudno	2-1	W
14 Aug	A	Haverfordwest County AFC	3-0	W

Barry Town

6W 1D 3L · goals 22:17 · per match 2.2 for, 1.7 against

3 Oct	A	Caernarfon Town	1-0	W
26 Sep	H	GAP Connah S Quay FC	1-4	L
18 Sep	A	Colwyn Bay	2-5	L
15 Sep	H	Ammanford AFC	2-2	D
11 Sep	H	Llandudno	4-1	W
5 Sep	A	The New Saints	0-1	L
31 Aug	A	Briton Ferry	4-1	W
28 Aug	H	Airbus UK	4-2	W
21 Aug	A	Holywell	3-1	W
15 Aug	H	Cardiff MET	1-0	W

Head to head

9Penybont wins

6draws

6Barry Town wins

21 meetings · goals 32:26 · last 10: 3W 4D 3L for Penybont

3 Apr 2026Premier League	Premier League	Penybont0-2Barry Town
3 Mar 2026Premier League	Premier League	Barry Town1-0Penybont
9 Dec 2025Premier League	Premier League	Penybont1-1Barry Town
22 Aug 2025Premier League	Premier League	Barry Town2-3Penybont
26 Dec 2024Premier League	Premier League	Barry Town1-2Penybont
22 Oct 2024League Cup	League Cup	Barry Town3-2Penybont
4 Oct 2024Premier League	Premier League	Penybont4-1Barry Town
29 Mar 2024Premier League	Premier League	Barry Town0-0Penybont
10 Feb 2024Premier League	Premier League	Penybont2-2Barry Town
28 Nov 2023Premier League	Premier League	Barry Town1-1Penybont

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 9 Oct 00:31 UTC

In the Premier League table, Penybont sit 3rd with 27 points from 12 games, while Barry Town are 4th with 25 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	The New Saints	12	11	1	0	38:5	+33	34
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	12	9	1	2	28:8	+20	28
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	+12	27
4	Barry Town	12	8	1	3	27:20	+7	25
5	Caernarfon Town	12	7	2	3	35:14	+21	23
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21:15	+6	22
7	Cardiff MET	12	6	3	3	23:13	+10	21
8	Airbus UK	12	6	0	6	21:17	+4	18
9	Cambrian & Clydach	12	5	3	4	21:32	-11	18
10	Llandudno	12	5	1	6	21:19	+2	16
11	Briton Ferry	12	3	3	6	11:20	-9	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	12	3	1	8	7:17	-10	10
13	Flint Town United	12	2	2	8	12:24	-12	8
14	Ammanford AFC	12	1	3	8	9:32	-23	6
15	Trefelin	12	0	3	9	5:30	-25	3
16	Holywell	12	0	2	10	13:38	-25	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg152%1.73X25%3.61223%3.94

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.90 → 1.73 -8.9%X3.44 → 3.61 +4.9%23.49 → 3.94 +12.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.72	2.13	5.1%
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
SBO	1.68	2.11	6.9%
Betano	1.72	2.05	6.9%
1xBet	1.68	2.02	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.68	2.02	9.0%
BetVictor	1.55	1.80	20.1%
Best of all books	1.72	2.13	5.1%
Average	1.68	2.03	8.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.67	2.10	7.5%
Bet365	1.73	2.00	7.8%
Betano	1.67	2.07	8.2%
1xBet	1.65	2.08	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.65	2.05	9.4%
BetVictor	1.50	1.87	20.1%
Best of all books	1.73	2.10	5.4%
Average	1.65	2.03	10.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Penybont 45%Draw 45%Barry Town 10%

The statistical model rates Penybont at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Barry Town at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.73 | 3.61 | 3.94, which imply roughly 57.8% for a Penybont win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Penybont are 3rd (27 pts, 22-10 goals), Barry Town 4th (25 pts, 27-20).

Over their last five matches, Penybont averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Barry Town averaged 2 scored and 2.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Penybont or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.73	3.61	3.94

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.18	1.96	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.33	2.84

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.64	2.03

1st half

1	X	2
2.26	2.28	4.40

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.59	13.3	2.46

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	9.44
1.5	1.20	3.66
2.5	1.68	2.03
3.5	2.61	1.39
4.5	4.41	1.13
5.5	7.57	1.03
6.5	11.4	1.01
7.5	21.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.90
1	–	9.00
1.25	1.10	5.15
1.75	1.23	3.43
2	1.34	2.98
2.25	1.51	2.27
2.75	1.88	1.79
3	2.10	1.59
3.25	2.34	1.46
3.75	3.15	1.27
4	4.10	1.16
4.25	4.41	1.14
4.75	5.90	1.07
5	8.10	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.90	1.36
-1.25	2.53	1.41
-1	2.24	1.54
-0.75	1.94	1.75
-0.5	1.71	2.00
-0.25	1.52	2.28

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3	10.5	1.01
-2.5	5.63	1.10
-2.25	5.27	1.12
-2	4.87	1.14
-1.75	3.52	1.24
0	1.31	2.99
+0.25	1.28	3.33
+0.5	1.23	4.00
+0.75	1.12	5.13
+1	1.05	7.33
+1.25	1.02	7.90
+1.5	1.01	8.30
+1.75	1.01	8.80