Nacional vs 
Famalicao• Primeira Liga, Portugal
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2
Average 1X2: 3.74 | 3.27 | 2.05. No per-bookmaker prices for this match.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 13:03 UTC
Nacional
1W 3D 6L · goals 8:18 · per match 0.8 for, 1.8 against
| 19 Sep | H | Famalicao | 0-4 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Alverca | 1-3 | L |
| 5 Sep | A | Sporting CP | 0-2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Estrela | 2-3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | Vitória SC | 0-1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | Estoril | 2-0 | W |
| 10 Aug | A | Santa Clara | 2-2 | D |
| 23 Jul | A | Estrela | 0-2 | L |
| 22 Jul | H | Leganes | 0-0 | D |
| 19 Jul | A | Tondela | 1-1 | D |
Famalicao
1W 6D 3L · goals 11:10 · per match 1.1 for, 1.0 against
| 19 Sep | A | Nacional | 4-0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Sporting CP | 1-1 | D |
| 5 Sep | A | Estrela | 2-2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | GIL Vicente | 0-0 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Santa Clara | 0-1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | Maritimo | 1-2 | L |
| 7 Aug | A | Estoril | 1-1 | D |
| 31 Jul | H | Como | 2-3 | L |
| 28 Jul | A | Lens | 0-0 | D |
| 28 Jul | H | Crystal Palace | 0-0 | D |
Head to head
8 meetings · goals 9:10 · last 8: 3W 1D 4L for Nacional
| 21 Mar 2026Primeira Liga | Primeira Liga | Famalicao1-0Nacional |
| 1 Nov 2025Primeira Liga | Primeira Liga | Nacional0-1Famalicao |
| 1 Mar 2025Primeira Liga | Primeira Liga | Nacional2-1Famalicao |
| 29 Sep 2024Primeira Liga | Primeira Liga | Famalicao0-0Nacional |
| 16 May 2021Primeira Liga | Primeira Liga | Famalicao3-0Nacional |
| 30 Jan 2021Primeira Liga | Primeira Liga | Nacional2-1Famalicao |
| 4 Feb 2018Segunda Liga | Segunda Liga | Famalicao3-2Nacional |
| 23 Aug 2017Segunda Liga | Segunda Liga | Nacional3-0Famalicao |
Primeira Liga tablePrimeira Ligaupdated 9 Oct 00:31 UTC
In the Primeira Liga table, Nacional sit 15th with 4 points from 7 games, while Famalicao are 13th with 7 points from 7.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | +15 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | GIL Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | -7 | 2 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.1% margin.
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Nacional at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Famalicao at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.74 | 3.27 | 2.05, which imply roughly 30.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Primeira Liga table: Nacional are 15th (4 pts, 7-15 goals), Famalicao 13th (7 pts, 9-7).
Over their last five matches, Nacional averaged 1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Famalicao averaged 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Famalicao.
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Starting Lineups
Nacional
4-2-3-1Coach: Alexandre Santos
Goalkeeper
- 1Renato Bellucci
Defence
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 38Zé Vitor
- 5José Gomes
Midfield
- 6Matheus Dias
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 15C. Labidi
- 12Song Min-Kyu
Attack
- 9A. Obando
Substitutes (11)
- 31D. Dongmo
- 14Ivanildo Fernandes
- 11S. Gavriel
- 7M. Jensen
- 13João Gonçalves
- 21W. Kokolo
- 23Mateus Iseppe
- 50Kevyn
- 99Pablo Ruan
- 52Wesley Gasolina
- 10Daniel Júnior
Famalicao
4-2-3-1Coach: Carlos Carvalhal
Goalkeeper
- 25L. Carević
Defence
- 17Rodrigo Pinheiro
- 15Víctor Rofino
- 4F. van Breemen
- 28Pedro Francisco
Midfield
- 14Mathias De Amorim
- 8Marcos Peña
- 23Gil Dias
- 21Tamás Szücs
- 7Sorriso
Attack
- 70G. Koutsias
Substitutes (12)
- 5L. Meyer
- 19Paulo Moreira
- 3L. Realpe
- 33P. Salas
- 10Pedro Santos
- 1I. Zlobin
- 2Gustavo Garcia
- 24Mathis Jangeal
- 9U. Abubakar
- 22Gabriel
- 36M. Mattara
- 11Óscar Aranda