OddsFilter

FC Porto vs Benfica• Primeira Liga, Portugal

#12.6:0.43-1FT20/09 · Estádio do Dragão, Porto3.8:0.4#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.021XBX3.40BTN22.52PINMargin at best2.2%Books9Markets76Rating42 · 58Exp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Sep 22:38 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet2.763.442.643.2%
Pinnacle2.713.352.624.9%
Betano2.723.302.625.2%
Betfair2.703.302.605.8%
Bet3652.703.302.556.6%
Marathonbet2.653.302.537.6%
William Hill2.623.252.508.9%
BetVictor2.603.302.459.6%
SBO2.483.042.4014.9%
Best of all books2.763.442.643.2%
Average2.663.292.557.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

FC PortoBenfica
Last 10#1Table position#33.00Points per game2.2912Form pts · last 5122.6Goals for · last 53.80.4Goals against · last 50.441Attack rating5950Defence rating5050Form rating5038H2H rating620Goals model10042Overall rating58

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:52 UTC

FC Porto

9W 0D 1L · goals 22:6 · per match 2.2 for, 0.6 against

2 OctADeportivo La Coruna3-1W
20 SepHBenfica3-1W
12 SepACasa Pia4-1W
8 SepHManchester City0-2L
4 SepHMoreirense2-1W
29 AugAAcademico Viseu3-0W
23 AugHArouca2-0W
15 AugARio Ave2-0W
9 AugHAlverca2-0W
1 AugHTorreense1-0W

Benfica

8W 1D 1L · goals 29:8 · per match 2.9 for, 0.8 against

20 SepAFC Porto1-3L
16 SepAAC Milan2-0W
13 SepHGIL Vicente3-1W
9 SepAMoreirense4-0W
5 SepAMaritimo3-0W
31 AugHEstoril2-1W
27 AugAAarhus3-1W
20 AugHAarhus3-1W
17 AugACasa Pia7-0W
13 AugAHeart Of Midlothian1-1D

Head to head

18FC Porto wins
10draws
9Benfica wins

37 meetings · goals 55:40 · last 10: 3W 2D 5L for FC Porto

8 Mar 2026Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaBenfica2-2FC Porto
14 Jan 2026Taça de PortugalTaça de PortugalFC Porto1-0Benfica
5 Oct 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaFC Porto0-0Benfica
6 Apr 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaFC Porto1-4Benfica
10 Nov 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaBenfica4-1FC Porto
3 Mar 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaFC Porto5-0Benfica
29 Sep 2023Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaBenfica1-0FC Porto
9 Aug 2023Super CupSuper CupBenfica2-0FC Porto
7 Apr 2023Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaBenfica1-2FC Porto
21 Oct 2022Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaFC Porto0-1Benfica

Primeira Liga tablePrimeira Ligaupdated 10 Oct 00:02 UTC

In the Primeira Liga table, FC Porto sit 1st with 21 points from 7 games, while Benfica are 3rd with 16 points from 7.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1FC Porto770018:3+1521
2Sporting CP853020:9+1118
3Benfica751122:7+1516
4Santa Clara743011:4+715
5Arouca732210:7+311
6GIL Vicente73226:5+111
7SC Braga73228:8011
8Academico Viseu73229:9011
9Estrela724114:14010
10Alverca72239:11-28
11Maritimo72238:12-48
12Moreirense82248:15-78
13Famalicao71429:7+27
14Vitória SC71245:8-35
15Nacional71157:15-84
16Rio Ave71155:15-104
17Casa Pia71153:16-134
18Estoril70253:10-72

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg133%2.89X29%3.24239%2.44

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

20 Sep 12:1120 Sep 13:311 2.91X 3.262 2.42
12.85 → 2.91 +2.1%X3.28 → 3.26 -0.6%22.45 → 2.42 -1.2%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.901.983.1%
Betano1.871.984.0%
Pinnacle1.881.964.2%
SBO1.881.944.7%
Bet3651.851.955.3%
Betfair1.871.906.1%
Marathonbet1.831.917.0%
BetVictor1.801.879.0%
Best of all books1.901.983.1%
Average1.861.945.4%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.622.256.2%
Betano1.652.157.1%
Bet3651.672.107.5%
William Hill1.672.107.5%
1xBet1.642.137.9%
BetVictor1.652.108.2%
Marathonbet1.642.108.6%
Best of all books1.672.254.3%
Average1.652.137.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

FC Porto 10%Draw 45%Benfica 45%

The statistical model rated FC Porto at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Benfica at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.89 | 3.24 | 2.44, which imply roughly 30.9% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primeira Liga table: FC Porto are 1st (21 pts, 18-3 goals), Benfica 3rd (16 pts, 22-7).

Over their last five matches, FC Porto averaged 2.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; Benfica averaged 3.8 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Benfica.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

FC Porto

4-3-3

Coach: F. Farioli

Goalkeeper

  • 99Diogo Costa

Defence

  • 20Alberto Baio
  • 5J. Bednarek
  • 4J. Kiwior
  • 52Martim Fernandes

Midfield

  • 8Victor Mow Froholdt
  • 13P. Rosario
  • 10Gabri Veiga

Attack

  • 7William
  • 19André Silva
  • 11Pepê Aquino
Substitutes (12)
  • 37Gabriel Mec
  • 64Luís Gomes
  • 29S. Giménez
  • 16Hwang In-Beom
  • 9Samu
  • 77O. Pietuszewski
  • 14Cláudio Ramos
  • 21D. Prpić
  • 17Borja Sainz
  • 74Francisco Moura
  • 22A. Varela
  • 33Souza

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Coach: Marco Silva

Goalkeeper

  • 24Samuel Soares

Defence

  • 6A. Bah
  • 44Tomás Araújo
  • 2C. Lenglet
  • 26S. Dahl

Midfield

  • 8F. Aursnes
  • 36João Palhinha
  • 27Rafa
  • 10H. Sudakov
  • 25G. Prestianni

Attack

  • 14V. Pavlidis
Substitutes (12)
  • 3A. Circati
  • 22J. Durán
  • 30C. Echeverri
  • 34S. El Karouani
  • 72A. Cabral
  • 58Daniel Banjaqui
  • 13J. Kamiński
  • 11D. Lukebakio
  • 21A. Schjelderup
  • 16Manu
  • 1A. Trubin
  • 18L. Barreiro

Match Statistics

FC PortoBenfica
310Passes accurate360
12Shots insidebox8
8Shots outsidebox4
6Blocked Shots4
12Free Kicks17
7Shots on Goal3
1Goalkeeper Saves4
7Shots off Goal5
2Offsides0
343Total passes425
20Total Shots12
3Yellow Cards3
3Corner Kicks3
0Red Cards1
17Fouls12
45%Ball Possession55%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.663.292.55

Double chance

1XX212
1.481.441.31

Draw no bet

12
1.911.83

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.652.13

1st half

1X2
3.192.153.09

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.0011.51.92

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0410.3
1.51.253.66
2.51.861.94
3.53.081.33
4.56.001.10
5.511.51.03
6.522.31.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.018.90
1.251.114.89
1.751.303.08
21.392.79
2.251.632.24
2.752.081.73
32.431.51
3.252.681.42
3.753.581.21
44.951.11
4.255.351.09
4.757.701.03
58.201.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.52.631.47
-0.252.281.61
01.951.85
+0.251.642.18
+0.51.502.55
+0.751.343.04
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.510.51.02
-29.601.01
-1.757.131.05
-1.55.361.12
-1.254.811.13
-14.461.17
-0.753.191.32
+11.194.18
+1.251.154.62
+1.51.125.21
+1.751.076.99
+21.029.25
+2.51.029.90

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
7.51.672.10
8.52.071.70

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0310.3
5.51.057.50
6.51.134.60
7.51.273.14
8.51.522.32
9.51.911.83
10.52.431.48
11.53.221.26
12.54.421.14
13.56.051.07
14.58.501.05
15.510.81.03
16 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.055.32
71.153.79
7.751.283.02
81.332.77
8.251.402.50
8.751.582.17
91.672.09
9.251.821.92
9.752.051.72
102.141.64
10.252.281.48
10.752.651.36
112.781.33
11.253.061.24
123.591.17
134.721.08