OddsFilter

Estoril vs Casa Pia• Primeira Liga, Portugal

#180.2:1.41-2FT20/09 · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais0.2:2.8#17

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.751XBX4.02PIN25.10BTNMargin at best1.6%Books9Markets82Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Sep 22:38 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet1.783.864.743.2%
Betano1.723.655.105.1%
Pinnacle1.713.854.765.5%
Bet3651.673.705.256.0%
Betfair1.753.754.406.5%
Marathonbet1.713.704.557.5%
William Hill1.753.504.408.4%
BetVictor1.673.604.609.4%
SBO1.753.223.7714.7%
Best of all books1.783.865.251.1%
Average1.723.654.627.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

EstorilCasa Pia
Last 10#18Table position#170.29Points per game0.571Form pts · last 540.2Goals for · last 50.21.4Goals against · last 52.850Attack rating5067Defence rating3350Form rating5050H2H rating50100Goals model053Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:52 UTC

Estoril

0W 4D 6L · goals 4:13 · per match 0.4 for, 1.3 against

20 SepHCasa Pia1-2L
14 SepASC Braga0-1L
7 SepHArouca0-0D
31 AugABenfica1-2L
22 AugHRio Ave0-2L
16 AugANacional0-2L
7 AugHFamalicao1-1D
31 JulACF Os Belenenses1-1D
25 JulHTorreense0-0D
22 JulAAlverca0-2L

Casa Pia

2W 1D 7L · goals 7:24 · per match 0.7 for, 2.4 against

20 SepAEstoril2-1W
12 SepHFC Porto1-4L
6 SepAVitória SC0-0D
30 AugHMoreirense0-1L
24 AugAGIL Vicente0-2L
17 AugHBenfica0-7L
8 AugAMaritimo0-1L
1 AugALeixoes2-6L
25 JulABenfica B0-1L
18 JulAEstrela2-1W

Head to head

6Estoril wins
5draws
1Casa Pia wins

12 meetings · goals 21:9 · last 10: 4W 5D 1L for Estoril

7 Mar 2026Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstoril0-0Casa Pia
3 Oct 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaCasa Pia2-2Estoril
29 Apr 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaCasa Pia1-3Estoril
15 Dec 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstoril0-2Casa Pia
8 Apr 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaCasa Pia0-0Estoril
10 Nov 2023Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstoril4-0Casa Pia
21 May 2023Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaCasa Pia2-2Estoril
16 Jan 2023Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstoril2-0Casa Pia
23 Apr 2021Segunda LigaSegunda LigaEstoril1-1Casa Pia
30 Dec 2020Segunda LigaSegunda LigaCasa Pia0-2Estoril

Primeira Liga tablePrimeira Ligaupdated 10 Oct 00:02 UTC

In the Primeira Liga table, Estoril sit 18th with 2 points from 7 games, while Casa Pia are 17th with 4 points from 7.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1FC Porto770018:3+1521
2Sporting CP853020:9+1118
3Benfica751122:7+1516
4Santa Clara743011:4+715
5Arouca732210:7+311
6GIL Vicente73226:5+111
7SC Braga73228:8011
8Academico Viseu73229:9011
9Estrela724114:14010
10Alverca72239:11-28
11Maritimo72238:12-48
12Moreirense82248:15-78
13Famalicao71429:7+27
14Vitória SC71245:8-35
15Nacional71157:15-84
16Rio Ave71155:15-104
17Casa Pia71153:16-134
18Estoril70253:10-72

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg155%1.71X25%3.80220%4.71

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.6% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.921.963.1%
Betano1.911.934.2%
Pinnacle1.871.974.2%
SBO1.941.884.7%
Bet3651.951.855.3%
Betfair1.901.876.1%
Marathonbet1.851.897.0%
BetVictor1.841.839.0%
Best of all books1.951.972.0%
Average1.901.905.4%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.911.914.7%
Betfair1.871.906.1%
Betano1.801.937.4%
William Hill1.801.917.9%
1xBet1.781.938.0%
BetVictor1.801.908.2%
Marathonbet1.781.908.8%
Best of all books1.911.934.2%
Average1.821.917.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Estoril 45%Draw 45%Casa Pia 10%

The statistical model rated Estoril at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Casa Pia at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.71 | 3.80 | 4.71, which imply roughly 58.5% for a Estoril win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primeira Liga table: Estoril are 18th (2 pts, 3-10 goals), Casa Pia 17th (4 pts, 3-16).

Over their last five matches, Estoril averaged 0.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Casa Pia averaged 0.2 scored and 2.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Estoril or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Estoril

4-2-3-1

Coach: Vasco Matos

Goalkeeper

  • 1Joel Robles

Defence

  • 2Ricard Sánchez
  • 15Isma Sierra
  • 6Xavi Sintes
  • 21R. Jurišić

Midfield

  • 10J. Holsgrove
  • 44M. Robin
  • 11N. Omerović
  • 12João Carvalho
  • 9A. Camblan

Attack

  • 14Y. Begraoui
Substitutes (12)
  • 90Tiago Brito
  • 35S. Amissah
  • 7André Lacximicant
  • 99R. Guitane
  • 3Fernando Medrano
  • 19Tiago Parreira Parente
  • 17Peixinho
  • 22Pedro Carvalho
  • 42J. Arnolin
  • 43fletcher lowe
  • 5A. Tsoungui
  • 16M. Turk

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

Coach: Filipe Coelho

Goalkeeper

  • 95Ivan Mandić

Defence

  • 18Geraldes
  • 3Kaly
  • 43David Sousa
  • 75Pedro Rosas

Midfield

  • 16Silvi
  • 80L. Ofori
  • 11M. El Boukammiri
  • 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
  • 98JP

Attack

  • 9Henrique Araújo
Substitutes (12)
  • 24S. Pérez
  • 19K. Prieto
  • 77B. Pauwels
  • 17E. Maurin
  • 20A. Jatta
  • 4João Goulart
  • 44Felipe Silva
  • 8Gabi Pereira
  • 90Cassiano
  • 59Abdu Dafe
  • 10Rochinha
  • 1P. Sequeira

Match Statistics

EstorilCasa Pia
300Passes accurate271
7Shots insidebox7
7Shots outsidebox4
2Blocked Shots1
11Free Kicks7
6Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal7
392Total passes347
14Total Shots11
3Yellow Cards2
7Corner Kicks4
0Goalkeeper Saves5
0Offsides3
7Fouls11
0Red Cards0
53%Ball Possession47%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.723.654.62

Double chance

1XX212
1.182.071.25

Draw no bet

12
1.293.41

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.821.91

1st half

1X2
2.272.204.89

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.609.502.69

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.049.54
1.51.273.50
2.51.901.90
3.53.151.32
4.56.091.10
5.512.31.03
6.524.51.01
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.48
11.027.90
1.251.134.60
1.751.333.04
21.422.71
2.251.662.19
2.752.101.71
32.451.50
3.252.731.39
3.753.581.21
44.801.11
4.255.151.10
58.901.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.53.011.36
-1.252.591.47
-12.261.61
-0.751.921.85
-0.51.702.14
-0.251.472.55
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.511.01.02
-39.701.01
-2.757.101.04
-2.55.731.10
-2.255.231.12
-24.771.14
-1.753.751.27
01.263.45
+0.251.213.99
+0.51.194.68
+0.751.095.87
+11.018.50
+1.51.049.37

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
4.51.702.07

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.049.00
5.51.066.60
6.51.174.20
7.51.352.83
8.51.652.11
9.52.091.68
10.52.741.39
11.53.931.19
12.55.531.10
13.57.771.03
14.510.31.03
15.512.01.02
16 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.065.10
71.173.59
7.751.362.70
81.372.62
8.251.512.29
8.751.692.00
91.871.89
9.251.931.76
9.752.221.57
102.241.56
10.252.561.41
10.752.971.30
112.831.28
11.253.581.21
123.801.15
134.971.07