Nacional8th4 pts
Estrela11th2 pts
Nacional8th4 pts
Estrela11th2 ptsIn the Primeira Liga table, Nacional sit 8th with 4 points from 3 games, while Estrela are 11th with 2 points from 2 — the full standings are below.
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rates Nacional at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Estrela at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.34 | 3.27 | 3.06, which imply roughly 42.7% for a Nacional win versus the model's 35%.
Form context from the Primeira Liga table: Nacional are 8th (4 pts, 4-3 goals), Estrela 11th (2 pts, 4-4).
Over their last five matches, Nacional averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Estrela averaged 2 scored and 2 conceded.
Statistical advice: Double chance : Nacional or draw.
Nacional vs Estrela — model comparison
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Form & Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 |  Maritimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 |  Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 |  Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Vitória SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 |  Academico Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 13 |  Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 |  SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 |  Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 |  Estoril | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Betting Odds
Full time
1
2.32
X
3.26
2
3.04
Double chance
1X
1.36
X2
1.57
12
1.31
Both teams to score
Yes
1.72
No
2.02
Match goals
Over 1.5
1.30
Under 1.5
3.35
Over 2.5
1.95
Under 2.5
1.84
Over 3.5
3.35
Under 3.5
1.30
Over 0.5
1.05
Under 0.5
9.36
Over 4.5
6.55
Under 4.5
1.09
Over 5.5
13.30
Under 5.5
1.03
Over 6.5
26.25
Under 6.5
1.01
Over 1.75
1.36
Under 1.75
2.89
Over 2
1.47
Under 2
2.52
Over 2.25
1.72
Under 2.25
2.08
Over 2.75
2.20
Under 2.75
1.62
Over 0.75
1.01
Under 0.75
8.48
Over 1
1.02
Under 1
7.70
Over 1.25
1.14
Under 1.25
4.40
Over 3
2.67
Under 3
1.43
Over 3.25
2.95
Under 3.25
1.35
Over 3.75
4.10
Under 3.75
1.16
Over 4
5.70
Under 4
1.08
Over 4.25
6.10
Under 4.25
1.06
Over 5
9.00
Under 5
1.02
Draw no bet
1
1.64
2
2.15
Asian handicap
Away 2
1.03
1st half
1
2.91
X
2.11
2
3.57
First team to score
Home
1.85
No Goal
9.20
Away
2.17
Corners 2-Way
Over 15.5
10.25
Under 15.5
1.03
Cards in match
Over 6.5
4.25
Under 6.5
1.20