FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen• Bundesliga, Germany

#82.5:1.53-4FT10/10 · MEWA Arena, Mainz2.5:1.3#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.181XBX3.921XB22.25BTNMargin at best1.4%Books10Markets95Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L53.9

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 10:25 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	3.18	3.92	2.24	1.6%
Pinnacle	3.15	3.83	2.22	2.9%
Betfair	3.10	3.90	2.20	3.4%
Dafabet	3.05	3.85	2.21	4.0%
Marathonbet	3.10	3.82	2.18	4.3%
Betano	2.92	3.80	2.25	5.0%
Bet365	3.10	3.80	2.15	5.1%
BetVictor	3.00	3.90	2.10	6.6%
William Hill	2.90	3.60	2.15	8.8%
SBO	2.81	3.54	2.16	10.1%
Best of all books	3.18	3.92	2.25	1.4%
Average	3.03	3.80	2.19	5.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen

Last 10#8Table position#41.40Points per game2.009Form pts · last 5132.5Goals for · last 52.51.5Goals against · last 51.350Attack rating5045Defence rating5550Form rating5015H2H rating8520Goals model8037Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 13:41 UTC

FSV Mainz 05

6W 2D 2L · goals 34:14 · per match 3.4 for, 1.4 against

10 Oct	H	Bayer Leverkusen	3-4	L
3 Oct	A	Waldhof Mannheim	3-0	W
19 Sep	A	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4-3	W
12 Sep	H	Eintracht Frankfurt	1-3	L
6 Sep	A	Hamburger SV	5-0	W
29 Aug	H	SC Paderborn 07	0-0	D
23 Aug	A	Krieschow	9-0	W
15 Aug	H	Bournemouth	2-1	W
8 Aug	H	Paris FC	4-0	W
1 Aug	A	Udinese	3-3	D

Bayer Leverkusen

7W 1D 2L · goals 27:11 · per match 2.7 for, 1.1 against

15 Oct	A	Lech Poznan	4-0	W
10 Oct	A	FSV Mainz 05	4-3	W
20 Sep	H	RB Leipzig	2-0	W
16 Sep	H	Celje	2-0	W
12 Sep	A	FC Augsburg	2-2	D
5 Sep	H	Union Berlin	4-0	W
29 Aug	A	SV Elversberg	2-3	L
22 Aug	A	SV Wehen	4-0	W
15 Aug	A	Newcastle	2-1	W
12 Aug	A	Nottingham Forest	1-2	L

Head to head

9FSV Mainz 05 wins

5draws

18Bayer Leverkusen wins

32 meetings · goals 38:53 · last 10: 2W 2D 6L for FSV Mainz 05

28 Feb 2026Bundesliga	Bundesliga	Bayer Leverkusen1-1FSV Mainz 05
18 Oct 2025Bundesliga	Bundesliga	FSV Mainz 053-4Bayer Leverkusen
17 May 2025Bundesliga	Bundesliga	FSV Mainz 052-2Bayer Leverkusen
14 Jan 2025Bundesliga	Bundesliga	Bayer Leverkusen1-0FSV Mainz 05
23 Feb 2024Bundesliga	Bundesliga	Bayer Leverkusen2-1FSV Mainz 05
30 Sep 2023Bundesliga	Bundesliga	FSV Mainz 050-3Bayer Leverkusen
19 Feb 2023Bundesliga	Bundesliga	Bayer Leverkusen2-3FSV Mainz 05
27 Aug 2022Bundesliga	Bundesliga	FSV Mainz 050-3Bayer Leverkusen
18 Feb 2022Bundesliga	Bundesliga	FSV Mainz 053-2Bayer Leverkusen
25 Sep 2021Bundesliga	Bundesliga	Bayer Leverkusen1-0FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga tableBundesligaupdated 16 Oct 00:31 UTC

In the Bundesliga table, FSV Mainz 05 sit 8th with 7 points from 5 games, while Bayer Leverkusen are 4th with 10 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	14:4	+10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	11:4	+7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	16:4	+12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	14:8	+6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	15:5	+10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	13:8	+5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	10:10	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	13:10	+3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	8:8	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	8:10	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	8:9	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	5:15	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	4:6	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	9:16	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	3:7	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	5:17	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	9:13	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	7:18	-11	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg131%3.03X25%3.80243%2.19

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.86 → 3.03 +5.9%X3.80 → 3.80 0.0%22.22 → 2.19 -1.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betano	1.47	2.75	4.4%
Pinnacle	1.51	2.62	4.4%
Bet365	1.50	2.62	4.8%
Betfair	1.44	2.70	6.5%
1xBet	1.44	2.55	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.44	2.55	8.7%
BetVictor	1.46	2.47	9.0%
Best of all books	1.51	2.75	2.6%
Average	1.47	2.61	6.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	1.42	2.77	6.5%
Betfair	1.36	3.00	6.9%
William Hill	1.40	2.80	7.1%
1xBet	1.41	2.73	7.6%
Bet365	1.40	2.75	7.8%
Marathonbet	1.41	2.69	8.1%
BetVictor	1.40	2.70	8.5%
Best of all books	1.42	3.00	3.8%
Average	1.40	2.78	7.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

FSV Mainz 05 10%Draw 45%Bayer Leverkusen 45%

The statistical model rated FSV Mainz 05 at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Bayer Leverkusen at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.03 | 3.80 | 2.19, which imply roughly 26.3% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Bundesliga table: FSV Mainz 05 are 8th (7 pts, 13-10 goals), Bayer Leverkusen 4th (10 pts, 14-8).

Over their last five matches, FSV Mainz 05 averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game; Bayer Leverkusen averaged 2.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Bayer Leverkusen.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

FSV Mainz 05

Coach: U. Fischer

Goalkeeper

1A. Schwolow

Defence

48K. Potulski
4S. Posch
2P. Mwene
19A. Caci

Midfield

6K. Sano
5E. Martel
3F. Gruber
10N. Amiri

Attack

23S. Becker
9P. Tietz

Substitutes (9)

16S. Bell
21D. da Costa
17B. Hollerbach
24S. Kawasaki
40M. Kinzig
11R. Königsdörffer
7Lee Jae-Sung
15L. Maloney
47R. Nakuzola

Bayer Leverkusen

Coach: Carles Martínez

Goalkeeper

1M. Flekken

Defence

12E. Tapsoba
3Miguel Gutiérrez
2F. Medina
4J. Quansah

Midfield

8R. Andrich
24Aleix García
30I. Maza

Attack

19M. Diaby
9Afonso Moreira
14P. Schick

Substitutes (9)

10M. Tillman
11M. Terrier
23N. Tella
17Lucas Vázquez
7J. Hofmann
6E. Fernández
22V. Boniface
28J. Blaswich
5L. Badé

Match Statistics

FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen

2.91Expected Goals1.68

367Passes accurate433

17Shots insidebox12

6Shots outsidebox4

7Blocked Shots3

10Free Kicks11

5Shots on Goal7

3Goalkeeper Saves1

11Shots off Goal6

442Total passes508

23Total Shots16

3Yellow Cards1

4Corner Kicks3

0Offsides1

11Fouls10

0Red Cards0

47%Ball Possession53%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.03	3.80	2.19

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.69	1.37	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
2.22	1.62

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.40	2.78

1st half

1	X	2
3.35	2.45	2.61

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.09	20.0	1.75

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	16.7
1.5	1.13	5.57
2.5	1.47	2.61
3.5	2.18	1.70
4.5	3.60	1.27
5.5	6.57	1.09
6.5	11.8	1.03
7.5	19.7	1.01
8.5	46.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	14.5
1.75	1.12	4.77
2	1.15	4.35
2.25	1.33	3.10
2.75	1.57	2.34
3	1.73	2.09
3.25	1.97	1.86
3.75	2.45	1.53
4	2.95	1.38
4.25	3.21	1.31
4.75	4.23	1.16
5	5.60	1.09
5.25	5.85	1.07

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.96	1.40
-0.25	2.66	1.48
0	2.31	1.63
+0.25	1.93	1.88
+0.5	1.71	2.16
+0.75	1.54	2.44

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	11.3	1.02
-2	11.5	1.01
-1.75	7.45	1.04
-1.5	5.83	1.10
-1.25	5.53	1.12
-1	5.12	1.14
-0.75	3.65	1.26
+1	1.35	3.09
+1.25	1.29	3.39
+1.5	1.23	3.68
+1.75	1.15	4.49
+2	1.08	6.37
+2.5	1.05	7.17
+3.5	1.02	12.0

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	11.5
1.5	1.10	6.40
2.5	1.28	3.50
3.5	1.57	2.38
4.5	2.13	1.67
5.5	3.20	1.32
6.5	4.70	1.17
7.5	6.90	1.08
8.5	9.50	1.04

3 more lines

Line	Over	Under
3	1.27	3.56
4	1.82	2.00
5	2.79	1.41

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.01	13.5
4.5	1.03	10.5
5.5	1.06	6.55
6.5	1.10	5.22
7.5	1.22	3.56
8.5	1.42	2.58
9.5	1.78	1.99
10.5	2.22	1.61
11.5	2.90	1.34
12.5	3.87	1.19
13.5	5.25	1.10
14.5	6.94	1.05
15.5	7.63	1.06
16.5	8.55	1.04
17.5	14.0	1.01

19 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.05	5.55
7	1.10	4.39
8	1.23	3.10
8.75	1.39	2.54
9	1.52	2.34
9.25	1.57	2.19
9.75	1.79	1.96
10	1.94	1.84
10.25	1.97	1.71
10.75	2.23	1.51
11	2.46	1.47
11.25	2.58	1.38
11.75	2.94	1.26
12	3.05	1.24
12.25	3.48	1.18
13	4.05	1.12
14	5.20	1.06
15	5.07	1.06
16	4.97	1.07