Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara• Segunda División RFEF - Group 5, Spain

#180.0:0.81-1FTToday1.8:2.0#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.76PINX3.50B36522.65PINMargin at best2.5%Books1Markets6Rating38 · 62Exp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Oct 12:25 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	2.15	3.20	3.00	11.1%
Best of all books	2.15	3.20	3.00	11.1%
Average	2.15	3.20	3.00	11.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Real Madrid IIIGuadalajara

Last 10#18Table position#120.60Points per game1.005Form pts · last 540.0Goals for · last 51.80.8Goals against · last 52.00Attack rating10073Defence rating2733Form rating6720H2H rating800Goals model038Overall rating62

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 09:31 UTC

Real Madrid III

2W 3D 5L · goals 5:11 · per match 0.5 for, 1.1 against

3 Oct	A	Atlético Paso	0-1	L
27 Sep	A	A Madrid III	0-2	L
13 Sep	A	CF Talavera	0-0	D
6 Sep	H	Albacete II	0-0	D
29 Aug	A	Gimnástica Segoviana	1-0	W
21 Aug	H	Atlético Baleares	0-2	L
8 Aug	A	Real Valladolid II	1-0	W
16 May	A	Estepona	1-3	L
10 May	H	Estepona	2-2	D
3 May	H	Conquense	0-1	L

Guadalajara

2W 4D 4L · goals 15:16 · per match 1.5 for, 1.6 against

3 Oct	H	Gimnástica Segoviana	3-3	D
27 Sep	A	Numancia	0-1	L
13 Sep	H	RSD Alcalá	2-1	W
6 Sep	H	Salamanca UDS	2-3	L
18 Aug	A	Marchamalo	0-1	L
23 May	H	Real Madrid II	2-2	D
17 May	A	Athletic Club II	1-2	L
9 May	H	Arenteiro	2-0	W
2 May	A	Real Avilés	2-2	D
24 Apr	A	Cacereño	1-1	D

Head to head

0Real Madrid III wins

1draws

1Guadalajara wins

2 meetings · goals 1:3 · last 2: 0W 1D 1L for Real Madrid III

1 Mar 2025Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Real Madrid III1-1Guadalajara
19 Oct 2024Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Guadalajara2-0Real Madrid III

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 tableSegunda Rfef: Group 5updated 7 Oct 14:21 UTC

In the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table, Real Madrid III sit 18th with 3 points from 5 games, while Guadalajara are 12th with 5 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	A Madrid III	5	4	0	1	8:5	+3	12
2	Numancia	5	3	2	0	5:0	+5	11
3	SS Reyes	5	3	1	1	7:3	+4	10
4	Conquense	5	3	1	1	10:7	+3	10
5	Real Valladolid II	5	3	0	2	11:4	+7	9
6	Salamanca UDS	5	3	0	2	7:5	+2	9
7	CF Talavera	5	2	2	1	7:5	+2	8
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	5	2	1	2	11:10	+1	7
9	Navalcarnero	5	2	1	2	8:8	0	7
10	RSD Alcalá	5	2	0	3	10:10	0	6
11	Real Ávila	5	2	0	3	5:8	-3	6
12	Guadalajara	5	1	2	2	8:9	-1	5
13	Atlético Paso	5	1	2	2	3:5	-2	5
14	Albacete II	5	1	2	2	7:15	-8	5
15	Atlético Tordesillas	5	1	1	3	8:10	-2	4
16	Calvo Sotelo	5	1	1	3	2:8	-6	4
17	Getafe II	5	0	3	2	3:5	-2	3
18	Real Madrid III	5	0	3	2	1:4	-3	3

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg136%2.53X29%3.12235%2.54

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.15 → 2.53 +17.7%X3.20 → 3.12 -2.5%23.00 → 2.54 -15.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.10	1.70	6.4%
Best of all books	2.10	1.70	6.4%
Average	2.10	1.70	6.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Real Madrid III 10%Draw 45%Guadalajara 45%

The statistical model rated Real Madrid III at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Guadalajara at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.53 | 3.12 | 2.54, which imply roughly 32.1% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table: Real Madrid III are 18th (3 pts, 1-4 goals), Guadalajara 12th (5 pts, 8-9).

Over their last five matches, Real Madrid III averaged 0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Guadalajara averaged 1.8 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Guadalajara.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.15	3.20	3.00

Draw no bet

1	2
1.62	2.20

1st half

1	X	2
2.88	2.10	3.60

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
2.5	2.10	1.70

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	1.95	1.85