OddsFilter

Real Madrid vs Villarreal• La Liga, Spain

#42.4:1.219:00Today · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid1.8:1.6#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.401XBX6.08PIN27.701XBMargin at best0.9%Books10Markets112Rating69 · 31Exp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 22:03 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet1.405.857.701.5%
Betano1.405.507.602.8%
Pinnacle1.366.087.253.8%
Dafabet1.395.806.604.3%
Marathonbet1.365.707.504.4%
Bet3651.365.757.005.2%
BetVictor1.365.757.005.2%
Betfair1.335.507.506.7%
William Hill1.365.006.508.9%
SBO1.344.945.4213.3%
Best of all books1.406.087.700.9%
Average1.375.597.015.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Real MadridVillarreal
Last 10#4Table position#92.14Points per game1.149Form pts · last 562.4Goals for · last 51.81.2Goals against · last 51.657Attack rating4357Defence rating4360Form rating4093H2H rating780Goals model2069Overall rating31

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:52 UTC

Real Madrid

8W 0D 2L · goals 24:9 · per match 2.4 for, 0.9 against

20 SepAAtletico Madrid1-2L
15 SepAElche3-2W
12 SepHRayo Vallecano4-1W
8 SepHInter2-1W
4 SepAReal Betis0-1L
30 AugHMalaga4-0W
26 AugHReal Sociedad4-1W
22 AugAEspanyol2-1W
16 AugAFC Schalke 043-0W
12 AugADeportivo La Coruna1-0W

Villarreal

4W 2D 4L · goals 18:16 · per match 1.8 for, 1.6 against

20 SepHLevante3-1W
17 SepAMalaga3-1W
14 SepHReal Betis1-2L
8 SepABorussia Dortmund2-3L
5 SepHDeportivo La Coruna2-3L
28 AugAAlaves0-1L
23 AugAAtletico Madrid2-2D
16 AugARacing Santander2-2D
8 AugAGalatasaray2-1W
5 AugHLevante1-0W

Head to head

16Real Madrid wins
11draws
4Villarreal wins

31 meetings · goals 64:39 · last 10: 6W 2D 2L for Real Madrid

24 Jan 2026La LigaLa LigaVillarreal0-2Real Madrid
4 Oct 2025La LigaLa LigaReal Madrid3-1Villarreal
15 Mar 2025La LigaLa LigaVillarreal1-2Real Madrid
5 Oct 2024La LigaLa LigaReal Madrid2-0Villarreal
19 May 2024La LigaLa LigaVillarreal4-4Real Madrid
17 Dec 2023La LigaLa LigaReal Madrid4-1Villarreal
8 Apr 2023La LigaLa LigaReal Madrid2-3Villarreal
19 Jan 2023Copa del ReyCopa del ReyVillarreal2-3Real Madrid
7 Jan 2023La LigaLa LigaVillarreal2-1Real Madrid
12 Feb 2022La LigaLa LigaVillarreal0-0Real Madrid

La Liga tableLa Ligaupdated 9 Oct 23:10 UTC

In the La Liga table, Real Madrid sit 4th with 15 points from 7 games, while Villarreal are 9th with 8 points from 7.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Barcelona770031:7+2421
2Atletico Madrid751116:7+916
3Real Betis75119:7+216
4Real Madrid750218:8+1015
5Sevilla741210:9+113
6Alaves732211:6+511
7Deportivo La Coruna724110:8+210
8Real Sociedad73139:13-410
9Villarreal722313:12+18
10Athletic Club62227:6+18
11Espanyol822411:1108
12Getafe72234:7-38
13Rayo Vallecano722311:16-58
14Osasuna72236:13-78
15Celta Vigo71428:6+27
16Racing Santander721411:21-107
17Levante61238:12-45
18Elche712411:17-65
19Valencia71154:13-94
20Malaga80444:13-94

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg169%1.37X17%5.59214%7.01

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

7 Oct 00:0210 Oct 00:001 1.37X 5.592 7.01
11.34 → 1.37 +2.2%X5.60 → 5.59 -0.2%27.34 → 7.01 -4.5%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Betfair1.293.803.8%
Bet3651.283.754.8%
Betano1.313.504.9%
1xBet1.253.488.7%
Marathonbet1.253.488.7%
BetVictor1.283.258.9%
Best of all books1.313.802.7%
Average1.283.546.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betano1.472.576.9%
Betfair1.442.637.5%
1xBet1.442.627.6%
Bet3651.442.627.6%
William Hill1.442.627.6%
Marathonbet1.442.588.2%
BetVictor1.402.708.5%
Best of all books1.472.705.1%
Average1.442.627.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Real Madrid 45%Draw 45%Villarreal 10%

The statistical model rates Real Madrid at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Villarreal at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.37 | 5.59 | 7.01, which imply roughly 73% for a Real Madrid win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the La Liga table: Real Madrid are 4th (15 pts, 18-8 goals), Villarreal 9th (8 pts, 13-12).

Over their last five matches, Real Madrid averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Villarreal averaged 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Real Madrid or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.375.597.01

Double chance

1XX212
1.103.091.13

Draw no bet

12
1.135.40

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.442.62

1st half

1X2
1.732.925.75

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.3734.02.99

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0122.2
1.51.058.03
2.51.283.54
3.51.742.12
4.52.591.47
5.54.311.19
6.57.981.07
7.513.71.03
8.522.71.01
9.550.5–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0123.0
1.751.037.48
21.056.95
2.251.154.56
2.751.313.23
31.392.91
3.251.582.40
3.751.911.92
42.121.70
4.252.351.56
4.752.931.35
53.501.23
5.253.881.18
66.851.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-2.252.731.45
-22.491.53
-1.752.121.73
-1.51.901.91
-1.251.692.13
-11.502.50
17 more lines
LineHomeAway
-5.511.01.01
-510.51.02
-4.58.501.06
-3.756.241.08
-3.55.201.13
-3.254.991.14
-34.581.17
-2.753.561.25
-2.52.981.37
-0.751.402.85
-0.51.333.19
-0.251.213.85
01.125.23
+0.251.135.90
+0.51.126.25
+11.0110.5
+1.51.0212.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
1.51.096.70
2.51.263.65
3.51.592.27
4.52.091.69
5.53.151.33
6.54.651.17
7.56.901.08
8.59.501.04
9.511.81.02
3 more lines
LineOverUnder
31.313.24
41.861.94
52.971.36

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0112.5
5.51.0210.3
6.51.057.32
7.51.144.64
8.51.273.21
9.51.502.40
10.51.851.89
11.52.321.54
12.53.041.32
13.54.081.18
14.55.581.10
15.56.871.06
16.59.751.03
17.511.51.02
18.513.01.01
17 more lines
LineOverUnder
71.055.35
81.143.92
8.751.243.06
91.282.82
9.251.382.60
9.751.492.26
101.602.19
10.251.732.04
10.751.881.78
112.031.72
11.252.151.60
11.752.421.44
122.501.41
12.252.811.32
133.171.22
144.151.12
155.251.06