OddsFilter

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid• La Liga, Spain

#61.4:1.014:15Tomorrow · Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz2.4:1.0#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.621XBX3.921XB21.88PINMargin at best0.3%Books10Markets97Rating46 · 55Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 16:16 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet4.573.921.851.4%
Pinnacle4.483.821.823.4%
Dafabet4.303.801.843.9%
Marathonbet4.453.821.804.2%
Betfair4.603.701.804.3%
Betano4.253.701.835.2%
BetVictor4.333.701.805.7%
Bet3654.203.801.805.7%
William Hill4.203.601.739.4%
SBO3.733.281.8112.5%
Best of all books4.603.921.851.3%
Average4.313.711.815.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AlavesAtletico Madrid
Last 10#6Table position#21.57Points per game2.297Form pts · last 591.4Goals for · last 52.41.0Goals against · last 51.037Attack rating6350Defence rating5037Form rating6338H2H rating6261Goals model3946Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:52 UTC

Alaves

5W 3D 2L · goals 16:7 · per match 1.6 for, 0.7 against

19 SepAAthletic Club0-0D
15 SepHValencia0-1L
12 SepARacing Santander1-2L
6 SepHOsasuna5-2W
28 AugHVillarreal1-0W
20 AugARayo Vallecano1-1D
15 AugHGetafe3-0W
7 AugARacing Santander1-1D
31 JulHCastellón3-0W
25 JulAGirona1-0W

Atletico Madrid

6W 1D 3L · goals 20:13 · per match 2.0 for, 1.3 against

20 SepHReal Madrid2-1W
16 SepHOsasuna4-0W
13 SepAReal Sociedad3-0W
9 SepALiverpool1-2L
5 SepAAthletic Club0-3L
29 AugASevilla3-1W
23 AugHVillarreal2-2D
19 AugHMalaga2-0W
14 AugAMarseille2-1W
9 AugAManchester City1-3L

Head to head

2Alaves wins
5draws
11Atletico Madrid wins

18 meetings · goals 11:26 · last 10: 2W 2D 6L for Alaves

18 Jan 2026La LigaLa LigaAtletico Madrid1-0Alaves
30 Aug 2025La LigaLa LigaAlaves1-1Atletico Madrid
3 May 2025La LigaLa LigaAlaves0-0Atletico Madrid
23 Nov 2024La LigaLa LigaAtletico Madrid2-1Alaves
21 Apr 2024La LigaLa LigaAlaves2-0Atletico Madrid
29 Oct 2023La LigaLa LigaAtletico Madrid2-1Alaves
2 Apr 2022La LigaLa LigaAtletico Madrid4-1Alaves
25 Sep 2021La LigaLa LigaAlaves1-0Atletico Madrid
21 Mar 2021La LigaLa LigaAtletico Madrid1-0Alaves
3 Jan 2021La LigaLa LigaAlaves1-2Atletico Madrid

La Liga tableLa Ligaupdated 9 Oct 23:10 UTC

In the La Liga table, Alaves sit 6th with 11 points from 7 games, while Atletico Madrid are 2nd with 16 points from 7.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Barcelona770031:7+2421
2Atletico Madrid751116:7+916
3Real Betis75119:7+216
4Real Madrid750218:8+1015
5Sevilla741210:9+113
6Alaves732211:6+511
7Deportivo La Coruna724110:8+210
8Real Sociedad73139:13-410
9Villarreal722313:12+18
10Athletic Club62227:6+18
11Espanyol822411:1108
12Getafe72234:7-38
13Rayo Vallecano722311:16-58
14Osasuna72236:13-78
15Celta Vigo71428:6+27
16Racing Santander721411:21-107
17Levante61238:12-45
18Elche712411:17-65
19Valencia71154:13-94
20Malaga80444:13-94

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg122%4.30X25%3.71253%1.80

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

7 Oct 00:028 Oct 03:311 4.30X 3.712 1.80
14.11 → 4.30 +4.6%X3.66 → 3.71 +1.4%21.84 → 1.80 -2.2%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.902.051.4%
Pinnacle1.901.992.9%
SBO1.842.023.9%
Betano1.852.004.1%
Marathonbet1.841.994.6%
Bet3651.802.005.6%
Betfair1.802.005.6%
BetVictor1.791.889.1%
Best of all books1.902.051.4%
Average1.841.994.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.672.156.4%
Betano1.752.026.6%
Bet3651.801.956.8%
William Hill1.752.007.1%
1xBet1.742.007.5%
BetVictor1.732.007.8%
Marathonbet1.741.988.0%
Best of all books1.802.152.1%
Average1.742.017.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Alaves 10%Draw 45%Atletico Madrid 45%

The statistical model rates Alaves at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Atletico Madrid at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.30 | 3.71 | 1.80, which imply roughly 27% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the La Liga table: Alaves are 6th (11 pts, 11-6 goals), Atletico Madrid 2nd (16 pts, 16-7).

Over their last five matches, Alaves averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Atletico Madrid averaged 2.4 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Madrid.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
4.313.711.81

Double chance

1XX212
1.991.211.26

Draw no bet

12
3.131.33

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.742.01

1st half

1X2
4.562.232.36

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.6310.21.63

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0410.3
1.51.253.72
2.51.841.99
3.53.041.36
4.55.671.11
5.511.11.03
6.520.31.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.95
11.028.40
1.251.144.66
1.751.323.19
21.402.85
2.251.642.28
2.752.071.77
32.421.54
3.252.721.43
3.753.451.25
44.651.13
4.254.901.11
59.00–

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
03.181.32
+0.252.381.56
+0.52.031.79
+0.751.812.04
+11.562.44
+1.251.432.82
15 more lines
LineHomeAway
-1.759.751.01
-1.58.971.02
-1.258.231.04
-18.001.03
-0.755.331.12
-0.54.151.22
-0.253.641.25
+1.51.343.20
+1.751.233.84
+21.125.44
+2.251.105.62
+2.51.096.15
+2.751.047.85
+31.029.80
+3.51.0211.3

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
1.51.077.50
2.51.204.20
3.51.412.79
4.51.861.86
5.52.641.44
6.53.801.24
7.55.501.13
8.57.801.06
9.510.31.03
2 more lines
LineOverUnder
41.522.48
52.281.61

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
3.51.0113.5
4.51.0213.9
5.51.038.55
6.51.115.21
7.51.233.51
8.51.442.56
9.51.781.96
10.52.231.59
11.53.001.32
12.54.071.18
13.55.651.09
14.57.131.05
15.510.51.02
16.511.81.02
17.513.51.01
17 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.055.57
71.104.32
7.751.203.33
81.243.05
8.251.322.80
8.751.452.38
91.542.31
9.251.632.09
9.751.871.87
101.971.81
10.252.091.63
10.752.361.45
112.511.45
11.252.771.34
123.101.23
134.121.12
145.271.06