OddsFilter

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid• La Liga, Spain

#22.4:1.22-1FT20/09 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid3.0:1.0#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.561XBX3.90BVC22.121XBMargin at best0.9%Books9Markets91Rating50 · 50 levelExp. goals L53.8

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Sep 13:55 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet3.743.942.021.6%
Pinnacle3.653.852.003.4%
Betfair3.604.001.954.1%
Marathonbet3.643.841.974.3%
Betano3.553.751.985.3%
Bet3653.603.801.955.4%
William Hill3.503.601.957.6%
BetVictor3.203.801.939.4%
SBO3.023.481.9612.9%
Best of all books3.744.002.021.2%
Average3.503.781.975.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico MadridReal Madrid
Last 10#2Table position#42.29Points per game2.149Form pts · last 592.4Goals for · last 53.01.2Goals against · last 51.044Attack rating5645Defence rating5545Form rating5540H2H rating6072Goals model2850Overall rating50

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:52 UTC

Atletico Madrid

6W 1D 3L · goals 20:13 · per match 2.0 for, 1.3 against

20 SepHReal Madrid2-1W
16 SepHOsasuna4-0W
13 SepAReal Sociedad3-0W
9 SepALiverpool1-2L
5 SepAAthletic Club0-3L
29 AugASevilla3-1W
23 AugHVillarreal2-2D
19 AugHMalaga2-0W
14 AugAMarseille2-1W
9 AugAManchester City1-3L

Real Madrid

8W 0D 2L · goals 24:9 · per match 2.4 for, 0.9 against

20 SepAAtletico Madrid1-2L
15 SepAElche3-2W
12 SepHRayo Vallecano4-1W
8 SepHInter2-1W
4 SepAReal Betis0-1L
30 AugHMalaga4-0W
26 AugHReal Sociedad4-1W
22 AugAEspanyol2-1W
16 AugAFC Schalke 043-0W
12 AugADeportivo La Coruna1-0W

Head to head

12Atletico Madrid wins
15draws
20Real Madrid wins

47 meetings · goals 61:75 · last 10: 3W 3D 4L for Atletico Madrid

22 Mar 2026La LigaLa LigaReal Madrid3-2Atletico Madrid
8 Jan 2026Super CupSuper CupAtletico Madrid1-2Real Madrid
27 Sep 2025La LigaLa LigaAtletico Madrid5-2Real Madrid
12 Mar 2025UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions LeagueAtletico Madrid1-0Real Madrid
4 Mar 2025UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid2-1Atletico Madrid
8 Feb 2025La LigaLa LigaReal Madrid1-1Atletico Madrid
29 Sep 2024La LigaLa LigaAtletico Madrid1-1Real Madrid
4 Feb 2024La LigaLa LigaReal Madrid1-1Atletico Madrid
18 Jan 2024Copa del ReyCopa del ReyAtletico Madrid4-2Real Madrid
10 Jan 2024Super CupSuper CupReal Madrid5-3Atletico Madrid

La Liga tableLa Ligaupdated 9 Oct 23:10 UTC

In the La Liga table, Atletico Madrid sit 2nd with 16 points from 7 games, while Real Madrid are 4th with 15 points from 7.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Barcelona770031:7+2421
2Atletico Madrid751116:7+916
3Real Betis75119:7+216
4Real Madrid750218:8+1015
5Sevilla741210:9+113
6Alaves732211:6+511
7Deportivo La Coruna724110:8+210
8Real Sociedad73139:13-410
9Villarreal722313:12+18
10Athletic Club62227:6+18
11Espanyol822411:1108
12Getafe72234:7-38
13Rayo Vallecano722311:16-58
14Osasuna72236:13-78
15Celta Vigo71428:6+27
16Racing Santander721411:21-107
17Levante61238:12-45
18Elche712411:17-65
19Valencia71154:13-94
20Malaga80444:13-94

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg127%3.51X25%3.78248%2.01

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.482.744.1%
Betano1.472.754.4%
Bet3651.442.755.8%
Betfair1.402.886.2%
1xBet1.432.588.7%
Marathonbet1.432.588.7%
BetVictor1.442.548.8%
Best of all books1.482.882.3%
Average1.442.696.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betano1.422.776.5%
Betfair1.402.807.1%
1xBet1.422.697.6%
Bet3651.442.627.6%
William Hill1.442.627.6%
BetVictor1.402.757.8%
Marathonbet1.422.658.2%
Best of all books1.442.805.2%
Average1.422.707.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico Madrid 35%Draw 35%Real Madrid 30%

The statistical model rated Atletico Madrid at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Real Madrid at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.51 | 3.78 | 2.01, which imply roughly 28.5% for a Atletico Madrid win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the La Liga table: Atletico Madrid are 2nd (16 pts, 16-7 goals), Real Madrid 4th (15 pts, 18-8).

Over their last five matches, Atletico Madrid averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Real Madrid averaged 3 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Atletico Madrid or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

Coach: D. Simeone

Goalkeeper

  • 13J. Oblak

Defence

  • 14Marcos Llorente
  • 18Marc Pubill
  • 21C. Romero
  • 17D. Hancko

Midfield

  • 20G. Simeone
  • 10Álex Baena
  • 5J. Cardoso
  • 22Álex Grimaldo

Attack

  • 7Lee Kang-In
  • 15J. David
Substitutes (12)
  • 46J. Castillo
  • 19J. Álvarez
  • 27J. Dominguez
  • 23M. Hjulmand
  • 6Koke
  • 24Robin Le Normand
  • 11A. Lookman
  • 4Rodrigo Mendoza
  • 1J. Musso
  • 16Arnau Ortiz
  • 3O. Vargas
  • 30Dani Martínez

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

Coach: José Mourinho

Goalkeeper

  • 1T. Courtois

Defence

  • 24D. Dumfries
  • 16I. Konaté
  • 4D. Huijsen
  • 17Marc Cucurella

Midfield

  • 8F. Valverde
  • 14A. Tchouaméni
  • 15A. Güler
  • 5J. Bellingham
  • 7Vinícius Júnior

Attack

  • 10Kylian Mbappé
Substitutes (12)
  • 2Raúl Asencio
  • 6E. Camavinga
  • 18Álvaro Fernández
  • 21Brahim Díaz
  • 25Y. Diomande
  • 9Endrick
  • 19Carlos Espí
  • 13A. Lunin
  • 27Thiago Pitarch
  • 22A. Rüdiger
  • 20Bernardo Silva
  • 12T. Alexander-Arnold

Match Statistics

Atletico MadridReal Madrid
556Passes accurate338
13Shots insidebox3
5Shots outsidebox5
5Blocked Shots1
6Free Kicks18
9Shots on Goal3
2Goalkeeper Saves5
4Shots off Goal4
2Offsides2
618Total passes394
18Total Shots8
2Yellow Cards2
3Corner Kicks1
0Red Cards1
19Fouls6
61%Ball Possession39%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
3.503.781.97

Double chance

1XX212
1.831.291.24

Draw no bet

12
2.601.45

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.422.70

1st half

1X2
3.742.432.39

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.2119.91.67

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0217.6
1.51.115.68
2.51.442.69
3.52.131.73
4.53.391.29
5.56.101.10
6.511.81.03
7.520.31.01
8.550.5–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0314.5
1.751.124.77
21.164.27
2.251.323.19
2.751.552.39
31.692.14
3.251.921.91
3.752.381.56
42.851.40
4.253.131.33
4.753.971.19
55.101.11
5.255.301.09
69.20–

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
02.671.49
+0.252.131.70
+0.51.861.97
+0.751.662.19
+11.462.63
+1.251.382.93
15 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.512.01.02
-1.758.401.02
-1.56.651.08
-1.256.411.09
-16.051.11
-0.754.191.19
-0.53.411.30
-0.253.091.38
+1.51.313.24
+1.751.253.73
+21.125.15
+2.251.135.90
+2.51.105.88
+31.0110.6
+3.51.0311.1

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
4.51.353.05
5.51.652.15
61.881.90
6.52.121.67
7.52.871.38
8.54.001.22

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0212.0
5.51.049.00
6.51.066.60
7.51.164.37
8.51.322.98
9.51.582.24
10.51.981.77
11.52.551.45
12.53.391.26
13.54.731.13
14.56.601.06
15.58.751.05
16.510.81.03
17.512.51.01
18.514.01.01
16 more lines
LineOverUnder
71.084.67
81.203.32
8.751.332.83
91.442.55
9.251.472.42
9.751.632.11
101.821.98
10.251.841.86
10.752.081.67
112.261.56
11.252.361.49
11.752.711.37
122.851.27
12.253.141.27
133.771.15
144.871.07