Burgos vs Eldense• Segunda División, Spain

#81.4:1.01-0FT27/09 · Municipal El Plantio, Burgos0.8:1.0#15

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.12BTNX3.301XB24.03PINMargin at best2.3%Books9Markets68Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Sep 03:44 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.89	3.52	4.38	4.2%
Betano	1.87	3.50	4.40	4.8%
Pinnacle	1.93	3.37	4.20	5.3%
Marathonbet	1.83	3.42	4.25	7.4%
Bet365	1.80	3.30	4.50	8.1%
Betfair	1.85	3.30	3.90	10.0%
BetVictor	1.85	3.30	3.90	10.0%
William Hill	1.85	3.20	3.90	10.9%
SBO	1.93	3.00	3.37	14.8%
Best of all books	1.93	3.52	4.50	2.4%
Average	1.87	3.32	4.09	8.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 4 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BurgosEldense

Last 10#8Table position#151.56Points per game1.229Form pts · last 591.4Goals for · last 50.81.0Goals against · last 51.064Attack rating3650Defence rating5062Form rating3829H2H rating7184Goals model1653Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

Burgos

4W 3D 3L · goals 12:10 · per match 1.2 for, 1.0 against

12 Oct	H	Granada CF	0-1	L
3 Oct	A	Almeria	1-2	L
27 Sep	H	Eldense	1-0	W
20 Sep	A	Las Palmas	2-1	W
11 Sep	H	AD Ceuta FC	3-1	W
6 Sep	A	Oviedo	0-0	D
31 Aug	H	Real Sociedad II	2-2	D
23 Aug	A	Sporting Gijon	0-1	L
16 Aug	H	Cordoba	3-2	W
8 Aug	H	Cultural Leonesa	0-0	D

Eldense

3W 2D 5L · goals 10:12 · per match 1.0 for, 1.2 against

10 Oct	H	Cordoba	2-1	W
2 Oct	H	Oviedo	4-1	W
27 Sep	A	Burgos	0-1	L
19 Sep	H	Eibar	1-2	L
13 Sep	A	Sporting Gijon	1-0	W
5 Sep	H	Mallorca	0-0	D
29 Aug	A	Leganes	0-1	L
22 Aug	H	Cadiz	2-2	D
17 Aug	A	Almeria	0-3	L
7 Aug	A	Albacete	0-1	L

Head to head

1Burgos wins

1draws

3Eldense wins

5 meetings · goals 2:5 · last 5: 1W 1D 3L for Burgos

29 Mar 2025Segunda División	Segunda División	Eldense0-0Burgos
8 Dec 2024Segunda División	Segunda División	Burgos1-0Eldense
10 May 2024Segunda División	Segunda División	Burgos1-2Eldense
5 Nov 2023Segunda División	Segunda División	Eldense2-0Burgos
22 Dec 2022Copa del Rey	Copa del Rey	Eldense1-0Burgos

Segunda División tableSegundaupdated 17 Oct 14:02 UTC

In the Segunda División table, Burgos sit 8th with 14 points from 9 games, while Eldense are 15th with 11 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	9	7	0	2	16:5	+11	21
2	Eibar	9	7	0	2	19:10	+9	21
3	Castellón	9	6	2	1	15:4	+11	20
4	Mallorca	9	5	2	2	11:4	+7	17
5	Sabadell	9	4	4	1	10:7	+3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	5	1	3	9:8	+1	16
7	Girona	9	4	3	2	15:9	+6	15
8	Burgos	9	4	2	3	12:10	+2	14
9	Oviedo	9	4	2	3	11:9	+2	14
10	Granada CF	9	4	2	3	14:13	+1	14
11	Valladolid	9	3	3	3	13:11	+2	12
12	Tenerife	9	3	3	3	11:13	-2	12
13	Cordoba	10	4	0	6	15:20	-5	12
14	Celta de Vigo II	9	3	2	4	14:15	-1	11
15	Eldense	9	3	2	4	10:11	-1	11
16	Las Palmas	9	3	2	4	13:16	-3	11
17	Leganes	10	3	2	5	6:15	-9	11
18	FC Andorra	9	3	1	5	13:15	-2	10
19	Real Sociedad II	9	2	2	5	12:17	-5	8
20	Cadiz	9	1	4	4	11:11	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5
22	Albacete	9	0	1	8	5:20	-15	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg145%2.05X30%3.15225%3.70

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.87 → 2.04 +9.1%X3.32 → 3.16 -4.8%24.09 → 3.75 -8.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betano	2.02	1.83	4.1%
1xBet	2.04	1.81	4.3%
Pinnacle	2.14	1.72	4.9%
SBO	2.09	1.73	5.7%
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Marathonbet	1.99	1.76	7.1%
BetVictor	1.99	1.70	9.1%
Best of all books	2.14	1.83	1.4%
Average	2.05	1.75	5.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	1.83	1.90	7.3%
Bet365	1.91	1.80	7.9%
William Hill	1.85	1.85	8.1%
1xBet	1.84	1.86	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.84	1.84	8.7%
BetVictor	1.85	1.83	8.7%
Best of all books	1.91	1.90	5.0%
Average	1.85	1.85	8.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Burgos 45%Draw 45%Eldense 10%

The statistical model rated Burgos at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Eldense at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.05 | 3.15 | 3.70, which imply roughly 48.8% for a Burgos win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Segunda División table: Burgos are 8th (14 pts, 12-10 goals), Eldense 15th (11 pts, 10-11).

Over their last five matches, Burgos averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Eldense averaged 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Burgos.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Burgos

4-4-2

Coach: Sergio Francisco

Goalkeeper

13Ander Cantero

Defence

23Alberto Dadie
15Oier Luengo
8Grego
3Ignasi Vilarrasa

Midfield

14David González
20José Gragera
12Unai Vencedor
19Javi Llabrés

Attack

7Jon Karrikaburu
9Álex Forés

Substitutes (12)

21Fermin Garcia
4P. Galdames
39David Hernáiz García
24S. Lencinas
2Álex
22Brais Martínez
36I. Martinez
11Víctor Mollejo
30M. Monedero
16Curro Sánchez
18Saúl del Cerro
17Mario Cantero

Eldense

4-2-3-1

Coach: Javi Calleja

Goalkeeper

1Ramón Vila

Defence

17Jesús Clemente
5Alex Serradell
4F. Smand
3Juan Larios

Midfield

14J. Smith
15Carlos Guirao
10Fidel
12Roberto López
33Aingeru Olabarrieta

Attack

7Jorge Rastrojo

Substitutes (11)

18Guillermo Macho
8Marcos Bustillo
6Borja Calvo
19A. Ibarrondo
24Javi Martínez
11Manu Nieto
13Juanpa
29Dinis Rodrigues
2Iker Recio
20Waldo Rubio
22J. Yanda

Match Statistics

BurgosEldense

304Passes accurate342

5Shots insidebox6

1Shots outsidebox5

12Free Kicks14

2Shots on Goal4

4Goalkeeper Saves1

4Shots off Goal5

4Offsides1

394Total passes418

6Total Shots11

3Yellow Cards2

2Corner Kicks5

0Blocked Shots2

15Fouls14

0Red Cards0

48%Ball Possession52%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.87	3.32	4.09

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.21	1.89	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.36	2.96

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.85	1.85

1st half

1	X	2
2.48	2.09	4.57

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.63	9.00	2.61

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	8.90
1.5	1.31	3.19
2.5	2.05	1.75
3.5	3.59	1.25
4.5	7.22	1.07
5.5	14.0	1.03
6.5	28.2	1.01

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.28
1	1.03	7.50
1.25	1.15	4.25
1.75	1.40	2.78
2	1.52	2.40
2.25	1.80	1.99
2.75	2.33	1.58
3	2.77	1.39
3.25	3.10	1.31
3.75	4.30	1.15
4	6.00	1.06
4.25	6.40	1.05
5	9.80	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	3.02	1.36
-1	2.64	1.46
-0.75	2.12	1.67
-0.5	1.88	1.92
-0.25	1.60	2.28
0	1.35	3.07

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	13.0	1.01
-2.75	8.85	1.01
-2.5	7.23	1.05
-2.25	6.67	1.07
-2	6.18	1.08
-1.75	4.18	1.18
-1.5	3.40	1.28
+0.25	1.25	3.57
+0.5	1.23	4.15
+0.75	1.11	5.48
+1	1.01	9.00
+1.25	1.01	9.32
+1.5	1.04	8.30

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.07	5.02
6.5	1.16	3.62
7.5	1.36	2.82
8.5	1.65	2.10
9.5	2.08	1.67
10.5	2.71	1.39
11.5	3.62	1.21
12.5	4.30	1.11
13.5	5.42	1.05

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.08	4.80
7	1.20	3.35
8	1.43	2.44
9	1.85	1.91
10	2.35	1.46
11	3.05	1.24
12	4.10	1.12
13	5.30	1.06