Ards vs Institute• Championship, Northern-Ireland

#100.8:0.418:45Today2.8:1.6#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.38BVCX3.58PIN22.63BVCMargin at best8.0%Books6Markets45Rating43 · 57Exp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 13:47 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	2.38	3.40	2.63	9.5%
Bet365	2.35	3.30	2.55	12.1%
1xBet	2.29	3.38	2.57	12.2%
Marathonbet	2.29	3.38	2.57	12.2%
Pinnacle	2.30	3.48	2.49	12.4%
William Hill	2.30	3.10	2.62	13.9%
Best of all books	2.38	3.48	2.63	8.8%
Average	2.32	3.34	2.57	12.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ArdsInstitute

Last 10#10Table position#71.36Points per game1.558Form pts · last 5100.8Goals for · last 52.80.4Goals against · last 51.622Attack rating7880Defence rating2044Form rating5638H2H rating6237Goals model6343Overall rating57

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 18:02 UTC

Ards

3W 3D 4L · goals 11:12 · per match 1.1 for, 1.2 against

9 Oct	A	Newington Youth	2-0	W
3 Oct	A	Ballinamallard United	1-1	D
26 Sep	H	Strabane Athletic	0-1	L
19 Sep	A	Moyola Park	0-0	D
12 Sep	H	Rathfriland	1-0	W
4 Sep	A	Annagh United	1-2	L
28 Aug	H	Queen's University	0-3	L
22 Aug	H	Loughgall	1-2	L
15 Aug	A	Warrenpoint Town	3-1	W
11 Aug	H	Dundela	2-2	D

Institute

4W 2D 4L · goals 19:17 · per match 1.9 for, 1.7 against

10 Oct	H	H&W Welders	0-0	D
3 Oct	H	Newington Youth	7-0	W
26 Sep	A	Annagh United	0-5	L
19 Sep	H	Warrenpoint Town	2-0	W
12 Sep	A	Armagh City	5-3	W
5 Sep	A	Rathfriland	2-0	W
29 Aug	H	Newry City AFC	1-3	L
22 Aug	A	Queen's University	1-4	L
15 Aug	H	Loughgall	0-0	D
11 Aug	H	Ballinamallard United	1-2	L

Head to head

4Ards wins

7draws

11Institute wins

22 meetings · goals 24:34 · last 10: 2W 4D 4L for Ards

18 Apr 2026Championship	Championship	Institute3-1Ards
24 Jan 2026Championship	Championship	Ards0-0Institute
25 Oct 2025Championship	Championship	Ards0-3Institute
16 Aug 2025Championship	Championship	Institute2-2Ards
18 Mar 2025Championship	Championship	Institute2-3Ards
16 Nov 2024Championship	Championship	Institute2-4Ards
28 Sep 2024Championship	Championship	Ards0-0Institute
3 Feb 2024Irish Cup	Irish Cup	Institute1-0Ards
27 Jan 2024Championship	Championship	Ards2-2Institute
22 Dec 2023Championship	Championship	Institute3-2Ards

Championship tableChampionship 1updated 16 Oct 17:41 UTC

In the Championship table, Ards sit 10th with 15 points from 11 games, while Institute are 7th with 17 points from 11.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	11	6	4	1	25:14	+11	22
2	Glenavon FC	11	6	3	2	26:14	+12	21
3	Newington Youth	11	6	2	3	24:20	+4	20
4	Queen's University	11	6	1	4	20:8	+12	19
5	Newry City AFC	11	5	3	3	19:19	0	18
6	Warrenpoint Town	11	5	2	4	19:15	+4	17
7	Institute	11	5	2	4	20:17	+3	17
8	Ballinamallard United	11	5	2	4	17:16	+1	17
9	H&W Welders	11	5	1	5	18:16	+2	16
10	Ards	11	4	3	4	14:13	+1	15
11	Moyola Park	11	4	2	5	12:21	-9	14
12	Loughgall	11	3	4	4	15:21	-6	13
13	Dundela	11	2	5	4	19:23	-4	11
14	Strabane Athletic	11	2	3	6	10:20	-10	9
15	Rathfriland	11	3	0	8	11:23	-12	9
16	Armagh City	11	0	5	6	9:18	-9	5

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg139%2.32X26%3.39235%2.55

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.13 → 2.32 +8.9%X3.47 → 3.39 -2.3%22.89 → 2.55 -11.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
BetVictor	1.67	2.10	7.5%
Pinnacle	1.67	2.06	8.4%
1xBet	1.67	2.04	8.9%
Marathonbet	1.67	2.04	8.9%
Best of all books	1.70	2.10	6.4%
Average	1.68	2.07	8.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
BetVictor	1.53	2.30	8.8%
William Hill	1.57	2.20	9.1%
1xBet	1.55	2.24	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.55	2.20	10.0%
Best of all books	1.62	2.30	5.2%
Average	1.56	2.23	8.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ards 10%Draw 45%Institute 45%

The statistical model rates Ards at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Institute at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.32 | 3.39 | 2.55, which imply roughly 29.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Ards are 10th (15 pts, 14-13 goals), Institute 7th (17 pts, 20-17).

Over their last five matches, Ards averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; Institute averaged 2.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Institute.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.32	3.34	2.57

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.37	1.52	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
1.79	1.93

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.56	2.23

1st half

1	X	2
2.84	2.24	3.14

2nd half

1	X	2
2.63	2.53	2.89

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.83	14.0	24.5
HT X	6.15	5.65	6.55
HT 2	24.5	15.0	4.27

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.82	13.6	2.04

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	11.9
1.5	1.19	3.95
2.5	1.68	2.07
3.5	2.62	1.40
4.5	4.73	1.13
5.5	9.00	1.06
6.5	12.0	1.01
7.5	19.0	–

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	7.60
1.75	1.22	3.50
2	1.28	3.09
2.25	1.47	2.40
2.75	1.83	1.83
3	2.11	1.60
3.25	2.38	1.47
3.75	3.14	1.27
4	4.15	1.16
4.25	4.10	1.16

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.73	1.38
-0.5	2.32	1.54
-0.25	2.02	1.69
0	1.76	1.95
+0.25	1.56	2.23
+0.5	1.47	2.53

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.70	1.02
-2	8.70	1.01
-1.75	5.90	1.13
-1.5	4.50	1.15
-1.25	4.08	1.18
-1	3.62	1.23
+0.75	1.31	3.05
+1	1.16	4.28
+1.25	1.17	4.43
+1.5	1.12	5.22
+1.75	1.10	6.80
+2.5	1.01	9.90