QPR vs Derby• Championship, England

#80.8:1.04-1FTToday · Loftus Road, London0.6:1.6#23

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.72BTNX4.05BTN25.10BTNMargin at best2.4%Books10Markets99Rating56 · 44Exp. goals L52.0

Price board · 1X2captured 14 Oct 16:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.72	4.05	5.10	2.4%
Pinnacle	1.69	3.97	5.14	3.8%
Dafabet	1.68	4.00	5.00	4.5%
Betfair	1.67	3.80	5.00	6.2%
1xBet	1.66	3.85	4.80	7.0%
Bet365	1.67	3.80	4.75	7.2%
BetVictor	1.65	3.75	5.00	7.3%
Marathonbet	1.64	3.85	4.85	7.6%
William Hill	1.67	3.70	4.80	7.7%
SBO	1.60	3.66	4.79	10.7%
Best of all books	1.72	4.05	5.14	2.3%
Average	1.67	3.84	4.92	6.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

QPRDerby

Last 10#8Table position#231.56Points per game0.674Form pts · last 520.8Goals for · last 50.61.0Goals against · last 51.657Attack rating4362Defence rating3867Form rating3340H2H rating6054Goals model4656Overall rating44

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 14 Oct 16:20 UTC

QPR

3W 6D 1L · goals 12:9 · per match 1.2 for, 0.9 against

9 Oct	A	West Ham	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Preston	2-2	D
12 Sep	A	West Brom	1-1	D
9 Sep	A	Charlton	0-0	D
5 Sep	H	Middlesbrough	0-1	L
2 Sep	H	Cardiff	2-1	W
29 Aug	A	Blackburn	2-1	W
22 Aug	H	Bolton	0-0	D
15 Aug	A	Portsmouth	3-1	W
8 Aug	H	Millwall	1-1	D

Derby

1W 3D 6L · goals 9:17 · per match 0.9 for, 1.7 against

10 Oct	H	Wrexham	1-1	D
19 Sep	A	Burnley	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Birmingham	1-2	L
9 Sep	H	West Brom	0-1	L
5 Sep	A	West Ham	0-3	L
1 Sep	A	Portsmouth	2-0	W
29 Aug	H	Swansea	0-3	L
22 Aug	H	Cardiff	2-2	D
15 Aug	A	Charlton	1-2	L
8 Aug	H	Lincoln	1-2	L

Head to head

8QPR wins

3draws

10Derby wins

21 meetings · goals 20:21 · last 10: 5W 1D 4L for QPR

25 Apr 2026Championship	Championship	QPR2-3Derby
25 Oct 2025Championship	Championship	Derby1-0QPR
14 Feb 2025Championship	Championship	QPR4-0Derby
5 Oct 2024Championship	Championship	Derby2-0QPR
18 Apr 2022Championship	Championship	QPR1-0Derby
29 Nov 2021Championship	Championship	Derby1-2QPR
23 Jan 2021Championship	Championship	QPR0-1Derby
4 Nov 2020Championship	Championship	Derby0-1QPR
25 Feb 2020Championship	Championship	QPR2-1Derby
30 Nov 2019Championship	Championship	Derby1-1QPR

Championship tableChampionshipupdated 14 Oct 20:40 UTC

In the Championship table, QPR sit 8th with 14 points from 9 games, while Derby are 23rd with 6 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	16:7	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	20:14	+6	21
3	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	17:11	+6	17
4	West Brom	10	5	2	3	12:10	+2	17
5	West Ham	9	4	4	1	23:12	+11	16
6	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	17:16	+1	16
7	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	15:13	+2	15
8	QPR	9	3	5	1	11:8	+3	14
9	Wolves	9	4	2	3	16:14	+2	14
10	Millwall	10	4	2	4	16:16	0	14
11	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	12:14	-2	14
12	Charlton	10	3	5	2	10:13	-3	14
13	Southampton	9	5	2	2	20:10	+10	13
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	15:18	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	12:11	+1	12
16	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	11:15	-4	11
17	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	7:11	-4	11
18	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	16:15	+1	10
19	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17:19	-2	9
20	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	9:11	-2	8
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	15:19	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	8:19	-11	8
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	8:20	-12	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg154%1.74X25%3.70221%4.55

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.75 → 1.67 -4.6%X3.75 → 3.86 +2.9%24.32 → 4.89 +13.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.92	1.97	2.8%
Betano	1.90	1.95	3.9%
SBO	1.83	2.01	4.4%
Bet365	1.91	1.91	4.7%
Betfair	1.87	1.87	7.0%
1xBet	1.83	1.91	7.0%
Marathonbet	1.83	1.91	7.0%
BetVictor	1.81	1.86	9.0%
Best of all books	1.92	2.01	1.8%
Average	1.86	1.92	5.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.87	1.90	6.1%
Betano	1.85	1.90	6.7%
Bet365	1.80	1.91	7.9%
1xBet	1.79	1.92	7.9%
BetVictor	1.80	1.90	8.2%
William Hill	1.75	1.95	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.79	1.89	8.8%
Best of all books	1.87	1.95	4.8%
Average	1.81	1.91	7.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

QPR 45%Draw 45%Derby 10%

The statistical model rated QPR at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Derby at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.74 | 3.70 | 4.55, which imply roughly 57.5% for a QPR win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: QPR are 8th (14 pts, 11-8 goals), Derby 23rd (6 pts, 8-15).

Over their last five matches, QPR averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Derby averaged 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : QPR or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

QPR

4-3-3

Coach: Julien Stéphan

Goalkeeper

1P. Charles

Defence

2K. Adamson
3J. Dunne
5R. Edwards
12B. Kemper

Midfield

24N. Madsen
20H. Vale
18G. Kamara

Attack

15A. Lloyd
26Rayan Jawad Kolli
11P. Smyth

Substitutes (9)

23I. Alemayehu
6J. Clarke-Salter
22R. Kone
27A. Mbengue
4L. Morrison
17K. Poku
40J. Varane
13C. Ward
33Leon Scarlett

Derby

4-2-3-1

Coach: J. Eustace

Goalkeeper

31J. Vickers

Defence

23J. Ward
6S. Langås
28D. Sanderson
26R. Hedges

Midfield

20A. Mowatt
4D. Ozoh
16M. Fuseini
8B. Clark
11S. Szmodics

Attack

9C. Morris

Substitutes (9)

10R. Brewster
29O. Fraulo
19H. Meister
24R. Nyambe
12R. O'Donnell
15L. Salvesen
27L. Travis
33C. Blackett-Taylor
13F. Bilbija

Match Statistics

QPRDerby

1.6Expected Goals0.92

362Passes accurate365

6Shots insidebox13

3Shots outsidebox2

10Free Kicks10

7Shots on Goal6

5Goalkeeper Saves3

2Shots off Goal5

439Total passes463

9Total Shots15

2Yellow Cards3

1Corner Kicks3

0Blocked Shots4

0Offsides2

10Fouls10

0Red Cards0

48%Ball Possession52%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.66	3.84	4.92

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.16	2.17	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
1.25	3.64

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.81	1.91

1st half

1	X	2
2.22	2.25	5.07

2nd half

1	X	2
1.99	2.58	4.68

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.48	15.4	44.1
HT X	4.45	5.77	10.2
HT 2	23.0	15.9	8.13

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.51	12.0	2.72

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	10.2
1.5	1.26	3.58
2.5	1.86	1.92
3.5	3.12	1.33
4.5	6.20	1.10
5.5	11.8	1.03
6.5	22.5	1.01
7.5	50.5	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.05	7.20
1.25	1.13	4.67
1.75	1.30	3.08
2	1.41	2.77
2.25	1.62	2.22
2.75	2.06	1.73
3	2.46	1.50
3.25	2.68	1.40
3.75	3.62	1.22
4	4.73	1.13
4.25	5.45	1.08
4.75	7.73	1.03
5	8.70	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.83	1.39
-1.25	2.49	1.49
-1	2.16	1.68
-0.75	1.83	1.94
-0.5	1.65	2.24
-0.25	1.43	2.64

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	10.5	1.03
-3	9.50	1.01
-2.75	7.20	1.05
-2.5	5.74	1.10
-2.25	5.18	1.12
-2	4.76	1.14
-1.75	3.47	1.27
0	1.24	3.68
+0.25	1.18	4.25
+0.5	1.15	4.85
+0.75	1.07	6.56
+1	1.02	8.70
+1.5	1.02	9.80

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.33	3.18
3	1.39	2.87
3.5	1.76	2.00
4	2.11	1.69
4.5	2.34	1.57
5	3.23	1.31
5.5	3.10	1.34

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.02	10.3
6.5	1.07	6.51
7.5	1.14	4.46
8.5	1.29	3.08
9.5	1.54	2.29
10.5	1.92	1.82
11.5	2.43	1.49
12.5	3.22	1.28
13.5	4.46	1.15
14.5	6.10	1.08
15.5	9.00	1.04
16.5	10.3	1.03

24 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.02	6.95
7	1.06	5.09
7.25	1.06	5.51
7.75	1.11	4.58
8	1.16	3.67
8.25	1.20	3.63
8.75	1.30	2.91
9	1.34	2.75
9.25	1.42	2.45
9.75	1.59	2.15
10	1.69	2.09
10.25	1.81	1.93
10.75	2.04	1.73
11	2.14	1.65
11.25	2.24	1.50
11.75	2.58	1.38
12	2.67	1.36
12.25	2.95	1.31
12.75	3.46	1.22
13	3.39	1.19
13.25	4.18	1.14
13.75	5.04	1.09
14	4.42	1.10
14.25	6.31	1.04