Stoke City vs Middlesbrough• Championship, England

#42.2:0.819:00Today · bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent2.0:1.4#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.83PINX3.79PIN21.98BTNMargin at best3.0%Books10Markets91Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L53.2

Price board · 1X2captured 13 Oct 16:23 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.83	3.79	1.96	3.5%
Dafabet	3.80	3.70	1.98	3.8%
Betano	3.65	3.70	1.98	4.9%
Betfair	3.80	3.70	1.91	5.7%
BetVictor	3.70	3.70	1.93	5.9%
1xBet	3.64	3.64	1.92	7.0%
Bet365	3.80	3.50	1.91	7.2%
Marathonbet	3.64	3.64	1.90	7.6%
William Hill	3.50	3.50	1.95	8.4%
SBO	3.46	3.32	1.93	10.8%
Best of all books	3.83	3.79	1.98	3.0%
Average	3.68	3.62	1.94	6.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Stoke CityMiddlesbrough

Last 10#4Table position#21.78Points per game2.0013Form pts · last 582.2Goals for · last 52.00.8Goals against · last 51.452Attack rating4864Defence rating3654Form rating4629H2H rating7168Goals model3253Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Oct 15:30 UTC

Stoke City

5W 2D 3L · goals 16:14 · per match 1.6 for, 1.4 against

10 Oct	A	Bolton	2-1	W
19 Sep	H	Sheffield Utd	2-1	W
12 Sep	A	Watford	2-1	W
8 Sep	A	Cardiff	1-1	D
5 Sep	H	Charlton	4-0	W
1 Sep	H	Norwich	1-0	W
29 Aug	A	Wolves	1-4	L
25 Aug	H	Hull City	1-1	D
22 Aug	A	Southampton	1-3	L
15 Aug	H	Swansea	1-2	L

Middlesbrough

5W 3D 2L · goals 18:15 · per match 1.8 for, 1.5 against

10 Oct	H	Wolves	1-0	W
19 Sep	A	Birmingham	2-2	D
15 Sep	H	Millwall	2-2	D
12 Sep	H	Norwich	4-3	W
8 Sep	A	Crystal Palace	0-3	L
5 Sep	A	QPR	1-0	W
2 Sep	A	Burnley	1-1	D
29 Aug	H	West Brom	3-1	W
25 Aug	A	Doncaster	3-1	W
22 Aug	A	Blackburn	1-2	L

Head to head

5Stoke City wins

6draws

8Middlesbrough wins

19 meetings · goals 20:22 · last 10: 3W 3D 4L for Stoke City

21 Jan 2026Championship	Championship	Stoke City1-2Middlesbrough
30 Sep 2025Championship	Championship	Middlesbrough0-0Stoke City
25 Feb 2025Championship	Championship	Stoke City1-3Middlesbrough
28 Sep 2024Championship	Championship	Middlesbrough2-0Stoke City
27 Aug 2024League Cup	League Cup	Middlesbrough0-5Stoke City
2 Mar 2024Championship	Championship	Stoke City2-0Middlesbrough
28 Oct 2023Championship	Championship	Middlesbrough0-2Stoke City
14 Mar 2023Championship	Championship	Middlesbrough1-1Stoke City
17 Aug 2022Championship	Championship	Stoke City2-2Middlesbrough
30 Apr 2022Championship	Championship	Middlesbrough3-1Stoke City

Championship tableChampionshipupdated 13 Oct 15:20 UTC

In the Championship table, Stoke City sit 4th with 16 points from 9 games, while Middlesbrough are 2nd with 18 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	15:7	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17:12	+5	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	23:12	+11	16
4	Stoke City	9	5	1	3	15:13	+2	16
5	Wolves	8	4	2	2	15:11	+4	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	11:8	+3	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	13:11	+2	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	16:15	+1	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	10:9	+1	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12:13	-1	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	20:10	+10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	8:11	-3	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	14:13	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	12:11	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10:13	-3	11
16	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	7:11	-4	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	12:17	-5	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17:19	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	9:11	-2	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7:14	-7	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	11:14	-3	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	13:17	-4	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	8:16	-8	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg126%3.68X26%3.62248%1.94

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.63 → 3.68 +1.4%X3.68 → 3.62 -1.6%21.96 → 1.94 -1.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.80	2.10	3.2%
Betano	1.80	2.05	4.3%
SBO	1.80	2.04	4.6%
Bet365	1.80	2.00	5.6%
1xBet	1.74	2.02	7.0%
Marathonbet	1.74	2.02	7.0%
Betfair	1.75	2.00	7.1%
BetVictor	1.72	1.97	8.9%
Best of all books	1.80	2.10	3.2%
Average	1.77	2.02	5.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Betano	1.67	2.12	7.1%
William Hill	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Bet365	1.67	2.10	7.5%
1xBet	1.64	2.13	7.9%
BetVictor	1.62	2.15	8.2%
Marathonbet	1.64	2.10	8.6%
Best of all books	1.67	2.20	5.3%
Average	1.64	2.14	7.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Stoke City 45%Draw 45%Middlesbrough 10%

The statistical model rates Stoke City at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Middlesbrough at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.68 | 3.62 | 1.94, which imply roughly 27.2% for a Stoke City win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Stoke City are 4th (16 pts, 15-13 goals), Middlesbrough 2nd (18 pts, 17-12).

Over their last five matches, Stoke City averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Middlesbrough averaged 2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Stoke City or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.68	3.62	1.94

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.83	1.26	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
2.69	1.43

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.64	2.14

1st half

1	X	2
4.02	2.25	2.50

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.29	13.5	1.69

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	11.0
1.5	1.23	3.89
2.5	1.77	2.03
3.5	2.85	1.39
4.5	5.35	1.13
5.5	10.1	1.03
6.5	18.8	1.01
7.5	41.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	8.00
1.25	1.10	5.20
1.75	1.26	3.28
2	1.35	2.97
2.25	1.54	2.37
2.75	1.94	1.80
3	2.27	1.59
3.25	2.51	1.46
3.75	3.25	1.26
4	4.27	1.16
4.25	4.75	1.12
4.75	6.45	1.05
5	9.10	–

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
0	2.74	1.42
+0.25	2.15	1.66
+0.5	1.89	1.94
+0.75	1.64	2.16
+1	1.43	2.69
+1.25	1.34	3.00

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	13.0	1.01
-1.75	8.80	1.01
-1.5	7.73	1.04
-1.25	7.07	1.06
-1	6.63	1.07
-0.75	4.54	1.15
-0.5	3.68	1.26
-0.25	3.15	1.33
+1.5	1.28	3.36
+1.75	1.17	4.24
+2	1.09	5.97
+2.25	1.07	6.46
+2.5	1.07	6.75
+3.5	1.02	12.0

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.49	2.53
4	1.67	2.14
4.5	1.94	1.79
5	2.60	1.47
5.5	2.92	1.37

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.02	10.4
6.5	1.05	7.21
7.5	1.14	4.64
8.5	1.30	3.15
9.5	1.57	2.28
10.5	1.91	1.80
11.5	2.45	1.49
12.5	3.25	1.28
13.5	4.59	1.14
14.5	6.65	1.07
15.5	8.45	1.05
16.5	10.0	1.03

24 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.02	6.86
7	1.01	7.09
7.25	1.07	5.44
7.75	1.13	4.30
8	1.15	4.09
8.25	1.23	3.43
8.75	1.34	2.86
9	1.43	2.66
9.25	1.47	2.43
9.75	1.64	2.12
10	1.79	1.99
10.25	1.82	1.88
10.75	2.04	1.69
11	2.25	1.60
11.25	2.31	1.52
11.75	2.65	1.39
12	2.96	1.31
12.25	3.11	1.28
12.75	3.68	1.19
13	4.30	1.13
13.25	4.47	1.12
13.75	5.43	1.07
14	6.64	1.03
14.25	6.85	1.02