Derby vs Wrexham• Championship, England

#220.8:1.414:00Tomorrow · Pride Park Stadium, Derby1.2:1.6#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.96PINX3.40BFR22.50DAFMargin at best3.2%Books10Markets90Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 17:45 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.96	3.40	2.46	3.8%
Dafabet	2.90	3.40	2.50	3.9%
Betano	2.90	3.35	2.47	4.8%
Betfair	2.88	3.40	2.40	5.8%
BetVictor	2.88	3.30	2.45	5.8%
Bet365	2.88	3.20	2.45	6.8%
1xBet	2.77	3.28	2.45	7.4%
Marathonbet	2.77	3.28	2.45	7.4%
William Hill	2.80	3.10	2.45	8.8%
SBO	2.67	3.00	2.26	15.0%
Best of all books	2.96	3.40	2.50	3.2%
Average	2.84	3.27	2.43	6.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

DerbyWrexham

Last 10#22Table position#140.63Points per game1.254Form pts · last 580.8Goals for · last 51.21.4Goals against · last 51.640Attack rating6053Defence rating4733Form rating6720H2H rating8034Goals model6637Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:51 UTC

Derby

1W 3D 6L · goals 9:17 · per match 0.9 for, 1.7 against

19 Sep	A	Burnley	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Birmingham	1-2	L
9 Sep	H	West Brom	0-1	L
5 Sep	A	West Ham	0-3	L
1 Sep	A	Portsmouth	2-0	W
29 Aug	H	Swansea	0-3	L
22 Aug	H	Cardiff	2-2	D
15 Aug	A	Charlton	1-2	L
8 Aug	H	Lincoln	1-2	L
4 Aug	A	Rotherham	1-1	D

Wrexham

2W 4D 4L · goals 9:14 · per match 0.9 for, 1.4 against

19 Sep	H	Southampton	2-1	W
11 Sep	A	West Ham	0-6	L
8 Sep	H	Burnley	1-1	D
5 Sep	A	Swansea	0-0	D
2 Sep	A	Millwall	3-0	W
28 Aug	H	Birmingham	1-2	L
22 Aug	H	Watford	1-1	D
17 Aug	A	Cardiff	1-1	D
7 Aug	A	Middlesbrough	0-1	L
2 Aug	H	Sunderland	0-1	L

Head to head

0Derby wins

1draws

1Wrexham wins

2 meetings · goals 2:3 · last 2: 0W 1D 1L for Derby

4 Jan 2026Championship	Championship	Derby1-2Wrexham
27 Sep 2025Championship	Championship	Wrexham1-1Derby

Championship tableChampionshipupdated 9 Oct 21:01 UTC

In the Championship table, Derby sit 22nd with 5 points from 8 games, while Wrexham are 14th with 10 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	8	5	2	1	13:6	+7	17
2	West Ham	8	4	3	1	22:11	+11	15
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16:12	+4	15
4	Wolves	7	4	2	1	15:10	+5	14
5	West Brom	8	4	2	2	10:8	+2	14
6	QPR	8	3	4	1	10:7	+3	13
7	Stoke City	8	4	1	3	13:12	+1	13
8	Bristol City	8	4	1	3	11:12	-1	13
9	Charlton	8	3	3	2	7:10	-3	12
10	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	12:11	+1	11
11	Millwall	8	3	2	3	15:15	0	11
12	Lincoln	8	3	2	3	7:8	-1	11
13	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19:10	+9	10
14	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	9:12	-3	10
15	Bolton	8	3	1	4	11:15	-4	10
16	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	12:12	0	9
17	Norwich	8	3	0	5	16:17	-1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	2	3	3	9:11	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8
20	Watford	8	2	2	4	7:10	-3	8
21	Cardiff	8	1	4	3	10:12	-2	7
22	Derby	8	1	2	5	7:14	-7	5
23	Preston	8	1	1	6	8:15	-7	4
24	Burnley	8	0	4	4	9:17	-8	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg133%2.84X29%3.27238%2.43

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.65 → 2.84 +7.2%X3.26 → 3.27 +0.3%22.53 → 2.43 -4.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.01	1.86	3.5%
Betano	2.02	1.83	4.1%
SBO	2.02	1.80	5.1%
Bet365	2.00	1.80	5.6%
Betfair	2.00	1.80	5.6%
1xBet	1.98	1.77	7.0%
Marathonbet	1.98	1.77	7.0%
BetVictor	1.92	1.76	8.9%
Best of all books	2.02	1.86	3.3%
Average	1.99	1.80	5.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.75	2.05	5.9%
Betano	1.75	2.00	7.1%
Bet365	1.73	2.00	7.8%
BetVictor	1.73	2.00	7.8%
1xBet	1.75	1.97	7.9%
William Hill	1.80	1.91	7.9%
Marathonbet	1.75	1.94	8.7%
Best of all books	1.80	2.05	4.3%
Average	1.75	1.98	7.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Derby 10%Draw 45%Wrexham 45%

The statistical model rates Derby at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Wrexham at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.84 | 3.27 | 2.43, which imply roughly 30.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Derby are 22nd (5 pts, 7-14 goals), Wrexham 14th (10 pts, 9-12).

Over their last five matches, Derby averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Wrexham averaged 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Wrexham.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.84	3.27	2.43

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.51	1.39	1.31

Draw no bet

1	2
2.01	1.74

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.75	1.98

1st half

1	X	2
3.40	2.10	3.05

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.06	8.55	1.96

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	8.95
1.5	1.31	3.24
2.5	1.99	1.80
3.5	3.39	1.29
4.5	6.75	1.09
5.5	13.3	1.02
6.5	24.8	1.01

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.03	7.60
1	1.04	7.00
1.25	1.18	4.00
1.75	1.39	2.76
2	1.49	2.48
2.25	1.75	2.03
2.75	2.27	1.60
3	2.73	1.41
3.25	3.01	1.33
3.75	4.00	1.18
4	5.60	1.08
4.25	5.95	1.07
5	9.50	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.84	1.42
-0.25	2.39	1.54
0	2.04	1.74
+0.25	1.72	2.08
+0.5	1.57	2.39
+0.75	1.38	2.89

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	12.0	1.02
-2	10.0	1.01
-1.75	7.20	1.03
-1.5	5.81	1.10
-1.25	5.35	1.11
-1	4.94	1.14
-0.75	3.42	1.28
+1	1.21	3.91
+1.25	1.17	4.38
+1.5	1.14	4.76
+1.75	1.08	6.11
+2.5	1.02	9.90

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.30	3.30
3	1.37	2.88
3.5	1.67	2.12
4	2.04	1.76
4.5	2.38	1.54
5	3.30	1.29

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.02	13.5
6.5	1.05	8.65
7.5	1.11	5.37
8.5	1.26	3.42
9.5	1.49	2.46
10.5	1.82	1.91
11.5	2.28	1.57
12.5	3.05	1.32
13.5	4.23	1.17
14.5	6.02	1.08
15.5	7.40	1.05
16.5	9.50	1.04
17.5	10.5	1.03

26 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.01	7.31
7.25	1.06	5.59
7.75	1.13	4.40
8	1.14	4.20
8.25	1.22	3.51
8.75	1.32	2.92
9	1.36	2.76
9.25	1.46	2.47
9.75	1.62	2.15
10	1.69	2.09
10.25	1.80	1.90
10.75	2.01	1.71
11	2.02	1.77
11.25	2.28	1.54
11.75	2.60	1.41
12	2.90	1.32
12.25	3.04	1.29
12.75	3.59	1.20
13	4.18	1.14
13.25	4.35	1.13
13.75	5.27	1.08
14	6.42	1.03
14.25	6.63	1.03
14.75	5.70	1.06
15	6.96	1.02
15.25	6.99	1.02