Burnley24th3 pts
Derby22nd4 pts
Burnley24th3 pts
Derby22nd4 ptsIn the Championship table, Burnley sit 24th with 3 points from 7 games, while Derby are 22nd with 4 points from 7 — the full standings are below.
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rates Burnley at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Derby at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.82 | 3.63 | 4.11, which imply roughly 54.9% for a Burnley win versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Championship table: Burnley are 24th (3 pts, 8-16 goals), Derby 22nd (4 pts, 6-13).
Over their last five matches, Burnley averaged 1 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Derby averaged 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Statistical advice: Double chance : Burnley or draw.
Burnley vs Derby — model comparison
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Form & Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 |  QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 |  Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 |  Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Lincoln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 20 |  Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 22 |  Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 23 |  Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Betting Odds
Full time
1
1.82
X
3.63
2
4.11