Birmingham vs 
Middlesbrough• Championship, England
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2
Average 1X2: 2.71 | 3.51 | 2.44. No per-bookmaker prices for this match.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:51 UTC
Birmingham
3W 5D 2L · goals 14:17 · per match 1.4 for, 1.7 against
| 19 Sep | H | Middlesbrough | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Derby | 2-1 | W |
| 9 Sep | A | Norwich | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep | H | Wolves | 2-2 | D |
| 1 Sep | H | Southampton | 1-1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | Wrexham | 2-1 | W |
| 25 Aug | H | Brentford | 1-6 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Bristol City | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | Sheffield Utd | 0-0 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | Swansea | 1-0 | W |
Middlesbrough
5W 3D 2L · goals 19:16 · per match 1.9 for, 1.6 against
| 19 Sep | A | Birmingham | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Sep | H | Millwall | 2-2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Norwich | 4-3 | W |
| 8 Sep | A | Crystal Palace | 0-3 | L |
| 5 Sep | A | QPR | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Sep | A | Burnley | 1-1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | West Brom | 3-1 | W |
| 25 Aug | A | Doncaster | 3-1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Blackburn | 1-2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | Lincoln | 2-1 | W |
Head to head
26 meetings · goals 25:40 · last 10: 2W 0D 8L for Birmingham
| 2 Mar 2026Championship | Championship | Birmingham1-3Middlesbrough |
| 8 Nov 2025Championship | Championship | Middlesbrough2-1Birmingham |
| 12 Mar 2024Championship | Championship | Birmingham0-1Middlesbrough |
| 21 Oct 2023Championship | Championship | Middlesbrough1-0Birmingham |
| 2 Jan 2023Championship | Championship | Birmingham1-3Middlesbrough |
| 5 Oct 2022Championship | Championship | Middlesbrough1-0Birmingham |
| 15 Mar 2022Championship | Championship | Birmingham0-2Middlesbrough |
| 30 Oct 2021Championship | Championship | Middlesbrough0-2Birmingham |
| 16 Jan 2021Championship | Championship | Middlesbrough0-1Birmingham |
| 19 Dec 2020Championship | Championship | Birmingham1-4Middlesbrough |
Championship tableChampionshipupdated 9 Oct 23:10 UTC
In the Championship table, Birmingham sit 10th with 11 points from 8 games, while Middlesbrough are 3rd with 15 points from 8.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16:12 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:10 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:12 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:10 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:11 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15:15 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | +9 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8:15 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | -8 | 4 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.4% margin.
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Birmingham at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Middlesbrough at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.71 | 3.51 | 2.44, which imply roughly 28.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Championship table: Birmingham are 10th (11 pts, 12-11 goals), Middlesbrough 3rd (15 pts, 16-12).
Over their last five matches, Birmingham averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Middlesbrough averaged 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Middlesbrough.
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Starting Lineups
Birmingham
4-2-3-1Coach: C. Davies
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Beadle
Defence
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 5P. Neumann
- 4C. Klarer
- 20A. Cochrane
Midfield
- 24T. Iwata
- 14J. Solis
Attack
- 7Carlos Vicente
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
- 32L. Vázquez
Substitutes (9)
- 21R. Allsop
- 3L. Buchanan
- 33M. Ducksch
- 23D. Fry
- 2E. Laird
- 25K. Lund
- 40M. Mazwi
- 8Paik Seung-Ho
- 16P. Roberts
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1Coach: K. Hellberg
Goalkeeper
- 1R. Vítek
Defence
- 12L. Ayling
- 4A. Phillips
- 29A. Malanda
- 2C. Brittain
Midfield
- 10A. Morris
- 8R. McGree
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 14M. Peart-Harris
Attack
- 17M. Arfsten
- 7W. Lankshear
Substitutes (9)
- 22K. Joseph
- 30Neto Borges
- 21R. Pukštas
- 16J. Sarmiento
- 13D. Strelec
- 9T. Conway
- 3S. Byram
- 31S. Brynn
- 6S. Berhalter