Mornar vs Jezero• First League, Montenegro

#60.8:0.83-3FTToday · Stadion Topolica, Bar1.6:2.4#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.52PINX3.95DAF26.711XBMargin at best6.0%Books9Markets49Rating72 · 28Exp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Oct 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.50	3.95	6.40	7.6%
BetVictor	1.50	3.75	6.50	8.7%
Betano	1.52	3.75	6.10	8.8%
Pinnacle	1.52	3.70	6.04	9.4%
1xBet	1.47	3.58	6.71	10.9%
Bet365	1.50	3.60	6.00	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.46	3.58	6.35	12.2%
Betfair	1.44	3.80	6.00	12.4%
William Hill	1.50	3.50	5.80	12.5%
Best of all books	1.52	3.95	6.71	6.0%
Average	1.49	3.69	6.21	10.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MornarJezero

Last 10#6Table position#81.44Points per game1.007Form pts · last 540.8Goals for · last 51.60.8Goals against · last 52.433Attack rating6775Defence rating2556Form rating4493H2H rating789Goals model1172Overall rating28

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 8 Oct 15:41 UTC

Mornar

4W 4D 2L · goals 14:8 · per match 1.4 for, 0.8 against

2 Oct	A	Mladost DG	5-1	W
20 Sep	A	Dečić	1-1	D
14 Sep	H	Otrant-Olympic	0-1	L
8 Sep	A	Sutjeska	0-1	L
3 Sep	H	Bokelj	2-0	W
29 Aug	A	Petrovac	1-1	D
21 Aug	H	Buducnost Podgorica	2-1	W
16 Aug	A	Mladost DG	3-2	W
7 Aug	H	Arsenal Tivat	0-0	D
2 Aug	A	Jezero	0-0	D

Jezero

3W 3D 4L · goals 14:16 · per match 1.4 for, 1.6 against

20 Sep	A	Otrant-Olympic	1-4	L
15 Sep	H	Bokelj	1-1	D
10 Sep	A	Buducnost Podgorica	0-3	L
5 Sep	H	Arsenal Tivat	5-2	W
30 Aug	A	Dečić	1-2	L
22 Aug	H	Sutjeska	0-0	D
16 Aug	A	Petrovac	0-3	L
9 Aug	H	Mladost DG	1-0	W
2 Aug	H	Mornar	0-0	D
3 Jun	A	Iskra	5-1	W

Head to head

13Mornar wins

7draws

6Jezero wins

26 meetings · goals 31:23 · last 10: 6W 2D 2L for Mornar

2 Aug 2026First League	First League	Jezero0-0Mornar
24 May 2026First League	First League	Jezero0-2Mornar
6 May 2026Cup	Cup	Jezero1-2Mornar
22 Apr 2026Cup	Cup	Mornar1-0Jezero
4 Apr 2026First League	First League	Mornar2-0Jezero
6 Dec 2025First League	First League	Jezero2-1Mornar
27 Sep 2025First League	First League	Mornar2-2Jezero
12 Apr 2025First League	First League	Mornar0-1Jezero
22 Feb 2025First League	First League	Jezero1-2Mornar
6 Oct 2024First League	First League	Mornar2-0Jezero

First League tablePrva Ligaupdated 8 Oct 18:11 UTC

In the First League table, Mornar sit 6th with 13 points from 9 games, while Jezero are 8th with 9 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Otrant-Olympic	10	5	2	3	17:12	+5	17
2	Dečić	9	4	3	2	10:7	+3	15
3	Bokelj	9	4	3	2	8:5	+3	15
4	Buducnost Podgorica	9	4	2	3	11:7	+4	14
5	Sutjeska	9	4	2	3	11:7	+4	14
6	Mornar	9	3	4	2	9:7	+2	13
7	Mladost DG	10	3	2	5	10:17	-7	11
8	Jezero	9	2	3	4	9:15	-6	9
9	Petrovac	9	1	5	3	7:9	-2	8
10	Arsenal Tivat	9	1	4	4	5:11	-6	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg161%1.49X25%3.69215%6.21

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.47 → 1.49 +1.4%X3.70 → 3.69 -0.3%26.41 → 6.21 -3.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.10	1.70	6.4%
Pinnacle	2.07	1.72	6.4%
Betano	2.05	1.70	7.6%
Betfair	2.10	1.65	8.2%
BetVictor	2.01	1.69	8.9%
1xBet	1.96	1.72	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.96	1.72	9.2%
Best of all books	2.10	1.72	5.8%
Average	2.04	1.70	7.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.20	1.60	8.0%
BetVictor	2.15	1.62	8.2%
Betano	2.15	1.60	9.0%
1xBet	2.06	1.65	9.1%
William Hill	2.10	1.62	9.3%
Marathonbet	2.06	1.63	9.9%
Best of all books	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Average	2.12	1.62	8.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mornar 45%Draw 45%Jezero 10%

The statistical model rated Mornar at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Jezero at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.49 | 3.69 | 6.21, which imply roughly 67.1% for a Mornar win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the First League table: Mornar are 6th (13 pts, 9-7 goals), Jezero 8th (9 pts, 9-15).

Over their last five matches, Mornar averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Jezero averaged 1.6 scored and 2.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Mornar or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.49	3.69	6.21

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.09	2.37	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.17	4.50

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.12	1.62

1st half

1	X	2
2.05	2.11	6.53

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.42	7.75	3.46

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	8.77
1.5	1.32	3.02
2.5	2.04	1.70
3.5	3.54	1.23
4.5	7.57	1.05
5.5	16.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	6.75
1.25	1.17	4.05
1.75	1.40	2.65
2	1.52	2.31
2.25	1.77	1.92
2.75	2.27	1.53
3	2.77	1.36
3.25	3.06	1.30
3.75	3.99	1.17
4	5.80	1.07

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.92	1.33
-1.5	2.46	1.46
-1.25	2.16	1.59
-1	1.86	1.85
-0.75	1.62	2.12
-0.5	1.49	2.45

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	9.30	1.01
-3	8.70	1.01
-2.5	4.60	1.13
-2.25	4.12	1.16
-2	3.84	1.18
-0.25	1.31	3.05
0	1.12	4.80
+0.25	1.09	5.40

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8	1.82	1.98
8.5	2.01	1.74