Mura vs Celje• 1. SNL, Slovenia

#90.8:2.20-0FT20/09 · Mestni stadion Fazanerija, Murska Sobota1.4:1.6#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.951XBX4.04PIN21.70BTNMargin at best3.8%Books9Markets79Rating33 · 67Exp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Sep 21:53 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	4.19	3.66	1.79	7.1%
Betano	3.90	3.55	1.83	8.5%
Betfair	4.00	3.70	1.75	9.2%
BetVictor	4.20	3.60	1.73	9.4%
Bet365	3.80	3.80	1.75	9.8%
1xBet	4.24	3.50	1.71	10.6%
William Hill	4.00	3.40	1.75	11.6%
Marathonbet	4.15	3.50	1.69	11.8%
SBO	3.54	3.12	1.77	16.8%
Best of all books	4.24	3.80	1.83	4.5%
Average	4.00	3.54	1.75	10.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MuraCelje

Last 10#9Table position#60.91Points per game1.503Form pts · last 540.8Goals for · last 51.42.2Goals against · last 51.636Attack rating6442Defence rating5840Form rating6029H2H rating7125Goals model7533Overall rating67

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 19:51 UTC

Mura

2W 3D 5L · goals 11:22 · per match 1.1 for, 2.2 against

10 Oct	A	Olimpija Ljubljana	3-3	D
20 Sep	H	Celje	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	Aluminij	1-6	L
6 Sep	A	Maribor	1-1	D
29 Aug	A	Bravo	0-2	L
22 Aug	H	Koper	0-1	L
16 Aug	A	Brinje-Grosuplje	2-1	W
10 Aug	H	Radomlje	1-3	L
1 Aug	A	Nafta	2-5	L
25 Jul	H	Olimpija Ljubljana	1-0	W

Celje

2W 2D 6L · goals 7:15 · per match 0.7 for, 1.5 against

15 Oct	H	Omonia Nicosia	0-3	L
10 Oct	H	Aluminij	1-0	W
20 Sep	A	Mura	0-0	D
16 Sep	A	Bayer Leverkusen	0-2	L
12 Sep	A	Bravo	1-2	L
6 Sep	H	Koper	0-1	L
2 Sep	A	Aluminij	2-0	W
30 Aug	A	Brinje-Grosuplje	1-4	L
26 Aug	H	Slovan Bratislava	1-2	L
19 Aug	A	Slovan Bratislava	1-1	D

Head to head

11Mura wins

7draws

16Celje wins

34 meetings · goals 41:55 · last 10: 2W 2D 6L for Mura

17 Jul 20261. SNL	1. SNL	Celje2-2Mura
19 Apr 20261. SNL	1. SNL	Mura0-2Celje
14 Feb 20261. SNL	1. SNL	Celje5-1Mura
26 Oct 20251. SNL	1. SNL	Mura2-1Celje
10 Aug 20251. SNL	1. SNL	Celje3-0Mura
13 Apr 20251. SNL	1. SNL	Celje2-1Mura
16 Feb 20251. SNL	1. SNL	Mura0-0Celje
19 Oct 20241. SNL	1. SNL	Celje4-3Mura
3 Aug 20241. SNL	1. SNL	Mura1-0Celje
6 Apr 20241. SNL	1. SNL	Mura1-3Celje

1. SNL table1. SNLupdated 16 Oct 19:40 UTC

In the 1. SNL table, Mura sit 9th with 10 points from 11 games, while Celje are 6th with 15 points from 10.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Maribor	11	6	5	0	21:9	+12	23
2	Koper	11	5	4	2	14:11	+3	19
3	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	5	3	4	14:11	+3	18
4	Bravo	11	5	3	3	12:11	+1	18
5	Nafta	11	5	1	5	18:16	+2	16
6	Celje	10	4	3	3	12:11	+1	15
7	Aluminij	12	3	4	5	16:13	+3	13
8	Brinje-Grosuplje	11	3	2	6	15:20	-5	11
9	Mura	11	2	4	5	13:24	-11	10
10	Radomlje	10	1	3	6	12:21	-9	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg120%4.64X25%3.71256%1.63

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.44 → 4.64 +4.5%X3.64 → 3.71 +1.9%21.67 → 1.63 -2.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.80	2.00	5.6%
Betfair	1.80	2.00	5.6%
Pinnacle	1.84	1.95	5.6%
SBO	1.83	1.93	6.5%
Betano	1.80	1.95	6.8%
BetVictor	1.78	1.89	9.1%
1xBet	1.77	1.90	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.77	1.90	9.1%
Best of all books	1.84	2.00	4.3%
Average	1.80	1.94	7.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.67	2.10	7.5%
Bet365	1.73	2.00	7.8%
William Hill	1.73	2.00	7.8%
Betano	1.70	2.02	8.3%
1xBet	1.71	2.00	8.5%
BetVictor	1.70	2.00	8.8%
Marathonbet	1.71	1.97	9.2%
Best of all books	1.73	2.10	5.4%
Average	1.71	2.01	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mura 10%Draw 45%Celje 45%

The statistical model rated Mura at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Celje at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.64 | 3.71 | 1.63, which imply roughly 27% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. SNL table: Mura are 9th (10 pts, 13-24 goals), Celje 6th (15 pts, 12-11).

Over their last five matches, Mura averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Celje averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Celje.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.00	3.54	1.75

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.93	1.18	1.22

Draw no bet

1	2
3.01	1.34

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.71	2.01

1st half

1	X	2
4.44	2.22	2.31

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.51	12.6	1.58

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	9.84
1.5	1.24	3.70
2.5	1.80	1.94
3.5	2.96	1.34
4.5	5.59	1.11
5.5	9.62	1.04
6.5	12.2	1.01
7.5	21.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	–	9.30
1.25	1.10	5.00
1.75	1.26	3.21
2	1.37	2.79
2.25	1.58	2.21
2.75	1.99	1.72
3	2.34	1.52
3.25	2.59	1.43
3.75	3.59	1.21
4	4.90	1.11
4.25	5.26	1.10
4.75	7.30	1.03
5	8.75	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.32	1.54
+0.5	1.99	1.77
+0.75	1.75	1.97
+1	1.52	2.38
+1.25	1.40	2.71
+1.5	1.33	3.01

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	8.75	1.03
-1	9.00	1.01
-0.75	5.30	1.11
-0.5	3.98	1.23
-0.25	3.57	1.25
0	3.06	1.32
+1.75	1.22	3.76
+2	1.11	5.28
+2.25	1.09	5.75
+2.5	1.08	6.13
+2.75	1.05	7.67

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.06	5.50
7.5	1.24	3.32
8.5	1.52	2.33
9.5	1.88	1.83
10.5	2.39	1.49
11.5	3.16	1.27
12.5	4.33	1.13
13.5	6.59	1.03

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.08	5.25
7	1.09	5.00
7.25	1.16	4.03
7.75	1.25	3.26
8	1.36	2.87
8.25	1.38	2.70
8.75	1.53	2.31
9	1.66	2.11
9.25	1.71	2.02
9.75	1.91	1.79
10	2.13	1.66
10.25	2.16	1.61
10.75	2.47	1.45
11	2.74	1.36
11.25	2.89	1.33
11.75	3.42	1.23
12	3.97	1.16
12.25	4.15	1.15
12.75	5.04	1.09
13	6.17	1.04
13.25	6.38	1.03