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Newcastle vs Aston Villa• Premier League, England

#111.6:2.20-1FTToday · St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne1.2:1.4#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.30BFRX3.861XB23.181XBMargin at best0.8%Books6Markets79Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L53.2

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet2.343.843.051.6%
Pinnacle2.323.763.022.8%
Marathonbet2.283.742.974.3%
Bet3652.253.603.005.6%
BetVictor2.253.702.807.2%
William Hill2.253.502.907.5%
Best of all books2.343.843.051.6%
Average2.283.692.964.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

NewcastleAston Villa
Last 10#11Table position#121.14Points per game1.147Form pts · last 5131.6Goals for · last 51.22.2Goals against · last 51.457Attack rating4339Defence rating6158Form rating4250H2H rating5066Goals model3453Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 02:01 UTC

Newcastle

4W 3D 3L · goals 16:18 · per match 1.6 for, 1.8 against

12 OctACoventry1-4L
19 SepHHull City2-1W
14 SepALeeds1-4L
8 SepAMillwall1-0W
5 SepHBournemouth2-2D
29 AugATottenham2-0W
26 AugHWest Brom3-2W
23 AugHLiverpool2-2D
16 AugHStrasbourg1-1D
15 AugHBayer Leverkusen1-2L

Aston Villa

5W 2D 3L · goals 21:15 · per match 2.1 for, 1.5 against

14 OctHFenerbahçe6-0W
10 OctHBrentford2-2D
2 OctASevilla3-1W
19 SepATottenham3-2W
16 SepACoventry3-1W
12 SepHNottingham Forest1-2L
8 SepAClub Brugge KV3-2W
5 SepAHull City0-0D
31 AugHArsenal0-1L
23 AugABrighton0-4L

Head to head

13Newcastle wins
10draws
7Aston Villa wins

30 meetings · goals 45:31 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for Newcastle

14 Feb 2026FA CupFA CupAston Villa1-3Newcastle
25 Jan 2026Premier LeaguePremier LeagueNewcastle0-2Aston Villa
16 Aug 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeagueAston Villa0-0Newcastle
19 Apr 2025Premier LeaguePremier LeagueAston Villa4-1Newcastle
26 Dec 2024Premier LeaguePremier LeagueNewcastle3-0Aston Villa
30 Jan 2024Premier LeaguePremier LeagueAston Villa1-3Newcastle
12 Aug 2023Premier LeaguePremier LeagueNewcastle5-1Aston Villa
23 Jul 2023Premier League - Summer SeriesPremier League - Summer SeriesNewcastle3-3Aston Villa
15 Apr 2023Premier LeaguePremier LeagueAston Villa3-0Newcastle
29 Oct 2022Premier LeaguePremier LeagueNewcastle4-0Aston Villa

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 17 Oct 20:10 UTC

In the Premier League table, Newcastle sit 11th with 8 points from 7 games, while Aston Villa are 12th with 8 points from 7.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Manchester City770019:7+1221
2Arsenal650110:5+515
3Brighton641118:5+1313
4Chelsea741217:13+413
5Liverpool73319:8+112
6Brentford724113:8+510
7Everton72418:7+110
8Leeds62318:5+39
9Hull City72328:7+19
10Ipswich730411:15-49
11Newcastle722310:14-48
12Aston Villa72237:11-48
13Crystal Palace62139:12-37
14Manchester United61329:906
15Coventry62045:11-66
16Fulham71247:10-35
17Nottingham Forest61235:8-35
18Sunderland61146:12-64
19Bournemouth60337:13-63
20Tottenham60333:9-63

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg140%2.37X26%3.66234%2.83

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14 Oct 00:0115 Oct 02:401 2.23X 3.662 2.99
12.11 → 2.23 +5.7%X3.70 → 3.66 -1.1%23.16 → 2.99 -5.4%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.642.461.6%
Pinnacle1.582.513.1%
Marathonbet1.592.394.7%
Bet3651.572.385.7%
BetVictor1.542.279.0%
Best of all books1.642.510.8%
Average1.582.404.8%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.502.506.7%
William Hill1.502.506.7%
1xBet1.472.537.6%
Marathonbet1.472.498.2%
BetVictor1.442.558.7%
Best of all books1.502.555.9%
Average1.482.517.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Newcastle 35%Draw 35%Aston Villa 30%

The statistical model rated Newcastle at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Aston Villa at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.83, which imply roughly 42.2% for a Newcastle win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Newcastle are 11th (8 pts, 10-14 goals), Aston Villa 12th (8 pts, 7-11).

Over their last five matches, Newcastle averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Aston Villa averaged 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Newcastle or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Newcastle

4-2-3-1

Coach: M. Jaissle

Goalkeeper

  • 21L. Horníček

Defence

  • 67L. Miley
  • 12M. Thiaw
  • 4S. Botman
  • 3L. Hall

Midfield

  • 6Nico González
  • 7Joelinton
  • 28J. Willock
  • 9Y. Wissa
  • 11H. Barnes

Attack

  • 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
Substitutes (9)
  • 14Sean Steur
  • 17B. Touré
  • 10W. Osula
  • 23J. Murphy
  • 1N. Pope
  • 5F. Schär
  • 33D. Burn
  • 37A. Dedić
  • 8A. Bamba

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Coach: Unai Emery

Goalkeeper

  • 1Z. Suzuki

Defence

  • 2M. Cash
  • 3V. Lindelöf
  • 5T. Mings
  • 29A. Wan-Bissaka

Midfield

  • 8B. Kamara
  • 35João Gomes
  • 47Alysson Edward
  • 10E. Buendía
  • 44J. Manzambi

Attack

  • 11N. Jackson
Substitutes (9)
  • 4T. Harwood-Bellis
  • 14Pau Torres
  • 7J. McGinn
  • 6R. Barkley
  • 26L. Bogarde
  • 27L. Goretzka
  • 19I. Mbaye
  • 40M. Bizot
  • 39Brian Madjo

Match Statistics

NewcastleAston Villa
1.14Expected Goals1.56
333Passes accurate347
11Shots insidebox11
5Shots outsidebox4
9Blocked Shots8
10Free Kicks14
1Shots on Goal3
2Goalkeeper Saves1
6Shots off Goal4
5Offsides0
401Total passes432
16Total Shots15
6Yellow Cards2
4Corner Kicks5
14Fouls11
0Red Cards0
49%Ball Possession51%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.283.692.96

Double chance

1XX212
1.391.631.28

Draw no bet

12
1.662.12

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.482.51

1st half

1X2
2.752.393.35

2nd half

1X2
2.512.693.03

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 13.5713.526.7
HT X6.036.177.30
HT 223.714.24.72

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.8116.92.08

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0215.8
1.51.154.89
2.51.582.40
3.52.341.56
4.54.141.19
5.57.951.05
6.515.01.03
7.529.01.01
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0212.5
1.251.086.28
1.751.194.26
21.233.98
2.251.422.89
2.751.712.16
31.871.89
3.252.101.68
3.752.681.41
43.341.29
4.253.501.22
4.754.751.12
56.301.06

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.752.591.47
-0.52.241.63
-0.251.971.86
01.692.19
+0.251.512.49
+0.51.402.86
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.57.401.03
-26.751.04
-1.754.991.14
-1.53.971.21
-1.253.691.26
-13.311.31
+0.751.283.51
+11.164.73
+1.251.135.19
+1.51.115.52
+1.751.056.80

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
31.293.16
3.51.602.23
41.682.08
4.52.081.69
52.611.44
5.53.031.32

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.075.49
7.51.173.76
8.51.352.74
9.51.662.10
10.52.061.70
11.52.591.40
12.53.351.22
13.54.571.11
14.56.151.05
16 more lines
LineOverUnder
71.094.60
81.213.27
8.751.382.62
91.482.46
9.251.542.25
9.751.752.01
101.861.94
10.251.931.74
10.752.161.53
112.381.51
11.252.501.41
11.752.821.27
122.901.26
12.253.401.19
133.851.14
144.971.07