Jonava vs BFA• 1 Lyga, Lithuania

#100.8:1.63-0FTToday1.8:1.6#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.40WHX3.70B36522.50WHMargin at best8.7%Books5Markets38Rating31 · 69Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 12:50 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	2.30	3.70	2.45	11.3%
1xBet	2.40	3.30	2.48	12.3%
Marathonbet	2.40	3.30	2.48	12.3%
Pinnacle	2.39	3.33	2.47	12.4%
William Hill	2.45	3.10	2.50	13.1%
Best of all books	2.45	3.70	2.50	7.8%
Average	2.39	3.35	2.48	12.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

JonavaBFA

Last 10#10Table position#81.11Points per game1.594Form pts · last 570.8Goals for · last 51.81.6Goals against · last 51.631Attack rating6950Defence rating5033Form rating677H2H rating9354Goals model4631Overall rating69

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 14:01 UTC

Jonava

3W 1D 6L · goals 9:13 · per match 0.9 for, 1.3 against

10 Oct	A	Babrungas	0-2	L
18 Sep	H	Tauras	2-3	L
11 Sep	A	Neptūną Klaipėda	0-2	L
4 Sep	H	Dainava	0-0	D
29 Aug	A	Transinvest 2	2-1	W
21 Aug	H	FA Šiauliai II	0-1	L
14 Aug	A	Kauno Žalgiris II	1-2	L
7 Aug	H	Ekranas	1-2	L
31 Jul	A	Be1 NFA	2-0	W
25 Jul	H	Garliava	1-0	W

BFA

4W 3D 3L · goals 15:13 · per match 1.5 for, 1.3 against

9 Oct	H	Žalgiris II	1-2	L
26 Sep	A	Panevėžys	0-2	L
19 Sep	A	Atmosfera	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Garliava	3-2	W
4 Sep	H	Babrungas	2-1	W
28 Aug	A	Tauras	2-2	D
22 Aug	H	Neptūną Klaipėda	2-0	W
15 Aug	A	Dainava	0-0	D
8 Aug	H	Transinvest 2	4-2	W
2 Aug	A	FA Šiauliai II	0-1	L

Head to head

4Jonava wins

1draws

5BFA wins

10 meetings · goals 14:11 · last 10: 4W 1D 5L for Jonava

30 May 20261 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA1-0Jonava
26 Jul 20251 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA0-0Jonava
15 Mar 20251 Lyga	1 Lyga	Jonava0-1BFA
7 Oct 20231 Lyga	1 Lyga	Jonava0-3BFA
21 May 20231 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA2-1Jonava
27 Aug 20211 Lyga	1 Lyga	Jonava6-0BFA
8 May 20211 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA0-2Jonava
21 Aug 20201 Lyga	1 Lyga	Jonava3-1BFA
4 Aug 20191 Lyga	1 Lyga	Jonava0-3BFA
7 Apr 20191 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA0-2Jonava

1 Lyga table1 Lygaupdated 16 Oct 20:41 UTC

In the 1 Lyga table, Jonava sit 10th with 30 points from 27 games, while BFA are 8th with 43 points from 27.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Minija	25	22	1	2	68:13	+55	67
2	Babrungas	26	20	4	2	45:11	+34	64
3	Be1 NFA	26	17	3	6	47:27	+20	54
4	Žalgiris II	26	14	4	8	40:33	+7	46
5	Tauras	26	13	5	8	47:35	+12	44
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	40:28	+12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	14	2	11	33:33	0	44
8	BFA	27	13	4	10	40:40	0	43
9	Atmosfera	25	8	7	10	37:33	+4	31
10	Jonava	27	8	6	13	31:35	-4	30
11	Garliava	26	7	5	14	29:31	-2	26
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	35:60	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	32:59	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	26:48	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	26	4	6	16	30:59	-29	18
16	Ekranas	27	4	3	20	27:62	-35	15

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg137%2.39X27%3.35236%2.48

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.65 → 2.38 -10.2%X3.35 → 3.33 -0.6%22.36 → 2.48 +5.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.85	1.95	5.3%
Pinnacle	1.81	1.90	7.9%
1xBet	1.80	1.87	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.80	1.87	9.0%
Best of all books	1.85	1.95	5.3%
Average	1.81	1.90	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.67	2.05	8.7%
1xBet	1.63	2.10	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.63	2.06	9.9%
Best of all books	1.67	2.10	7.5%
Average	1.64	2.07	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Jonava 10%Draw 45%BFA 45%

The statistical model rated Jonava at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and BFA at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.39 | 3.35 | 2.48, which imply roughly 29.9% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1 Lyga table: Jonava are 10th (30 pts, 31-35 goals), BFA 8th (43 pts, 40-40).

Over their last five matches, Jonava averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; BFA averaged 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or BFA.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.39	3.35	2.48

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.41	1.45	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
1.80	1.91

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.64	2.07

1st half

1	X	2
2.99	2.17	3.07

2nd half

1	X	2
2.75	2.40	2.89

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.88	15.3	25.5
HT X	6.10	5.50	6.45
HT 2	25.5	15.3	4.10

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.90	11.8	1.97

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	9.65
1.5	1.22	3.50
2.5	1.82	1.90
3.5	2.97	1.30
4.5	5.80	1.11
5.5	12.0	1.03

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	8.90
1.75	1.28	3.09
2	1.36	2.71
2.25	1.58	2.17
2.75	2.00	1.67
3	2.38	1.47
3.25	2.68	1.37
3.75	3.58	1.21
4	4.95	1.11

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.85	1.33
-0.5	2.35	1.49
-0.25	2.09	1.63
0	1.82	1.89
+0.25	1.58	2.15
+0.5	1.46	2.43

6 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	4.90	1.11
-1.25	4.45	1.14
-1	3.74	1.20
+0.75	1.31	2.95
+1	1.15	4.20
+1.5	1.10	5.10

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9.5	1.91	1.80