BFA vs Žalgiris II• 1 Lyga, Lithuania

#72.0:1.21-2FTToday1.4:0.8#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.83WHX3.80BFR23.80BFRMargin at best7.3%Books9Markets48Rating56 · 44Exp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.81	3.65	3.65	10.0%
Betfair	1.73	3.80	3.80	10.4%
Betano	1.78	3.70	3.65	10.6%
1xBet	1.80	3.58	3.65	10.9%
Bet365	1.73	3.75	3.75	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.78	3.58	3.56	12.2%
Pinnacle	1.80	3.50	3.52	12.5%
William Hill	1.83	3.30	3.60	12.7%
BetVictor	1.67	3.30	3.40	19.6%
Best of all books	1.83	3.80	3.80	7.3%
Average	1.77	3.57	3.62	12.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BFAŽalgiris II

Last 10#7Table position#41.65Points per game1.778Form pts · last 5122.0Goals for · last 51.41.2Goals against · last 50.859Attack rating4140Defence rating6048Form rating5271H2H rating2960Goals model4056Overall rating44

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 13:50 UTC

BFA

5W 3D 2L · goals 17:12 · per match 1.7 for, 1.2 against

26 Sep	A	Panevėžys	0-2	L
19 Sep	A	Atmosfera	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Garliava	3-2	W
4 Sep	H	Babrungas	2-1	W
28 Aug	A	Tauras	2-2	D
22 Aug	H	Neptūną Klaipėda	2-0	W
15 Aug	A	Dainava	0-0	D
8 Aug	H	Transinvest 2	4-2	W
2 Aug	A	FA Šiauliai II	0-1	L
26 Jul	H	Be1 NFA	3-1	W

Žalgiris II

8W 1D 1L · goals 17:7 · per match 1.7 for, 0.7 against

20 Sep	H	Babrungas	0-1	L
12 Sep	A	Tauras	1-0	W
7 Sep	H	Neptūną Klaipėda	1-0	W
28 Aug	A	Dainava	1-0	W
25 Aug	H	Transinvest 2	4-3	W
14 Aug	A	FA Šiauliai II	4-1	W
10 Aug	H	Kauno Žalgiris II	2-1	W
1 Aug	A	Ekranas	1-1	D
28 Jul	H	Minija	1-0	W
21 Jul	A	Hegelmann II	2-0	W

Head to head

6BFA wins

3draws

4Žalgiris II wins

13 meetings · goals 29:29 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for BFA

22 May 20261 Lyga	1 Lyga	Žalgiris II3-4BFA
12 Sep 20251 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA1-0Žalgiris II
11 May 20251 Lyga	1 Lyga	Žalgiris II4-1BFA
7 Aug 20231 Lyga	1 Lyga	Žalgiris II1-6BFA
18 Mar 20231 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA0-0Žalgiris II
12 Nov 20221 Lyga	1 Lyga	Žalgiris II1-1BFA
6 Jul 20221 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA4-2Žalgiris II
7 Aug 20211 Lyga	1 Lyga	Žalgiris II1-0BFA
10 Apr 20211 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA4-8Žalgiris II
26 Sep 20201 Lyga	1 Lyga	BFA2-1Žalgiris II

1 Lyga table1 Lygaupdated 9 Oct 20:40 UTC

In the 1 Lyga table, BFA sit 7th with 43 points from 26 games, while Žalgiris II are 4th with 46 points from 26.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Minija	25	22	1	2	68:13	+55	67
2	Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43:11	+32	61
3	Be1 NFA	25	16	3	6	45:27	+18	51
4	Žalgiris II	26	14	4	8	40:33	+7	46
5	Neptūną Klaipėda	25	14	2	9	33:30	+3	44
6	Tauras	25	13	4	8	43:31	+12	43
7	BFA	26	13	4	9	40:37	+3	43
8	Dainava	26	11	8	7	37:27	+10	41
9	Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37:33	+4	30
10	Jonava	25	7	6	12	28:33	-5	27
11	Garliava	25	7	4	14	29:31	-2	25
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	26	7	2	17	26:46	-20	23
13	Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30:56	-26	22
14	Transinvest 2	25	6	3	16	29:58	-29	21
15	FA Šiauliai II	26	4	6	16	30:59	-29	18
16	Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25:58	-33	14

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg150%1.77X25%3.58225%3.63

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.79 → 1.77 -1.1%X3.85 → 3.57 -7.3%23.68 → 3.62 -1.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Betfair	1.57	2.25	8.1%
1xBet	1.58	2.18	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.58	2.18	9.2%
Pinnacle	1.58	2.17	9.4%
Betano	1.60	2.12	9.7%
BetVictor	1.45	1.95	20.2%
Best of all books	1.65	2.25	5.1%
Average	1.57	2.15	10.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.57	2.30	7.2%
William Hill	1.55	2.25	9.0%
1xBet	1.53	2.28	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.53	2.24	10.0%
BetVictor	1.44	2.00	19.4%
Best of all books	1.57	2.30	7.2%
Average	1.52	2.21	10.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

BFA 45%Draw 45%Žalgiris II 10%

The statistical model rated BFA at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Žalgiris II at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.77 | 3.58 | 3.63, which imply roughly 56.5% for a BFA win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1 Lyga table: BFA are 7th (43 pts, 40-37 goals), Žalgiris II 4th (46 pts, 40-33).

Over their last five matches, BFA averaged 2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Žalgiris II averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : BFA or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.77	3.57	3.62

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.19	1.86	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
1.34	2.69

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.52	2.21

1st half

1	X	2
2.25	2.30	4.00

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.58	14.1	2.37

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	14.0
1.5	1.16	4.47
2.5	1.57	2.15
3.5	2.45	1.47
4.5	4.30	1.17
5.5	8.50	1.06

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.19	3.82
2	1.24	3.34
2.25	1.41	2.58
2.75	1.69	1.90
3	1.90	1.70
3.25	2.17	1.57
3.75	2.83	1.34
4	3.50	1.22

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.70	1.37
-1	2.40	1.48
-0.75	1.95	1.68
-0.5	1.71	1.85
-0.25	1.58	2.16
0	1.37	2.68

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	5.80	1.07
-2	5.10	1.10
-1.75	3.74	1.19
-1.5	3.04	1.29
+0.25	1.28	3.06
+1	1.05	6.40
+1.5	1.03	7.20

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.46	2.45
9.5	1.47	2.41
10.5	1.85	1.84
11.5	2.43	1.47
12.5	2.41	1.47

4 more lines

Line	Over	Under
9	1.60	2.13
10	1.61	2.11
11	2.14	1.60
12	3.02	1.31