Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain• Ligue 1, France

#171.5:1.51-2FT20/09 · Orange Vélodrome, Marseille1.5:1.5#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

16.811XBX5.33PIN21.50BTNMargin at best0.1%Books9Markets106Rating40 · 60Exp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Sep 21:34 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	7.50	5.49	1.43	1.5%
Pinnacle	7.39	5.41	1.39	4.0%
Marathonbet	7.30	5.35	1.39	4.3%
Betfair	7.50	5.50	1.36	5.0%
Betano	7.00	5.10	1.40	5.3%
Bet365	7.00	5.25	1.38	5.8%
William Hill	6.50	4.80	1.40	7.6%
BetVictor	7.00	5.00	1.33	9.5%
SBO	6.09	4.77	1.34	12.0%
Best of all books	7.50	5.50	1.43	1.4%
Average	7.03	5.19	1.38	6.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MarseilleParis Saint Germain

Last 10#17Table position#60.60Points per game1.600Form pts · last 5101.5Goals for · last 51.51.5Goals against · last 51.550Attack rating5050Defence rating5038Form rating6320H2H rating8061Goals model3940Overall rating60

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:04 UTC

Marseille

3W 0D 7L · goals 14:19 · per match 1.4 for, 1.9 against

20 Sep	H	Paris Saint Germain	1-2	L
17 Sep	A	Beşiktaş	1-4	L
11 Sep	A	Rennes	0-1	L
6 Sep	H	Paris FC	2-3	L
30 Aug	A	Monaco	0-2	L
21 Aug	H	Strasbourg	4-0	W
14 Aug	H	Atletico Madrid	1-2	L
9 Aug	H	Athletic Club	3-1	W
30 Jul	H	Nimes	2-1	W
25 Jul	H	Nice	0-3	L

Paris Saint Germain

4W 3D 3L · goals 17:14 · per match 1.7 for, 1.4 against

20 Sep	A	Marseille	2-1	W
13 Sep	A	Stade Brestois 29	1-0	W
9 Sep	H	Slovan Bratislava	6-1	W
4 Sep	H	Monaco	1-2	L
28 Aug	A	Lille	2-2	D
23 Aug	A	Rennes	2-2	D
16 Aug	A	Lens	0-1	L
12 Aug	H	Aston Villa	2-1	W
8 Aug	H	Manchester United	1-1	D
5 Aug	A	Mallorca	0-3	L

Head to head

5Marseille wins

5draws

28Paris Saint Germain wins

38 meetings · goals 29:82 · last 10: 2W 1D 7L for Marseille

8 Feb 2026Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Paris Saint Germain5-0Marseille
8 Jan 2026Trophée des Champions	Trophée des Champions	Paris Saint Germain2-2Marseille
22 Sep 2025Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille1-0Paris Saint Germain
16 Mar 2025Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Paris Saint Germain3-1Marseille
27 Oct 2024Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille0-3Paris Saint Germain
31 Mar 2024Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille0-2Paris Saint Germain
24 Sep 2023Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Paris Saint Germain4-0Marseille
26 Feb 2023Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille0-3Paris Saint Germain
8 Feb 2023Coupe de France	Coupe de France	Marseille2-1Paris Saint Germain
16 Oct 2022Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Paris Saint Germain1-0Marseille

Ligue 1 tableLigue 1updated 9 Oct 22:50 UTC

In the Ligue 1 table, Marseille sit 17th with 3 points from 5 games, while Paris Saint Germain are 6th with 8 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8:3	+5	13
2	Lyon	6	3	2	1	11:4	+7	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8:3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8:9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8:7	+1	8
7	Lens	6	2	1	3	11:10	+1	7
8	Angers	5	2	1	2	6:5	+1	7
9	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10:10	0	7
10	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9:9	0	6
11	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7:12	-5	6
12	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7:8	-1	5
13	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
14	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5
15	Nice	5	1	2	2	3:6	-3	5
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4:11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4:7	-3	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg115%6.50X18%5.14267%1.42

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.1% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.36	3.20	4.8%
Pinnacle	1.37	3.14	4.8%
Betano	1.39	3.00	5.3%
Betfair	1.40	2.88	6.2%
1xBet	1.33	2.98	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.33	2.98	8.7%
BetVictor	1.36	2.82	9.0%
Best of all books	1.40	3.20	2.7%
Average	1.36	3.00	6.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Betfair	1.60	2.25	6.9%
Betano	1.55	2.35	7.1%
1xBet	1.53	2.37	7.6%
Marathonbet	1.53	2.34	8.1%
Bet365	1.57	2.25	8.1%
BetVictor	1.50	2.40	8.3%
Best of all books	1.60	2.50	2.5%
Average	1.54	2.35	7.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Marseille 10%Draw 45%Paris Saint Germain 45%

The statistical model rated Marseille at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Paris Saint Germain at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 6.50 | 5.14 | 1.42, which imply roughly 19.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Ligue 1 table: Marseille are 17th (3 pts, 7-8 goals), Paris Saint Germain 6th (8 pts, 8-7).

Over their last five matches, Marseille averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game; Paris Saint Germain averaged 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Paris Saint Germain.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Marseille

4-2-3-1

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Goalkeeper

1J. de Lange

Defence

22T. Weah
4C. Egan-Riley
21N. Aguerd
33Emerson

Midfield

8H. Abdelli
23P. Højbjerg
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
14Igor Paixão

Attack

11N. Maupay

Substitutes (9)

13D. Cornelius
74K. Bezahaf
7A. Gomes
25U. Garcia
48K. Abdallah
46E. Mbondo
43T. Mmadi
29F. Moumbagna
92T. Vermot

Paris Saint Germain

4-3-3

Coach: Luis Enrique

Goalkeeper

39M. Safonov

Defence

33W. Zaïre-Emery
5Marquinhos
51W. Pacho
25Nuno Mendes

Midfield

87João Neves
17Vitinha
8Fabián Ruiz

Attack

14D. Doué
10O. Dembélé
7K. Kvaratskhelia

Substitutes (9)

11M. Akliouche
30L. Chevalier
12L. Digne
27Pedro Fernández
22M. Godts
4Beraldo
24Senny Mayulu
9Ferran Torres
6I. Zabarnyi

Match Statistics

MarseilleParis Saint Germain

329Passes accurate560

7Shots insidebox22

5Shots outsidebox9

5Blocked Shots9

3Free Kicks8

4Shots on Goal10

8Goalkeeper Saves3

3Shots off Goal12

1Offsides2

404Total passes628

1Red Cards0

12Total Shots31

2Yellow Cards1

3Corner Kicks7

9Fouls3

39%Ball Possession61%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
7.03	5.19	1.38

Double chance

1X	X2	12
3.01	1.10	1.15

Draw no bet

1	2
5.36	1.13

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.54	2.35

1st half

1	X	2
5.89	2.76	1.79

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
3.09	24.5	1.36

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	20.7
1.5	1.09	6.55
2.5	1.36	3.00
3.5	1.95	1.88
4.5	3.06	1.35
5.5	5.54	1.12
6.5	9.94	1.05
7.5	17.2	1.02
8.5	34.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	18.0
1.75	1.07	6.03
2	1.09	5.60
2.25	1.21	3.75
2.75	1.43	2.73
3	1.53	2.44
3.25	1.75	2.10
3.75	2.17	1.70
4	2.48	1.51
4.25	2.75	1.42
4.75	3.47	1.24
5	4.55	1.14
5.25	4.85	1.11
6	9.00	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.75	2.74	1.44
+1	2.43	1.56
+1.25	2.06	1.78
+1.5	1.83	1.98
+1.75	1.63	2.22
+2	1.46	2.63

16 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	12.0	1.02
-1	11.5	1.01
-0.75	8.33	1.05
-0.5	6.80	1.10
-0.25	5.52	1.12
0	5.77	1.12
+0.25	3.69	1.27
+0.5	3.06	1.37
+2.25	1.38	2.92
+2.5	1.30	3.23
+2.75	1.21	3.76
+3	1.12	5.08
+3.25	1.11	5.48
+3.5	1.10	5.83
+4	1.02	10.5
+4.5	1.01	11.5

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	11.5
1.5	1.10	6.30
2.5	1.28	3.45
3.5	1.67	2.13
4.5	2.18	1.65
5.5	3.30	1.31
6.5	4.90	1.15
7.5	7.20	1.07
8.5	9.75	1.03

3 more lines

Line	Over	Under
3	1.36	3.00
4	1.99	1.81
5	2.54	1.60

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.01	15.0
3.5	1.02	11.5
4.5	1.05	8.50
5.5	1.08	5.62
6.5	1.20	3.71
7.5	1.41	2.63
8.5	1.76	1.98
9.5	2.21	1.61
10.5	2.83	1.38
11.5	4.02	1.18
12.5	5.57	1.09
13.5	8.52	1.02
14.5	10.8	1.03
15.5	12.5	1.01
16.5	14.0	1.01

17 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5	1.03	5.92
6	1.08	4.70
6.75	1.16	3.72
7	1.21	3.25
7.25	1.27	3.04
7.75	1.39	2.56
8	1.47	2.45
8.25	1.57	2.19
8.75	1.77	1.90
9	1.91	1.87
9.25	2.02	1.67
9.75	2.29	1.49
10	2.42	1.48
10.25	2.69	1.36
11	3.15	1.22
12	4.22	1.11
13	5.42	1.05