Heerenveen vs Excelsior• Eredivisie, Netherlands

#101.6:1.44-0FTToday · Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen1.8:2.2#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.591XBX4.62PIN25.50B365Margin at best2.7%Books6Markets81Rating44 · 56Exp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.59	4.61	5.24	3.7%
1xBet	1.59	4.46	5.31	4.1%
BetVictor	1.55	4.50	5.00	6.7%
Bet365	1.57	4.33	5.00	6.8%
Marathonbet	1.54	4.33	5.15	7.4%
William Hill	1.55	4.20	4.80	9.2%
Best of all books	1.59	4.61	5.31	3.4%
Average	1.57	4.40	5.08	6.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

HeerenveenExcelsior

Last 10#10Table position#91.13Points per game1.385Form pts · last 551.6Goals for · last 51.81.4Goals against · last 52.247Attack rating5361Defence rating3950Form rating5050H2H rating5021Goals model7944Overall rating56

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 19:50 UTC

Heerenveen

3W 4D 3L · goals 18:17 · per match 1.8 for, 1.7 against

9 Oct	A	PSV Eindhoven	0-2	L
19 Sep	A	Sparta Rotterdam	4-0	W
13 Sep	H	Telstar	0-0	D
6 Sep	H	AZ Alkmaar	2-3	L
30 Aug	A	Willem II	2-2	D
22 Aug	H	PEC Zwolle	0-2	L
16 Aug	A	Ajax	2-2	D
9 Aug	H	Twente	1-0	W
1 Aug	H	Volos NFC	3-2	W
25 Jul	H	OH Leuven	4-4	D

Excelsior

5W 2D 3L · goals 26:18 · per match 2.6 for, 1.8 against

11 Oct	H	Groningen	1-5	L
19 Sep	A	Ajax	2-2	D
13 Sep	H	Utrecht	1-2	L
8 Sep	A	NEC Nijmegen	2-2	D
5 Sep	A	Willem II	3-0	W
29 Aug	H	Sparta Rotterdam	2-1	W
15 Aug	H	PSV Eindhoven	1-2	L
7 Aug	A	Cambuur	4-0	W
1 Aug	A	De Graafschap	5-1	W
24 Jul	A	Heracles	5-3	W

Head to head

14Heerenveen wins

3draws

6Excelsior wins

23 meetings · goals 40:30 · last 10: 6W 2D 2L for Heerenveen

7 Mar 2026Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Excelsior1-2Heerenveen
4 Oct 2025Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Heerenveen2-1Excelsior
19 Jan 2024Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Excelsior3-0Heerenveen
23 Sep 2023Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Heerenveen0-3Excelsior
13 May 2023Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Heerenveen0-0Excelsior
5 Nov 2022Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Excelsior0-1Heerenveen
30 Jul 2022Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Heerenveen3-1Excelsior
30 Oct 2019KNVB Beker	KNVB Beker	Excelsior0-3Heerenveen
30 Mar 2019Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Heerenveen1-0Excelsior
22 Sep 2018Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Excelsior3-3Heerenveen

Eredivisie tableEredivisieupdated 16 Oct 20:01 UTC

In the Eredivisie table, Heerenveen sit 10th with 9 points from 8 games, while Excelsior are 9th with 11 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	27:7	+20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	26:10	+16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	18:8	+10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	16:8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	+12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	20:14	+6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	14:15	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	19:17	+2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	16:14	+2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11:11	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	13:14	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	11:19	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	14:25	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13:20	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	7:14	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	6:21	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	9:19	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	7:23	-16	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg161%1.56X21%4.44218%5.20

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.76 → 1.56 -11.4%X3.96 → 4.42 +11.6%24.14 → 5.17 +24.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.41	3.01	4.1%
Bet365	1.40	2.88	6.2%
BetVictor	1.36	2.90	8.0%
1xBet	1.34	2.78	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.34	2.78	10.6%
Best of all books	1.41	3.01	4.1%
Average	1.37	2.87	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.44	2.62	7.6%
William Hill	1.44	2.62	7.6%
1xBet	1.44	2.60	7.9%
BetVictor	1.40	2.70	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.44	2.55	8.7%
Best of all books	1.44	2.70	6.5%
Average	1.43	2.62	8.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Heerenveen 10%Draw 45%Excelsior 45%

The statistical model rated Heerenveen at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Excelsior at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.56 | 4.44 | 5.20, which imply roughly 22.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Eredivisie table: Heerenveen are 10th (9 pts, 11-11 goals), Excelsior 9th (11 pts, 16-14).

Over their last five matches, Heerenveen averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Excelsior averaged 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Excelsior.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Heerenveen

4-2-3-1

Coach: R. Veldeman

Goalkeeper

1B. Klaverboer

Defence

45O. Braude
4S. Kersten
3M. Willemsen
19V. Zagaritis

Midfield

16M. Linday
8N. Courtens
20J. Trenskow
14L. Smans
7M. Rivera

Attack

9D. Vente

Substitutes (12)

23D. Bladi
49Anass Bouziane
21M. Farji
2M. Hilgers
28H. Petrov
29L. Machine
10R. Meerveld
15M. Egbring
44A. Noppert
11L. Oyen
30T. Schreuder
17R. Uldriķis

Excelsior

4-3-3

Coach: R. den Uil

Goalkeeper

1S. van Gassel

Defence

2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
4C. Widell
14J. Plug
15S. Janssen

Midfield

8I. Yegoian
3R. Meissen
20L. Hartjes

Attack

7A. Sliti
19D. Garden
30Á. Þorsteinsson

Substitutes (10)

6D. van Vianen
22O. Turay
18V. Sulzbacher
21I. Silva Timas
10N. Naujoks
11A. Jahanbakhsh
28N. Groen
9Mario Domínguez
24Giulliano Cairo
16Celton Biai

Match Statistics

HeerenveenExcelsior

2.33Expected Goals0.73

444Passes accurate399

12Shots insidebox3

2Shots outsidebox2

1Blocked Shots1

9Free Kicks8

7Shots on Goal1

1Goalkeeper Saves3

6Shots off Goal3

3Offsides0

519Total passes491

14Total Shots5

4Corner Kicks1

0Yellow Cards1

9Fouls10

0Red Cards0

52%Ball Possession48%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.57	4.41	5.08

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.16	2.33	1.19

Draw no bet

1	2
1.23	3.88

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.43	2.62

1st half

1	X	2
1.99	2.64	4.91

2nd half

1	X	2
1.85	2.97	4.33

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.21	15.0	37.0
HT X	4.73	7.47	12.2
HT 2	19.2	16.0	8.53

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.49	22.0	2.57

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	21.5
1.5	1.09	6.45
2.5	1.37	2.87
3.5	1.96	1.81
4.5	3.19	1.31
5.5	5.78	1.11
6.5	11.0	1.05
7.5	21.0	1.01
8.5	41.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	15.0
1.75	1.08	5.60
2	1.10	5.10
2.25	1.22	3.50
2.75	1.44	2.48
3	1.55	2.29
3.25	1.78	1.99
3.75	2.17	1.62
4	2.55	1.45
4.25	2.78	1.34
4.75	3.70	1.20
5	4.80	1.11
5.25	5.15	1.10

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.80	1.42
-1.5	2.38	1.55
-1.25	2.13	1.68
-1	1.88	1.89
-0.75	1.66	2.11
-0.5	1.54	2.41

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	7.80	1.02
-3	7.10	1.04
-2.75	5.20	1.12
-2.5	4.05	1.19
-2.25	3.72	1.22
-2	3.45	1.27
-0.25	1.38	2.86
0	1.21	3.94
+0.25	1.16	4.35
+0.5	1.17	5.00
+0.75	1.08	6.56
+1	1.02	8.65
+1.5	1.02	9.40

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.08	5.75
7.5	1.20	3.75
8.5	1.40	2.66
9.5	1.69	2.07
10.5	2.06	1.68
11.5	2.64	1.41
12.5	3.73	1.20
13.5	4.90	1.12
14.5	6.70	1.05

15 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.07	4.92
8	1.17	3.55
8.25	1.33	2.97
8.75	1.43	2.54
9	1.40	2.65
9.25	1.61	2.17
9.75	1.79	1.89
10	1.81	1.95
10.25	2.02	1.68
10.75	2.28	1.50
11	2.24	1.58
11.25	2.66	1.40
12	2.77	1.33
13	3.52	1.17
14	4.60	1.09