OddsFilter

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen• Eredivisie, Netherlands

#53.4:1.41-1FTToday · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam1.4:2.0#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.35BTNX6.57PIN28.50BVCMargin at best1.1%Books10Markets97Rating57 · 43Exp. goals L54.1

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.356.208.252.3%
Dafabet1.336.407.604.0%
1xBet1.345.907.904.2%
BetVictor1.296.508.504.7%
Pinnacle1.316.577.604.7%
Bet3651.305.758.006.8%
Betfair1.296.007.507.5%
Marathonbet1.315.607.507.5%
William Hill1.305.507.009.4%
SBO1.295.616.5710.6%
Best of all books1.356.578.501.1%
Average1.316.007.646.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AjaxNEC Nijmegen
Last 10#5Table position#112.00Points per game1.1410Form pts · last 523.4Goals for · last 51.41.4Goals against · last 52.071Attack rating2959Defence rating4167Form rating3350H2H rating5052Goals model4857Overall rating43

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 20:10 UTC

Ajax

6W 3D 1L · goals 32:16 · per match 3.2 for, 1.6 against

19 SepHExcelsior2-2D
15 SepHWillem II5-1W
12 SepAFortuna Sittard5-1W
5 SepHPSV Eindhoven1-3L
30 AugATelstar4-0W
27 AugHFC Sion5-3W
20 AugAFC Sion4-2W
16 AugHHeerenveen2-2D
13 AugAShelbourne2-2D
9 AugAPEC Zwolle2-0W

NEC Nijmegen

3W 2D 5L · goals 14:23 · per match 1.4 for, 2.3 against

20 SepHGO Ahead Eagles1-1D
17 SepAJuventus0-5L
12 SepACambuur0-3L
8 SepHExcelsior2-2D
5 SepHFeyenoord1-3L
29 AugAPEC Zwolle3-1W
25 AugABodo/Glimt0-3L
19 AugHBodo/Glimt1-3L
15 AugAWillem II4-1W
11 AugHOlympiakos Piraeus2-1W

Head to head

14Ajax wins
7draws
1NEC Nijmegen wins

22 meetings · goals 56:21 · last 10: 5W 4D 1L for Ajax

21 Feb 2026EredivisieEredivisieAjax1-1NEC Nijmegen
20 Dec 2025EredivisieEredivisieNEC Nijmegen2-2Ajax
11 May 2025EredivisieEredivisieAjax0-3NEC Nijmegen
1 Dec 2024EredivisieEredivisieNEC Nijmegen1-2Ajax
18 Feb 2024EredivisieEredivisieAjax2-2NEC Nijmegen
3 Dec 2023EredivisieEredivisieNEC Nijmegen1-2Ajax
5 Mar 2023EredivisieEredivisieAjax1-0NEC Nijmegen
8 Jan 2023EredivisieEredivisieNEC Nijmegen1-1Ajax
23 Apr 2022EredivisieEredivisieNEC Nijmegen0-1Ajax
14 Aug 2021EredivisieEredivisieAjax5-0NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie tableEredivisieupdated 10 Oct 20:50 UTC

In the Eredivisie table, Ajax sit 5th with 14 points from 7 games, while NEC Nijmegen are 11th with 8 points from 7.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Feyenoord862027:7+2020
2PSV Eindhoven861126:10+1619
3AZ Alkmaar861118:8+1019
4Twente751115:7+816
5Ajax742121:9+1214
6Fortuna Sittard741213:14-113
7Excelsior732215:9+611
8Groningen732215:13+211
9GO Ahead Eagles825119:17+211
10Heerenveen823311:1109
11NEC Nijmegen722312:13-18
12Sparta Rotterdam813413:20-76
13Telstar71245:12-75
14Cambuur712410:19-95
15Utrecht712411:24-135
16PEC Zwolle71156:20-144
17ADO Den Haag70257:17-102
18Willem II70256:20-142

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg172%1.31X16%6.00212%7.64

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

7 Oct 00:0210 Oct 18:401 1.31X 6.002 7.64
11.30 → 1.31 +0.8%X5.57 → 6.00 +7.7%28.18 → 7.64 -6.6%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.234.304.6%
Betano1.263.954.7%
Bet3651.254.005.0%
BetVictor1.224.007.0%
Betfair1.204.008.3%
1xBet1.193.7410.8%
Marathonbet1.193.7410.8%
Best of all books1.264.302.6%
Average1.223.967.2%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betano1.452.627.1%
Bet3651.442.627.6%
Betfair1.442.607.9%
1xBet1.412.698.1%
BetVictor1.402.708.5%
William Hill1.402.708.5%
Marathonbet1.412.648.8%
Best of all books1.452.706.0%
Average1.422.658.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ajax 45%Draw 45%NEC Nijmegen 10%

The statistical model rated Ajax at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and NEC Nijmegen at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.31 | 6.00 | 7.64, which imply roughly 76.3% for a Ajax win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Eredivisie table: Ajax are 5th (14 pts, 21-9 goals), NEC Nijmegen 11th (8 pts, 12-13).

Over their last five matches, Ajax averaged 3.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; NEC Nijmegen averaged 1.4 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Ajax or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Ajax

4-3-3

Coach: Míchel

Goalkeeper

  • 1M. ter Stegen

Defence

  • 2Lucas Rosa
  • 6T. Kehrer
  • 15Y. Baas
  • 5O. Wijndal

Midfield

  • 4S. Amrabat
  • 24J. Mokio
  • 8J. Brandt

Attack

  • 11V. Tsygankov
  • 99T. Arokodare
  • 10O. Gloukh
Substitutes (12)
  • 43Rayane Bounida
  • 28Y. Bissouma
  • 38Marcos Leonardo
  • 68A. Ouazane
  • 26M. Paes
  • 18D. Klaassen
  • 36D. Janse
  • 20O. Edvardsen
  • 7S. Adingra
  • 51C. Setford
  • 30A. Bouwman
  • 21Jofre Torrents

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-2-1

Coach: Dick Schreuder

Goalkeeper

  • 1G. Crettaz

Defence

  • 21T. Storm
  • 4P. Schuurs
  • 24Deveron Fonville
  • 73Gabriel Brás

Midfield

  • 34Kevin Kers
  • 6D. Nejašmić
  • 20N. Lebreton
  • 9T. Chery
  • 10D. Tadić

Attack

  • 30B. Linssen
Substitutes (11)
  • 11W. Willumsson
  • 19Adam Tahaui
  • 12N. Polster
  • 42Y. Moslih
  • 35Jamiro Monteiro
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar
  • 8I. Hansen-Aarøen
  • 36Freek Entius
  • 99Clement Bischoff
  • 5M. Bakker
  • 22A. Kaplan

Match Statistics

AjaxNEC Nijmegen
1.86Expected Goals1.11
404Passes accurate217
13Shots insidebox5
5Shots outsidebox3
5Blocked Shots2
13Free Kicks8
5Shots on Goal2
1Goalkeeper Saves4
8Shots off Goal4
1Offsides5
485Total passes302
18Total Shots8
2Yellow Cards2
4Corner Kicks4
8Fouls13
0Red Cards0
61%Ball Possession39%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.316.007.64

Double chance

1XX212
1.083.311.11

Draw no bet

12
1.106.14

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.422.65

1st half

1X2
1.673.026.06

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.3433.53.09

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0124.7
1.51.048.86
2.51.223.96
3.51.622.26
4.52.371.53
5.53.891.22
6.56.761.09
7.511.81.03
8.521.31.01
9.550.5–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0119.0
1.751.028.10
21.037.60
2.251.114.89
2.751.233.43
31.333.08
3.251.492.54
3.751.752.04
41.931.82
4.252.141.64
4.752.621.38
53.201.26
5.253.481.22
66.001.06

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-2.252.471.48
-22.231.62
-1.751.951.84
-1.51.772.03
-1.251.592.24
-11.432.69
14 more lines
LineHomeAway
-4.58.701.01
-48.101.02
-3.755.761.09
-3.54.611.15
-3.254.351.16
-34.031.19
-2.753.241.30
-2.52.741.41
-0.751.352.99
-0.51.333.38
-0.251.194.05
01.096.07
+0.251.076.40
+1.51.0212.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
2.51.392.82
3.51.871.87
4.52.701.42

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0212.2
5.51.048.17
6.51.115.34
7.51.243.58
8.51.462.49
9.51.811.89
10.52.291.55
11.53.171.30
12.54.451.16
13.56.101.09
14.58.421.04
15.510.81.02
17 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.055.55
71.133.99
7.751.283.04
81.282.80
8.251.362.77
8.751.492.38
91.652.15
9.251.662.05
9.751.871.81
102.011.74
10.252.131.62
10.752.431.44
112.591.43
11.252.881.35
123.401.19
134.491.09
145.651.04