Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda• Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

#171.4:2.00-2FTToday · Lavans Stadion, Helmond2.2:1.6#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

15.111XBX4.62PIN21.57B365Margin at best4.9%Books6Markets82Rating49 · 51 levelExp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	5.03	4.67	1.56	5.4%
Bet365	5.00	4.50	1.55	6.7%
1xBet	5.11	4.50	1.51	8.0%
BetVictor	5.25	4.40	1.50	8.4%
William Hill	4.80	4.33	1.55	8.4%
Marathonbet	5.05	4.50	1.50	8.7%
Best of all books	5.25	4.67	1.56	4.6%
Average	5.04	4.48	1.53	7.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Helmond SportNAC Breda

Last 10#17Table position#50.90Points per game1.704Form pts · last 5101.4Goals for · last 52.22.0Goals against · last 51.639Attack rating6144Defence rating5629Form rating7162H2H rating3854Goals model4649Overall rating51

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 13:40 UTC

Helmond Sport

2W 3D 5L · goals 16:19 · per match 1.6 for, 1.9 against

9 Oct	A	FC OSS	1-3	L
2 Oct	H	Heracles	2-2	D
26 Sep	A	MVV	0-2	L
18 Sep	A	Den Bosch	1-2	L
11 Sep	H	Jong PSV U21	3-1	W
4 Sep	H	VVV Venlo	4-2	W
28 Aug	A	Jong Ajax	2-3	L
21 Aug	H	Waalwijk	1-1	D
14 Aug	A	Roda	1-2	L
9 Aug	H	De Graafschap	1-1	D

NAC Breda

5W 2D 3L · goals 20:19 · per match 2.0 for, 1.9 against

9 Oct	H	MVV	1-0	W
3 Oct	A	Vitesse	2-2	D
26 Sep	H	FC Eindhoven	4-2	W
20 Sep	A	De Graafschap	2-1	W
11 Sep	H	Jong Utrecht	2-3	L
4 Sep	A	Waalwijk	2-4	L
28 Aug	A	Roda	2-2	D
22 Aug	H	Jong Ajax	3-2	W
14 Aug	H	VVV Venlo	0-2	L
7 Aug	A	FC OSS	2-1	W

Head to head

3Helmond Sport wins

4draws

5NAC Breda wins

12 meetings · goals 13:16 · last 10: 2W 3D 5L for Helmond Sport

26 Jan 2024Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport1-0NAC Breda
27 Oct 2023Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda1-1Helmond Sport
13 Jan 2023Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport2-2NAC Breda
5 Aug 2022Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda1-0Helmond Sport
18 Mar 2022Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport4-0NAC Breda
27 Nov 2021Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda1-0Helmond Sport
12 Mar 2021Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda3-2Helmond Sport
6 Sep 2020Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport0-2NAC Breda
10 Jan 2020Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Helmond Sport0-0NAC Breda
16 Aug 2019Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda5-1Helmond Sport

Eerste Divisie tableEerste Divisie: Regular seasonupdated 16 Oct 19:52 UTC

In the Eerste Divisie table, Helmond Sport sit 17th with 9 points from 10 games, while NAC Breda are 5th with 17 points from 10.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31:12	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22:7	+15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	26:14	+12	21
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	22:18	+4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	20:19	+1	17
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	10:8	+2	16
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	13:20	-7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22:17	+5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	19:15	+4	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15:15	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	22:18	+4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	15:17	-2	13
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	15:15	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	14:18	-4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	15:22	-7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13:23	-10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	16:19	-3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	13:25	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13:27	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	16:23	-7	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg119%5.03X21%4.51261%1.54

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

15.52 → 4.99 -9.6%X4.71 → 4.48 -4.9%21.47 → 1.54 +4.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.42	2.86	5.4%
Bet365	1.40	2.88	6.2%
BetVictor	1.40	2.75	7.8%
1xBet	1.37	2.66	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.37	2.66	10.6%
Best of all books	1.42	2.88	5.1%
Average	1.39	2.76	8.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
William Hill	1.50	2.45	7.5%
1xBet	1.49	2.44	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.49	2.40	8.8%
BetVictor	1.47	2.45	8.8%
Best of all books	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Average	1.49	2.45	8.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Helmond Sport 35%Draw 35%NAC Breda 30%

The statistical model rated Helmond Sport at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and NAC Breda at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 5.03 | 4.51 | 1.54, which imply roughly 19.9% for a Helmond Sport win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Eerste Divisie table: Helmond Sport are 17th (9 pts, 16-19 goals), NAC Breda 5th (17 pts, 20-19).

Over their last five matches, Helmond Sport averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; NAC Breda averaged 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Helmond Sport or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Helmond Sport

4-2-3-1

Coach: Frédéric Frans

Goalkeeper

1M. Bergsen

Defence

20S. Dekkers
4B. Koglin
3F. Van Den Eynden
5T. Poll

Midfield

6M. Ludwig
44Xander van der Velde
11L. Cicero
10D. Huiberts
34T. Essakkati

Attack

30K. Ekoli

Substitutes (10)

2R. van Bree
21Wessel van der Heijden
7J. van der Sluijs
26Alto Gjoka
9L. Bajrami
23A. El Maach
47Dayen Geerts
14Lovro Golič
43T. Landheer
35N. Meissner

NAC Breda

4-2-3-1

Coach: R. Kruijs

Goalkeeper

1M. Verrips

Defence

2B. Lucassen
4L. Greiml
22R. Hillen
12J. Van den Bergh

Midfield

78J. Van Hecke
6M. Balard
14K. Sowah
10M. Nassoh
28C. Brym

Attack

9M. Soumano

Substitutes (11)

19P. Gladon
5J. Candelaria
35M. Brouwers
17M. Bouchouari
23R. Kortsmit
31K. Lamprou
27Karim Mperanyi
34I. Nazih
8F. Oldrup Jensen
11G. Misehouy
26P. Reulen

Match Statistics

Helmond SportNAC Breda

0.73Expected Goals1.86

320Passes accurate426

4Shots insidebox6

3Shots outsidebox8

3Blocked Shots4

12Free Kicks12

3Shots on Goal7

5Goalkeeper Saves3

1Shots off Goal3

3Offsides1

402Total passes517

7Total Shots14

1Yellow Cards2

3Corner Kicks4

14Fouls12

0Red Cards0

44%Ball Possession56%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
5.04	4.48	1.53

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.39	1.15	1.17

Draw no bet

1	2
4.00	1.21

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.49	2.45

1st half

1	X	2
5.10	2.65	1.93

2nd half

1	X	2
4.66	2.97	1.79

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	8.97	16.3	17.8
HT X	12.5	7.87	4.65
HT 2	34.7	15.3	2.14

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.62	22.5	1.47

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	19.5
1.5	1.10	6.02
2.5	1.39	2.76
3.5	2.02	1.74
4.5	3.28	1.29
5.5	5.93	1.10
6.5	13.0	1.04
7.5	23.0	1.01
8.5	50.5	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	12.5
1.75	1.10	5.10
2	1.12	4.65
2.25	1.25	3.28
2.75	1.48	2.45
3	1.59	2.18
3.25	1.81	1.91
3.75	2.24	1.57
4	2.60	1.39
4.25	2.88	1.32
4.75	3.76	1.19
5	4.90	1.11
5.25	5.15	1.10
6	9.00	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.5	2.44	1.52
+0.75	2.17	1.63
+1	1.93	1.82
+1.25	1.69	2.04
+1.5	1.56	2.28
+1.75	1.42	2.64

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	9.40	1.01
-1	8.80	1.01
-0.75	6.07	1.09
-0.5	5.00	1.17
-0.25	4.27	1.17
0	3.90	1.22
+0.25	2.88	1.37
+2	1.29	3.31
+2.25	1.23	3.57
+2.5	1.20	3.90
+2.75	1.13	4.88
+3	1.07	6.60
+3.25	1.10	7.00
+3.5	1.04	7.00

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.09	4.57
7.5	1.20	3.32
8.5	1.36	2.69
9.5	1.67	2.05
10.5	2.07	1.68
11.5	2.63	1.38
12.5	3.41	1.21
13.5	4.30	1.11
14.5	5.39	1.05

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.10	4.35
8	1.24	3.05
9	1.51	2.33
9.25	1.52	2.31
9.75	1.72	2.05
10	1.88	1.88
10.25	1.88	1.78
10.75	2.12	1.57
11	2.44	1.47
11.25	2.44	1.42
12	3.10	1.23
13	4.10	1.12
14	5.25	1.06