NAC Breda vs MVV• Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

#92.4:2.418:00Today · Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda1.0:3.0#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.31BTNX6.07PIN29.00B365Margin at best3.9%Books10Markets86Rating67 · 33Exp. goals L54.4

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.31	6.00	8.40	4.9%
Pinnacle	1.29	6.07	8.51	5.7%
Betano	1.31	5.40	8.25	7.0%
Bet365	1.30	5.25	9.00	7.1%
BetVictor	1.29	5.50	8.50	7.5%
1xBet	1.27	5.70	8.50	8.0%
William Hill	1.29	5.50	8.00	8.2%
Marathonbet	1.26	5.70	8.50	8.7%
Betfair	1.25	5.50	9.00	9.3%
SBO	1.28	5.13	6.86	12.2%
Best of all books	1.31	6.07	9.00	3.9%
Average	1.28	5.58	8.35	7.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

NAC BredaMVV

Last 10#9Table position#51.56Points per game1.787Form pts · last 542.4Goals for · last 51.02.4Goals against · last 53.071Attack rating2956Defence rating4464Form rating3680H2H rating2058Goals model4267Overall rating33

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 13:40 UTC

NAC Breda

4W 2D 4L · goals 19:20 · per match 1.9 for, 2.0 against

3 Oct	A	Vitesse	2-2	D
26 Sep	H	FC Eindhoven	4-2	W
20 Sep	A	De Graafschap	2-1	W
11 Sep	H	Jong Utrecht	2-3	L
4 Sep	A	Waalwijk	2-4	L
28 Aug	A	Roda	2-2	D
22 Aug	H	Jong Ajax	3-2	W
14 Aug	H	VVV Venlo	0-2	L
7 Aug	A	FC OSS	2-1	W
1 Aug	A	Bolton	0-1	L

MVV

5W 1D 4L · goals 13:25 · per match 1.3 for, 2.5 against

3 Oct	A	FC OSS	1-4	L
26 Sep	H	Helmond Sport	2-0	W
18 Sep	A	Waalwijk	1-6	L
11 Sep	H	Almere City FC	0-4	L
6 Sep	H	Roda	1-1	D
28 Aug	A	Jong AZ	2-1	W
25 Aug	A	KRC Genk II	0-6	L
21 Aug	H	FC Volendam	1-0	W
14 Aug	A	FC Eindhoven	3-2	W
9 Aug	H	Jong Utrecht	2-1	W

Head to head

9NAC Breda wins

1draws

3MVV wins

13 meetings · goals 30:13 · last 10: 8W 0D 2L for NAC Breda

29 Mar 2024Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda1-2MVV
19 Nov 2023Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	MVV1-4NAC Breda
27 May 2023Eredivisie	Eredivisie	MVV1-4NAC Breda
23 May 2023Eredivisie	Eredivisie	NAC Breda1-0MVV
10 Mar 2023Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda4-1MVV
15 Aug 2022Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	MVV3-1NAC Breda
4 Mar 2022Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	MVV1-2NAC Breda
22 Oct 2021Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda3-0MVV
7 May 2021Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	NAC Breda2-0MVV
6 Nov 2020Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	MVV1-4NAC Breda

Eerste Divisie tableEerste Divisie: Regular seasonupdated 9 Oct 00:21 UTC

In the Eerste Divisie table, NAC Breda sit 9th with 14 points from 9 games, while MVV are 5th with 16 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	9	7	1	1	28:12	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	6	1	2	19:7	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	6	0	3	23:14	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	5	1	3	19:18	+1	16
5	MVV	9	5	1	3	13:19	-6	16
6	Roda	9	4	3	2	9:7	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	3	5	1	19:12	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	15:13	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	4	2	3	19:19	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	22:17	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	4	0	5	20:17	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	3	3	3	14:16	-2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	3	2	4	15:19	-4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	2	3	4	15:16	-1	9
15	FC OSS	9	3	0	6	12:14	-2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	2	2	5	13:18	-5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	13:22	-9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	2	2	5	13:24	-11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	2	2	5	11:22	-11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	15:21	-6	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg172%1.29X17%5.58211%8.35

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.34 → 1.29 -3.7%X5.15 → 5.58 +8.3%27.04 → 8.35 +18.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.38	3.04	5.4%
Betfair	1.36	3.10	5.8%
Bet365	1.40	2.88	6.2%
Betano	1.39	2.85	7.0%
BetVictor	1.36	2.90	8.0%
1xBet	1.32	2.88	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.32	2.88	10.5%
Best of all books	1.40	3.10	3.7%
Average	1.36	2.93	7.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.67	2.15	6.4%
Bet365	1.67	2.10	7.5%
1xBet	1.65	2.11	8.0%
Betano	1.67	2.07	8.2%
BetVictor	1.62	2.15	8.2%
William Hill	1.62	2.15	8.2%
Marathonbet	1.65	2.08	8.7%
Best of all books	1.67	2.15	6.4%
Average	1.65	2.12	7.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

NAC Breda 45%Draw 45%MVV 10%

The statistical model rates NAC Breda at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and MVV at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.29 | 5.58 | 8.35, which imply roughly 77.5% for a NAC Breda win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Eerste Divisie table: NAC Breda are 9th (14 pts, 19-19 goals), MVV 5th (16 pts, 13-19).

Over their last five matches, NAC Breda averaged 2.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game; MVV averaged 1 scored and 3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : NAC Breda or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Confirmed Lineups

NAC Breda

4-2-3-1

Coach: R. Kruijs

Goalkeeper

1M. Verrips

Defence

2B. Lucassen
4L. Greiml
12J. Van den Bergh
22R. Hillen

Midfield

78J. Van Hecke
6M. Balard
14K. Sowah
10M. Nassoh
28C. Brym

Attack

11G. Misehouy

Substitutes (11)

17M. Bouchouari
35M. Brouwers
5J. Candelaria
19P. Gladon
33E. Ikpia
23R. Kortsmit
31K. Lamprou
34I. Nazih
8F. Oldrup Jensen
26P. Reulen
32R. van Aarst

MVV

4-2-3-1

Coach: A. Jonker

Goalkeeper

1H. Wentges

Defence

17S. Wegen
6F. Dicke
22Sven Bouland
25Yael Liesdek

Midfield

18E. Sierra
16R. Klaasen
24N. El Hamdaoui
10O. Dumont
7L. Daneels

Attack

9T. Vinogradac

Substitutes (10)

31Yanis Bourard
21D. Asante
20A. Amgar
12S. van der Heijden
29O. Zimuangana
11T. Verheijen
13S. Timmers
27Naïm Matoug
19Mika Luijendijk
14M. Kuipers

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.29	5.58	8.35

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.06	3.43	1.12

Draw no bet

1	2
1.09	6.88

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.65	2.12

1st half

1	X	2
1.65	2.84	6.96

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.31	24.0	3.29

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	16.9
1.5	1.09	6.34
2.5	1.36	2.93
3.5	1.94	1.81
4.5	3.12	1.33
5.5	5.52	1.12
6.5	10.3	1.05
7.5	21.0	1.01
8.5	41.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	13.0
1.75	1.08	5.70
2	1.10	5.20
2.25	1.21	3.58
2.75	1.44	2.56
3	1.53	2.33
3.25	1.77	2.00
3.75	2.17	1.62
4	2.51	1.47
4.25	2.70	1.36
4.75	3.50	1.22
5	4.60	1.13
5.25	4.89	1.11
6	8.70	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.25	2.54	1.46
-2	2.25	1.58
-1.75	2.00	1.76
-1.5	1.76	2.01
-1.25	1.61	2.21
-1	1.40	2.76

15 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	8.90	1.01
-4	8.30	1.02
-3.75	5.97	1.09
-3.5	4.94	1.14
-3.25	4.56	1.15
-3	4.20	1.17
-2.75	3.34	1.28
-2.5	2.78	1.39
-0.75	1.31	3.15
-0.5	1.30	3.53
-0.25	1.16	4.46
0	1.05	6.70
+0.25	1.07	6.37
+0.5	1.10	6.80
+1.5	1.01	13.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.07	4.89
7.5	1.17	3.59
8.5	1.32	2.97
9.5	1.58	2.23
10.5	1.95	1.77
11.5	2.47	1.47
12.5	3.23	1.26
13.5	3.97	1.13
14.5	4.64	1.09

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.08	4.67
8	1.20	3.32
9	1.41	2.59
9.25	1.47	2.44
9.75	1.66	2.15
10	1.80	1.96
10.25	1.82	1.84
10.75	2.05	1.65
11	2.28	1.54
11.25	2.31	1.48
12	2.85	1.27
13	3.77	1.15
14	4.87	1.07