Heracles vs Waalwijk• Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

#12.4:1.03-0LiveToday · Polman Stadion, Armello2.6:1.2#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.48DAFX5.04PIN26.50B365Margin at best2.8%Books10Markets77Rating55 · 45Exp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.48	5.00	5.80	4.8%
Pinnacle	1.45	5.04	5.88	5.8%
Betano	1.47	4.65	5.80	6.8%
Bet365	1.44	4.50	6.50	7.1%
Betfair	1.44	4.75	6.00	7.2%
1xBet	1.45	4.75	5.56	8.0%
BetVictor	1.44	4.60	5.75	8.6%
Marathonbet	1.41	4.85	5.85	8.6%
William Hill	1.44	4.60	5.50	9.4%
SBO	1.41	4.37	5.22	13.0%
Best of all books	1.48	5.04	6.50	2.8%
Average	1.44	4.71	5.79	7.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

HeraclesWaalwijk

Last 10#1Table position#72.44Points per game1.5610Form pts · last 5102.4Goals for · last 52.61.0Goals against · last 51.248Attack rating5255Defence rating4550Form rating5062H2H rating3871Goals model2955Overall rating45

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 13:40 UTC

Heracles

7W 1D 2L · goals 31:17 · per match 3.1 for, 1.7 against

2 Oct	A	Helmond Sport	2-2	D
26 Sep	H	Vitesse	2-0	W
18 Sep	A	Almere City FC	0-1	L
11 Sep	H	Jong AZ	3-2	W
4 Sep	H	De Graafschap	5-0	W
30 Aug	A	FC Eindhoven	3-1	W
24 Aug	A	Jong Utrecht	6-1	W
14 Aug	H	Den Bosch	3-2	W
7 Aug	A	VVV Venlo	4-3	W
24 Jul	H	Excelsior	3-5	L

Waalwijk

4W 5D 1L · goals 22:12 · per match 2.2 for, 1.2 against

3 Oct	H	Emmen	1-1	D
26 Sep	A	Roda	0-2	L
18 Sep	H	MVV	6-1	W
11 Sep	A	Jong Ajax	2-0	W
4 Sep	H	NAC Breda	4-2	W
28 Aug	H	Jong PSV U21	2-2	D
21 Aug	A	Helmond Sport	1-1	D
14 Aug	H	Dordrecht	2-2	D
7 Aug	A	Vitesse	1-1	D
2 Aug	H	Kifisia	3-0	W

Head to head

9Heracles wins

5draws

5Waalwijk wins

19 meetings · goals 34:29 · last 10: 4W 2D 4L for Heracles

2 Aug 2025Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Heracles3-1Waalwijk
6 Apr 2025Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Waalwijk0-0Heracles
23 Nov 2024Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Heracles2-2Waalwijk
5 May 2024Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Heracles0-5Waalwijk
12 Jan 2024Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Waalwijk1-2Heracles
11 May 2022Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Waalwijk2-0Heracles
26 Sep 2021Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Heracles1-0Waalwijk
30 Jul 2021Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Heracles4-1Waalwijk
21 Feb 2021Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Waalwijk3-0Heracles
17 Oct 2020Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Heracles0-1Waalwijk

Eerste Divisie tableEerste Divisie: Regular seasonupdated 9 Oct 00:21 UTC

In the Eerste Divisie table, Heracles sit 1st with 22 points from 9 games, while Waalwijk are 7th with 14 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	9	7	1	1	28:12	+16	22
2	Almere City FC	9	6	1	2	19:7	+12	19
3	VVV Venlo	9	6	0	3	23:14	+9	18
4	Emmen	9	5	1	3	19:18	+1	16
5	MVV	9	5	1	3	13:19	-6	16
6	Roda	9	4	3	2	9:7	+2	15
7	Waalwijk	9	3	5	1	19:12	+7	14
8	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	15:13	+2	14
9	NAC Breda	9	4	2	3	19:19	0	14
10	Jong AZ	9	4	1	4	22:17	+5	13
11	FC Volendam	9	4	0	5	20:17	+3	12
12	Jong PSV U21	9	3	3	3	14:16	-2	12
13	FC Eindhoven	9	3	2	4	15:19	-4	11
14	Helmond Sport	9	2	3	4	15:16	-1	9
15	FC OSS	9	3	0	6	12:14	-2	9
16	Den Bosch	9	2	2	5	13:18	-5	8
17	Jong Ajax	9	2	2	5	13:22	-9	8
18	Dordrecht	9	2	2	5	13:24	-11	8
19	De Graafschap	9	2	2	5	11:22	-11	8
20	Jong Utrecht	9	2	1	6	15:21	-6	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg162%1.50X21%4.49218%5.25

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.53 → 1.44 -5.9%X4.39 → 4.71 +7.3%24.96 → 5.79 +16.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.40	2.92	5.7%
Betfair	1.40	2.88	6.2%
Bet365	1.44	2.70	6.5%
Betano	1.42	2.75	6.8%
BetVictor	1.36	2.88	8.3%
1xBet	1.35	2.74	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.33	2.81	10.8%
Best of all books	1.44	2.92	3.7%
Average	1.39	2.81	7.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.50	2.55	5.9%
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
William Hill	1.50	2.45	7.5%
1xBet	1.49	2.44	8.1%
BetVictor	1.50	2.40	8.3%
Betano	1.53	2.32	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.50	2.38	8.7%
Best of all books	1.53	2.55	4.6%
Average	1.50	2.43	7.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Heracles 45%Draw 45%Waalwijk 10%

The statistical model rates Heracles at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Waalwijk at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.50 | 4.49 | 5.25, which imply roughly 66.7% for a Heracles win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Eerste Divisie table: Heracles are 1st (22 pts, 28-12 goals), Waalwijk 7th (14 pts, 19-12).

Over their last five matches, Heracles averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Waalwijk averaged 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Heracles or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Confirmed Lineups

Heracles

4-2-3-1

Coach: V. Heilmann

Goalkeeper

1F. de Keijzer

Defence

2M. Benita
4D. Mirani
14M. Wrusch
25Manny

Midfield

5D. van der Kust
32S. Scheperman
7C. Abbas
17T. van Gilst
18M. Hauswirth

Attack

27J. N'djoli

Substitutes (12)

6D. Tomić
23M. te Wierik
26D. van Kaam
30D. van Oorschot
10T. Bruns
3Mario Borac
35S. Bultman
8M. Engels
16T. Jansink
9V. Poppler
11J. Reine-Adélaïde
33L. Zeevalkink

Waalwijk

4-2-3-1

Coach: Sander Duits

Goalkeeper

1N. Schiks

Defence

33F. Al Mazyani
30J. de Wijs
4L. van Gelderen
55N. Held

Midfield

8J. Nap
6L. Postma
7R. Fage
22T. van de Loo
93V. Misidjan

Attack

9J. van de Haar

Substitutes (11)

13Xander Mulder
25N. Bakboord
24A. Dkidak
42B. Kemmeren
20Keyan Varela
16M. Spenkelink
27F. Stokkers
19H. van Gemert
18R. van Hedel
3S. van der Plas
11Yorem van der Veen

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.44	4.71	5.79

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.12	2.62	1.16

Draw no bet

1	2
1.18	4.45

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.50	2.43

1st half

1	X	2
1.89	2.64	5.17

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.43	23.5	2.78

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	15.6
1.5	1.10	6.13
2.5	1.39	2.81
3.5	2.01	1.76
4.5	3.24	1.30
5.5	5.86	1.11
6.5	11.3	1.04
7.5	23.0	1.01
8.5	50.5	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	12.5
1.75	1.08	5.63
2	1.10	5.15
2.25	1.22	3.49
2.75	1.47	2.50
3	1.57	2.25
3.25	1.82	1.94
3.75	2.23	1.58
4	2.57	1.40
4.25	2.85	1.33
4.75	3.79	1.19
5	5.03	1.11
5.25	5.35	1.09

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.49	1.47
-1.5	2.17	1.63
-1.25	1.95	1.80
-1	1.71	2.09
-0.75	1.56	2.31
-0.5	1.49	2.53

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	7.03	1.05
-3	6.47	1.07
-2.75	4.70	1.14
-2.5	3.72	1.22
-2.25	3.42	1.27
-2	3.11	1.32
-0.25	1.30	3.21
0	1.17	4.39
+0.25	1.13	4.88
+0.5	1.15	5.50
+0.75	1.06	7.20
+1	1.02	8.80
+1.5	1.02	10.1

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.08	4.82
7.5	1.17	3.52
8.5	1.35	2.84
9.5	1.62	2.15
10.5	2.01	1.72
11.5	2.58	1.42
12.5	3.39	1.24
13.5	4.05	1.12
14.5	5.10	1.06

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.09	4.60
8	1.21	3.27
9	1.44	2.51
9.25	1.52	2.30
9.75	1.72	2.04
10	1.83	1.93
10.25	1.89	1.77
10.75	2.11	1.56
11	2.32	1.52
11.25	2.46	1.42
12	2.90	1.26
13	3.85	1.14
14	4.97	1.07