OddsFilter

AC Milan vs Lecce• Serie A, Italy

#51.8:1.03-0FT20/09 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano1.3:1.8#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.291XBX6.291XB213.0BVCMargin at best1.1%Books9Markets104Rating66 · 34Exp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Sep 21:24 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet1.306.0412.71.4%
Betfair1.256.0013.04.4%
Pinnacle1.275.8611.54.5%
Marathonbet1.275.7012.04.6%
Betano1.285.5011.55.0%
Bet3651.275.7511.05.2%
BetVictor1.225.7512.07.7%
William Hill1.255.0011.09.1%
SBO1.245.038.4912.3%
Best of all books1.306.0413.01.2%
Average1.265.6311.55.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AC MilanLecce
Last 10#5Table position#122.20Points per game1.208Form pts · last 561.8Goals for · last 51.31.0Goals against · last 51.858Attack rating4264Defence rating3657Form rating43100H2H rating0100Goals model066Overall rating34

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 19:32 UTC

AC Milan

4W 4D 2L · goals 17:14 · per match 1.7 for, 1.4 against

20 SepHLecce3-0W
16 SepHBenfica0-2L
12 SepALazio2-2D
6 SepAJuventus1-1D
28 AugHVenezia2-0W
23 AugATorino2-1W
15 AugAManchester United4-2W
8 AugAChelsea0-3L
5 AugHInter1-1D
25 JulACeltic2-2D

Lecce

4W 1D 5L · goals 13:17 · per match 1.3 for, 1.7 against

20 SepAAC Milan0-3L
13 SepHMonza3-2W
7 SepACagliari0-1L
31 AugHAS Roma0-4L
23 AugAVenezia2-0W
17 AugAPalermo0-2L
9 AugHSS Monopoli1-0W
29 JulHBistrica5-2W
25 JulHIstra 19612-2D
22 JulHFC Politehnica Timisoara0-1L

Head to head

11AC Milan wins
4draws
0Lecce wins

15 meetings · goals 38:13 · last 10: 8W 2D 0L for AC Milan

18 Jan 2026Serie ASerie AAC Milan1-0Lecce
23 Sep 2025Coppa ItaliaCoppa ItaliaAC Milan3-0Lecce
29 Aug 2025Serie ASerie ALecce0-2AC Milan
8 Mar 2025Serie ASerie ALecce2-3AC Milan
27 Sep 2024Serie ASerie AAC Milan3-0Lecce
6 Apr 2024Serie ASerie AAC Milan3-0Lecce
11 Nov 2023Serie ASerie ALecce2-2AC Milan
23 Apr 2023Serie ASerie AAC Milan2-0Lecce
14 Jan 2023Serie ASerie ALecce2-2AC Milan
22 Jun 2020Serie ASerie ALecce1-4AC Milan

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 10 Oct 21:20 UTC

In the Serie A table, AC Milan sit 5th with 11 points from 5 games, while Lecce are 12th with 6 points from 5.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Inter651018:8+1016
2AS Roma541014:3+1113
3Lazio54108:3+513
4Cagliari54015:2+312
5AC Milan532010:4+611
6Frosinone53119:4+510
7Juventus53118:4+410
8Como53119:6+310
9Napoli52127:6+17
10Sassuolo52129:907
11Atalanta52035:7-26
12Lecce52035:10-56
13Udinese51138:11-34
14Torino51135:8-34
15Monza51138:12-44
16Genoa61145:11-64
17Parma61144:10-64
18Fiorentina61147:14-74
19Bologna50233:6-32
20Venezia50054:13-90

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg176%1.24X16%5.9828%12.3

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

20 Sep 12:1120 Sep 13:311 1.26X 5.952 11.6
11.26 → 1.26 0.0%X5.92 → 5.95 +0.5%211.8 → 11.6 -1.4%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.722.311.4%
Pinnacle1.682.263.8%
Betano1.672.254.3%
SBO1.672.234.7%
Marathonbet1.662.235.1%
Bet3651.672.205.3%
Betfair1.622.256.2%
BetVictor1.622.128.9%
Best of all books1.722.311.4%
Average1.662.234.9%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betano2.151.657.1%
Bet3652.201.627.2%
Betfair2.201.627.2%
William Hill2.101.677.5%
1xBet2.161.637.6%
Marathonbet2.171.618.2%
BetVictor2.151.628.2%
Best of all books2.201.675.3%
Average2.161.637.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

AC Milan 45%Draw 45%Lecce 10%

The statistical model rated AC Milan at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Lecce at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.24 | 5.98 | 12.32, which imply roughly 80.6% for a AC Milan win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: AC Milan are 5th (11 pts, 10-4 goals), Lecce 12th (6 pts, 5-10).

Over their last five matches, AC Milan averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Lecce averaged 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : AC Milan or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

AC Milan

3-4-2-1

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Goalkeeper

  • 16Mike Maignan

Defence

  • 34Mario Gila
  • 5Koni De Winter
  • 31Strahinja Pavlović

Midfield

  • 21Samuel Chukwueze
  • 14Luka Modrić
  • 12Adrien Rabiot
  • 2Pervis Estupiñán

Attack

  • 11Christian Pulišić
  • 56Alexis Saelemaekers
  • 9Gonçalo Ramos
Substitutes (15)
  • 96Lorenzo Torriani
  • 1Pietro Terracciano
  • 13Sankhoun Diawara
  • 42Filippo Terracciano
  • 46Matteo Gabbia
  • 23Fikayo Tomori
  • 80Yunus Musah
  • 22Diego Moreira
  • 28Christian Comotto
  • 33Davide Bartesaghi
  • 30Ardon Jashari
  • 20Omari Hutchinson
  • 8Ruben Loftus-Cheek
  • 73Francesco Camarda
  • 70Alphadjo Cissè

Lecce

4-3-3

Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

Goalkeeper

  • 30Wladimiro Falcone

Defence

  • 17Danilo Veiga
  • 4Kialonda Gaspar
  • 5Jamil Siebert
  • 25Antonino Gallo

Midfield

  • 29Lassana Coulibaly
  • 20Ivan Ilić
  • 14Youssef Maleh

Attack

  • 50Santiago Pierotti
  • 9Nikola Štulić
  • 99Joël Monteiro
Substitutes (13)
  • 32Alexandru Borbei
  • 1Marco Bleve
  • 31Elijah Scott
  • 18Gaby Jean
  • 2Ali Dembélé
  • 3Corrie Ndaba
  • 79Oumar Ngom
  • 28Olaf Gorter
  • 8Sadik Fofana
  • 77Mohamed Kaba
  • 22Paco Esteban
  • 7Amar Fatah
  • 11Konan N'Dri

Match Statistics

AC MilanLecce
4Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal1
10Total Shots6
4Blocked Shots2
8Shots insidebox4
2Shots outsidebox2
7Fouls14
2Corner Kicks3
4Offsides1
70%Ball Possession30%
0Yellow Cards1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
697Total passes294
636Passes accurate241
91%Passes %82%
1.93Expected Goals0.17
-1.11Goals Prevented-1.11

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.265.6311.5

Double chance

1XX212
1.043.721.13

Draw no bet

12
1.068.22

Both teams to score

YesNo
2.161.63

1st half

1X2
1.682.588.95

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.2715.14.15

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0313.0
1.51.194.37
2.51.662.23
3.52.581.47
4.54.631.17
5.58.691.05
6.517.21.02
7.534.0–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.019.25
1–9.90
1.251.095.66
1.751.233.81
21.303.36
2.251.492.63
2.751.832.00
32.061.74
3.252.311.57
3.753.001.35
43.621.21
4.253.981.17
4.755.301.09
57.151.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-2.52.961.36
-2.252.631.46
-22.341.57
-1.752.011.82
-1.51.792.04
-1.251.592.37
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-48.701.01
-3.756.251.06
-3.55.411.12
-3.254.851.13
-34.491.15
-2.753.531.26
-11.373.00
-0.751.303.36
-0.51.283.68
-0.251.145.01
01.067.13

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
0.51.049.50
1.51.174.60
2.51.512.43
3.52.051.72
4.53.181.32
5.54.751.16
6.57.201.07
7.510.01.03
8.512.01.01
2 more lines
LineOverUnder
31.682.15
42.821.41

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
3.51.0112.0
4.51.058.96
5.51.095.68
6.51.213.70
7.51.412.63
8.51.751.99
9.52.251.59
10.52.951.35
11.54.221.17
12.55.891.09
13.58.161.03
14.513.31.02
15.511.51.02
16.513.01.01
17 more lines
LineOverUnder
51.045.59
61.094.59
6.751.173.58
71.223.17
7.251.302.94
7.751.412.48
81.492.40
8.251.602.14
8.751.811.85
91.961.84
9.252.061.64
9.752.341.47
102.521.45
10.252.761.33
113.201.21
124.321.10
135.521.05