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Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima• Primera A, Colombia

#11.8:1.223:05Today · Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí, Itagui0.6:1.0#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.67PINX3.95BTN25.80BTNMargin at best2.4%Books10Markets86Rating68 · 32Exp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Oct 20:09 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.674.005.802.1%
Pinnacle1.653.915.295.1%
Bet3651.673.605.505.8%
Dafabet1.653.805.006.9%
1xBet1.633.755.027.9%
Betfair1.623.805.008.0%
BetVictor1.623.755.008.4%
Marathonbet1.613.755.058.6%
William Hill1.653.604.809.2%
SBO1.553.444.3316.7%
Best of all books1.674.005.802.1%
Average1.633.745.087.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima
Last 10#1Table position#62.11Points per game1.638Form pts · last 531.8Goals for · last 50.61.2Goals against · last 51.075Attack rating2545Defence rating5577Form rating2371H2H rating2980Goals model2068Overall rating32

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 8 Oct 20:01 UTC

Atletico Nacional

7W 2D 1L · goals 22:10 · per match 2.2 for, 1.0 against

1 OctHJunior3-1W
26 SepHChapecoense-sc1-1D
25 SepHMillonarios1-1D
21 SepALlaneros0-2L
17 SepAInternacional de Bogota3-2W
13 SepHÁguilas Doradas2-0W
8 SepHDeportivo Cali3-0W
30 AugAAlianza Valledupar5-1W
27 AugHDeportivo Cali2-1W
23 AugAFortaleza FC2-1W

Deportes Tolima

2W 4D 4L · goals 8:11 · per match 0.8 for, 1.1 against

3 OctHChico0-0D
27 SepAFortaleza FC2-2D
20 SepHAmerica de Cali1-1D
16 SepAOnce Caldas0-1L
12 SepASanta Fe0-1L
7 SepALlaneros2-1W
1 SepHCucuta2-1W
26 AugAIndependiente del Valle1-3L
22 AugHBucaramanga0-0D
19 AugHIndependiente del Valle0-1L

Head to head

12Atletico Nacional wins
8draws
17Deportes Tolima wins

37 meetings · goals 43:47 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for Atletico Nacional

23 May 2026Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional3-1Deportes Tolima
16 May 2026Primera APrimera ADeportes Tolima0-1Atletico Nacional
2 Mar 2026Primera APrimera ADeportes Tolima1-0Atletico Nacional
2 Aug 2025Primera APrimera ADeportes Tolima0-0Atletico Nacional
20 Mar 2025Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional4-3Deportes Tolima
22 Dec 2024Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional2-0Deportes Tolima
19 Dec 2024Primera APrimera ADeportes Tolima1-1Atletico Nacional
15 Nov 2024Primera APrimera ADeportes Tolima1-0Atletico Nacional
28 Apr 2024Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional3-1Deportes Tolima
9 Nov 2023Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional2-3Deportes Tolima

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 8 Oct 04:11 UTC

In the Primera A table, Atletico Nacional sit 1st with 40 points from 19 games, while Deportes Tolima are 6th with 31 points from 19.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19131535:15+2040
2Junior19112631:24+735
3Deportivo Pasto19104529:25+434
4America de Cali19103625:15+1033
5Once Caldas1989231:22+933
6Deportes Tolima1987427:17+1031
7Santa Fe1978429:22+729
8Internacional de Bogota1977526:26028
9Deportivo Cali1976620:16+427
10Millonarios1975731:23+826
11Independiente Medellin1975726:24+226
12Águilas Doradas1975720:25-526
13Bucaramanga1958626:20+623
14Llaneros19410517:20-322
15Fortaleza FC1957722:27-522
16Jaguares19531120:33-1318
17Alianza Valledupar1938813:27-1417
18Chico19521215:32-1717
19Cucuta1937922:35-1316
20Deportivo Pereira19171115:32-1710

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg157%1.64X25%3.73218%5.05

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

5 Oct 00:018 Oct 18:311 1.64X 3.732 5.05
11.63 → 1.64 +0.6%X3.94 → 3.73 -5.3%24.88 → 5.05 +3.5%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.871.974.2%
Bet3651.802.005.6%
Betano1.821.956.2%
SBO1.762.006.8%
1xBet1.821.917.3%
Marathonbet1.821.917.3%
BetVictor1.781.908.8%
Betfair1.751.919.5%
Best of all books1.872.003.5%
Average1.801.946.9%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
1xBet1.811.907.9%
Bet3651.801.917.9%
Betano1.781.938.0%
BetVictor1.781.938.0%
Betfair1.751.958.4%
William Hill1.751.958.4%
Marathonbet1.811.878.7%
Best of all books1.811.956.5%
Average1.781.928.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico Nacional 45%Draw 45%Deportes Tolima 10%

The statistical model rates Atletico Nacional at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Deportes Tolima at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.64 | 3.73 | 5.05, which imply roughly 61% for a Atletico Nacional win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Atletico Nacional are 1st (40 pts, 35-15 goals), Deportes Tolima 6th (31 pts, 27-17).

Over their last five matches, Atletico Nacional averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Deportes Tolima averaged 0.6 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Atletico Nacional or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.633.745.08

Double chance

1XX212
1.142.181.23

Draw no bet

12
1.243.75

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.781.92

1st half

1X2
2.152.225.09

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.4911.52.82

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0310.1
1.51.243.64
2.51.801.94
3.53.001.34
4.55.711.11
5.510.61.03
6.519.31.01
7.550.5–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.90
11.018.50
1.251.124.75
1.751.283.08
21.382.75
2.251.602.23
2.752.021.73
32.381.51
3.252.611.44
3.753.581.21
44.851.11
4.255.201.10
4.756.451.05
59.101.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.52.721.41
-1.252.421.52
-12.101.69
-0.751.791.95
-0.51.632.24
-0.251.432.67
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.59.871.02
-39.751.01
-2.756.801.07
-2.55.481.12
-2.254.871.14
-24.331.18
-1.753.321.29
01.233.77
+0.251.184.33
+0.51.165.25
+0.751.076.49
+11.028.70
+1.51.0210.1

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
5.51.672.12
6.52.101.67

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.065.51
7.51.253.42
8.51.482.43
9.51.871.85
10.52.341.52
11.53.141.30
12.54.321.13
13.56.571.03
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
6.751.085.26
71.095.01
7.251.164.04
7.751.253.27
81.283.09
8.251.382.70
8.751.522.31
91.722.03
9.251.712.02
9.751.911.80
102.041.69
10.252.161.61
10.752.471.46
112.741.37
11.252.891.33
11.753.411.23
123.961.16
12.254.141.15
12.755.031.09
136.151.04
13.256.361.03