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Chico vs Atletico Nacional• Primera A, Colombia

#180.8:1.21-4FTToday · Estadio La Independencia, Tunja1.4:1.2#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

16.55PINX4.23PIN21.60B365Margin at best1.4%Books6Markets86Rating39 · 62Exp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 12:23 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle6.554.231.515.1%
Bet3656.003.751.605.8%
1xBet6.384.051.487.9%
BetVictor6.004.001.508.3%
Marathonbet6.304.051.478.6%
William Hill6.504.001.449.8%
Best of all books6.554.231.601.4%
Average6.294.011.507.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ChicoAtletico Nacional
Last 10#18Table position#10.89Points per game2.114Form pts · last 5110.8Goals for · last 51.41.2Goals against · last 51.236Attack rating6450Defence rating5033Form rating6729H2H rating7156Goals model4439Overall rating62

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 22:01 UTC

Chico

3W 3D 4L · goals 11:13 · per match 1.1 for, 1.3 against

17 OctHAtletico Nacional1-4L
11 OctHCucuta0-1L
3 OctADeportes Tolima0-0D
25 SepHDeportivo Pasto3-0W
19 SepAMillonarios0-3L
16 SepHAlianza Valledupar1-2L
12 SepHIndependiente Medellin2-1W
5 SepHOnce Caldas2-0W
30 AugAÁguilas Doradas2-2D
26 AugHFortaleza FC0-0D

Atletico Nacional

6W 3D 1L · goals 20:10 · per match 2.0 for, 1.0 against

17 OctAChico4-1W
15 OctHIndependiente Medellin3-2W
8 OctHDeportes Tolima0-0D
1 OctHJunior3-1W
26 SepHChapecoense-sc1-1D
25 SepHMillonarios1-1D
21 SepALlaneros0-2L
17 SepAInternacional de Bogota3-2W
13 SepHÁguilas Doradas2-0W
8 SepHDeportivo Cali3-0W

Head to head

1Chico wins
3draws
9Atletico Nacional wins

13 meetings · goals 12:34 · last 10: 1W 1D 8L for Chico

17 Jan 2026Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional4-0Chico
6 Oct 2025Primera APrimera AChico1-1Atletico Nacional
16 Apr 2025Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional4-1Chico
29 Sep 2024Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional6-2Chico
17 Mar 2024Primera APrimera AChico2-1Atletico Nacional
22 Oct 2023Primera APrimera AChico1-3Atletico Nacional
7 May 2023Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional3-1Chico
7 Feb 2021Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional2-0Chico
12 Feb 2020Primera APrimera AChico0-3Atletico Nacional
30 Sep 2018Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional3-2Chico

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 17 Oct 22:01 UTC

In the Primera A table, Chico sit 18th with 17 points from 19 games, while Atletico Nacional are 1st with 40 points from 19.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19131535:15+2040
2Junior19112631:24+735
3Deportivo Pasto19104529:25+434
4America de Cali19103625:15+1033
5Once Caldas1989231:22+933
6Deportes Tolima1987427:17+1031
7Santa Fe1978429:22+729
8Internacional de Bogota1977526:26028
9Deportivo Cali1976620:16+427
10Millonarios1975731:23+826
11Independiente Medellin1975726:24+226
12Águilas Doradas1975720:25-526
13Bucaramanga1958626:20+623
14Llaneros19410517:20-322
15Fortaleza FC1957722:27-522
16Jaguares19531120:33-1318
17Alianza Valledupar1938813:27-1417
18Chico19521215:32-1717
19Cucuta1937922:35-1316
20Deportivo Pereira19171115:32-1710

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg113%7.05X22%4.22265%1.43

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14 Oct 00:0117 Oct 14:411 6.29X 4.012 1.50
16.39 → 6.29 -1.6%X3.97 → 4.01 +1.0%21.49 → 1.50 +0.7%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.842.014.1%
Bet3651.802.005.6%
1xBet1.801.937.4%
Marathonbet1.801.937.4%
BetVictor1.781.908.8%
Best of all books1.842.014.1%
Average1.801.956.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.911.807.9%
William Hill1.851.858.1%
1xBet1.891.818.2%
BetVictor1.851.838.7%
Marathonbet1.891.798.8%
Best of all books1.911.856.4%
Average1.881.828.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Chico 10%Draw 45%Atletico Nacional 45%

The statistical model rated Chico at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Atletico Nacional at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 7.05 | 4.22 | 1.43, which imply roughly 23.7% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Chico are 18th (17 pts, 15-32 goals), Atletico Nacional 1st (40 pts, 35-15).

Over their last five matches, Chico averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Atletico Nacional averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Nacional.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Chico

4-4-2

Coach: J. Gómez

Goalkeeper

  • 1D. Agudelo

Defence

  • 24C. Mosquera
  • 5J. Alomía
  • 4J. Mena
  • 14C. Blanco

Midfield

  • 17E. Sarria
  • 8S. Salazar
  • 6J. Díaz
  • 16S. Mera

Attack

  • 22Alejandro Maya
  • 21J. Pimentel
Substitutes (9)
  • 20sebastian viveros
  • 11D. Ramírez
  • 2D. Polanco
  • 12B. Zapata
  • 19J. Pimentel Betancourt
  • 15S. Navarro
  • 29Luis Carabalí
  • 9I. Camargo
  • 10Y. Cabrera

Atletico Nacional

4-2-3-1

Coach: L. González

Goalkeeper

  • 34F. Armani

Defence

  • 32Emmanuel Benítez
  • 3N. Parra
  • 4C. Haydar
  • 20M. Casco

Midfield

  • 31X. Rios
  • 14Elkin Rivero
  • 80J. Zapata
  • 22E. Cabrera
  • 10E. Cardona

Attack

  • 19J. Rengifo
Substitutes (9)
  • 26F. Marin
  • 25L. Marquinez
  • 36Jose Escorcia
  • 38Jhan Carlos Moreno Córdoba
  • 30K. Parra
  • 13N. Rodríguez
  • 29A. Sarmiento
  • 33S. Velásquez
  • 39Edwin Fernelis Echeverría Muñoz

Match Statistics

ChicoAtletico Nacional
1.27Expected Goals1.21
232Passes accurate434
6Shots insidebox7
5Shots outsidebox5
3Blocked Shots3
10Free Kicks12
4Shots on Goal5
1Goalkeeper Saves2
4Shots off Goal4
4Offsides2
300Total passes502
11Total Shots12
2Yellow Cards3
5Corner Kicks5
13Fouls10
0Red Cards0
38%Ball Possession62%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
6.294.011.50

Double chance

1XX212
2.451.101.20

Draw no bet

12
4.801.17

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.881.82

1st half

1X2
6.242.302.00

2nd half

1X2
5.692.621.81

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 111.018.023.7
HT X13.05.834.14
HT 250.716.82.19

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
3.0911.51.41

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0310.2
1.51.243.66
2.51.801.95
3.52.981.34
4.55.841.10
5.512.01.04
6.526.01.01
7.550.5–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.85
11.018.50
1.251.114.85
1.751.273.14
21.382.81
2.251.592.24
2.752.001.74
32.331.52
3.252.621.42
3.753.501.22
44.651.12
4.255.001.10
4.756.901.05
58.901.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
+0.52.591.47
+0.752.221.59
+11.941.81
+1.251.652.11
+1.51.522.35
+1.751.402.75
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-0.757.901.02
-0.56.801.10
-0.255.321.12
05.011.14
+0.253.241.30
+21.253.59
+2.251.213.94
+2.51.174.25
+2.751.105.47
+31.027.90
+3.51.018.60

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.027.00
6.51.144.26
7.51.342.83
8.51.652.09
9.52.091.66
10.52.741.37
11.53.831.18
12.55.771.05
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
5.751.026.71
61.026.84
6.251.085.17
6.751.164.04
71.183.82
7.251.263.20
7.751.392.66
81.442.50
8.251.552.26
8.751.741.97
91.851.89
9.251.961.75
9.752.231.57
102.441.47
10.252.581.42
10.753.031.30
113.481.22
11.253.661.20
11.754.421.12
125.351.07
12.255.561.06