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Universitario vs FBC Melgar• Primera División, Peru

#22.2:1.82-2FT11/10 · Estadio Monumental U Marathon, Lima1.2:0.6#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.87DAFX3.40BVC25.48PINMargin at best1.1%Books10Markets84Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 20:24 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.753.456.002.8%
Dafabet1.873.254.805.1%
Pinnacle1.812.945.437.7%
1xBet1.813.084.967.9%
Marathonbet1.793.084.958.5%
BetVictor1.803.404.208.8%
William Hill1.833.304.009.9%
Bet3651.802.885.0010.3%
Betfair1.803.104.4010.5%
SBO1.823.083.6315.0%
Best of all books1.873.455.430.9%
Average1.813.164.748.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

UniversitarioFBC Melgar
Last 10#2Table position#41.79Points per game1.688Form pts · last 582.2Goals for · last 51.21.8Goals against · last 50.665Attack rating3525Defence rating7556Form rating4460H2H rating4055Goals model4553Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 13:01 UTC

Universitario

5W 3D 2L · goals 19:17 · per match 1.9 for, 1.7 against

11 OctHFBC Melgar2-2D
19 SepADeportivo Garcilaso0-4L
13 SepAAlianza Lima2-1W
6 SepHComerciantes Unidos2-2D
29 AugAUTC Cajamarca4-2W
23 AugHClub Deportivo Los Chankas3-0W
16 AugAFC Cajamarca3-2W
8 AugHSporting Cristal1-1D
2 AugACienciano0-2L
25 JulHCusco2-1W

FBC Melgar

4W 4D 2L · goals 15:10 · per match 1.5 for, 1.0 against

11 OctAUniversitario2-2D
20 SepHSport Boys1-1D
12 SepACusco1-0W
6 SepHADT3-0W
1 SepAAtletico Grau0-1L
23 AugHAlianza Lima1-1D
15 AugAClub Deportivo Los Chankas3-0W
9 AugHFC Cajamarca2-4L
2 AugAUCV Moquegua0-0D
26 JulHSporting Cristal2-1W

Head to head

10Universitario wins
4draws
9FBC Melgar wins

23 meetings · goals 33:34 · last 10: 6W 1D 3L for Universitario

19 Apr 2026Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónFBC Melgar2-1Universitario
20 Jan 2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies ClubsUniversitario3-2FBC Melgar
14 Sep 2025Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónFBC Melgar1-2Universitario
14 Apr 2025Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónUniversitario4-1FBC Melgar
1 Aug 2024Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónFBC Melgar1-0Universitario
18 Feb 2024Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónUniversitario2-0FBC Melgar
6 Aug 2023Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónFBC Melgar0-1Universitario
5 Mar 2023Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónUniversitario1-0FBC Melgar
16 Oct 2022Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónUniversitario1-1FBC Melgar
29 May 2022Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónFBC Melgar2-0Universitario

Primera División tablePrimera Division: Tabla Anualupdated 16 Oct 00:20 UTC

In the Primera División table, Universitario sit 2nd with 50 points from 28 games, while FBC Melgar are 4th with 47 points from 28.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Alianza Lima28178346:19+2759
2Universitario28148645:33+1250
3Deportivo Garcilaso28146839:25+1448
4FBC Melgar28138747:31+1647
5Cusco281431141:40+145
6Cienciano281351048:40+844
7Alianza Atletico28127943:36+743
8Club Deportivo Los Chankas28127936:45-943
9Sporting Cristal281251149:40+941
10Sport Boys281081030:29+138
11Sport Huancayo281151238:44-638
12Juan Pablo II College28981143:53-1035
13Atletico Grau28961326:31-533
14Comerciantes Unidos287101136:39-331
15FC Cajamarca28771441:52-1128
16ADT28681429:42-1326
17UCV Moquegua28671524:43-1925
18UTC Cajamarca28481632:51-1915

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg149%1.91X30%3.05221%4.41

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

8 Oct 00:0210 Oct 00:401 1.81X 3.162 4.73
11.81 → 1.81 0.0%X3.14 → 3.16 +0.6%24.61 → 4.73 +2.6%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Bet3652.051.755.9%
Pinnacle2.031.766.1%
Betano2.001.757.1%
1xBet1.981.767.3%
Marathonbet1.981.767.3%
Betfair2.001.737.8%
BetVictor1.961.729.2%
Best of all books2.051.765.6%
Average2.001.757.2%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.801.956.8%
William Hill1.851.858.1%
1xBet1.841.868.1%
Betano1.881.828.1%
Marathonbet1.841.848.7%
BetVictor1.851.838.7%
Bet3651.831.839.3%
Best of all books1.881.954.5%
Average1.841.858.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Universitario 45%Draw 45%FBC Melgar 10%

The statistical model rated Universitario at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and FBC Melgar at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.91 | 3.05 | 4.41, which imply roughly 52.4% for a Universitario win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera División table: Universitario are 2nd (50 pts, 45-33 goals), FBC Melgar 4th (47 pts, 47-31).

Over their last five matches, Universitario averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; FBC Melgar averaged 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Universitario or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Universitario

3-1-4-2

Coach: F. Bustos

Goalkeeper

  • 1D. Romero

Defence

  • 4A. Santamaría
  • 3W. Riveros
  • 2C. Fara

Midfield

  • 23J. Murrugarra
  • 24A. Polo
  • 17J. Concha
  • 10H. Calcaterra
  • 33C. Inga

Attack

  • 18G. Lapadula
  • 20A. Valera
Substitutes (9)
  • 29A. Corzo
  • 19É. Flores
  • 8H. Fértoli
  • 39P. Quispe
  • 15J. Requena
  • 77B. Reyna
  • 11J. Rivera
  • 25M. Vargas
  • 30Lisandro Joel Alzugaray

FBC Melgar

4-4-2

Coach: M. Rondelli

Goalkeeper

  • 21J. Cabezudo

Defence

  • 33M. Lazo
  • 23J. Escobar
  • 3L. González
  • 27N. Cabanillas

Midfield

  • 7C. Bordacahar
  • 25K. Minda
  • 24W. Tandazo
  • 8L. Guzmán

Attack

  • 10N. Quagliata
  • 9B. Cuesta
Substitutes (9)
  • 90J. Alcántar
  • 12C. Cáceda
  • 16J. Cáceres
  • 80J. D´Arrigo
  • 5A. Deneumostier
  • 36P. Nunez
  • 11J. Vidales
  • 77F. Zanelatto
  • 45Matias Zegarra

Match Statistics

UniversitarioFBC Melgar
1.32Expected Goals1.7
319Passes accurate418
10Shots insidebox8
3Shots outsidebox4
2Blocked Shots2
9Free Kicks13
4Shots on Goal6
4Goalkeeper Saves2
7Shots off Goal4
400Total passes506
13Total Shots12
1Yellow Cards3
9Corner Kicks3
0Offsides1
13Fouls9
0Red Cards0
46%Ball Possession54%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.813.164.74

Double chance

1XX212
1.161.921.29

Draw no bet

12
1.303.30

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.841.85

1st half

1X2
2.362.085.01

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.608.002.83

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.058.12
1.51.313.19
2.52.001.75
3.53.431.26
4.56.921.07
5.513.11.02
6.523.11.01
7.550.0–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.046.95
11.056.40
1.251.164.05
1.751.372.75
21.502.39
2.251.761.98
2.752.231.56
32.691.39
3.252.971.32
3.754.001.17
45.551.08
4.255.951.07
59.301.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.53.071.30
-1.252.791.39
-12.421.52
-0.752.021.71
-0.51.782.00
-0.251.522.34
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.510.01.01
-39.301.02
-2.758.101.02
-2.56.231.08
-2.255.831.09
-25.451.11
-1.753.831.21
01.263.42
+0.251.184.22
+0.51.175.00
+0.751.076.62
+11.019.80
+1.51.019.40

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
5.51.951.75

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.046.09
6.51.213.56
7.51.452.50
8.51.791.94
9.52.291.54
10.53.171.27
11.54.601.11
12.57.231.01
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
5.751.055.81
61.065.53
6.251.134.32
6.751.233.42
71.263.22
7.251.362.78
7.751.512.34
81.532.31
8.251.702.03
8.751.911.79
91.981.76
9.252.181.60
9.752.521.44
102.671.39
10.252.981.31
10.753.561.21
114.201.14
11.254.401.13
11.755.421.07
126.771.02
12.257.001.02