Santamarina vs Alvarado Odds Analysis & Prediction – Torneo Federal A (Jul 11, 2026)

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Santamarina 10%Draw 45%Alvarado 45%

The statistical model rates Santamarina at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Alvarado at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 5.07 | 2.98 | 1.75, which imply roughly 33.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Torneo Federal A table: Santamarina are 8th (12 pts, 9-15 goals), Alvarado 1st (26 pts, 19-7).

Over their last five matches, Santamarina averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Alvarado averaged 2 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Alvarado and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Santamarina vs Alvarado — model comparison

29%

Form

71%

23%

Attack

77%

33%

Defence

67%

50%

Head to head

50%

25%

Goals

75%

34.5%

Overall

65.5%

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Form & Standings

Torneo Federal A

2026/2027 Standings• Argentino A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sportivo Belgrano	16	7	7	2	+12	28
1	San Martin Formosa	14	8	3	3	+7	27
1	Cipolletti	15	6	4	5	+3	22
1	Alvarado	15	7	5	3	+12	26
2	Douglas Haig	16	8	4	4	+7	28
2	Bartolomé Mitre	14	6	5	3	+6	23
2	Argentino Monte Maíz	14	5	6	3	+4	21
2	Kimberley Mar del Plata	15	6	7	2	+6	25
3	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	16	7	4	5	+5	25
3	Sol de América	14	7	2	5	+5	23
3	Atenas	14	6	3	5	-1	21
3	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	14	6	7	1	+6	25
4	9 de Julio Rafaela	16	7	4	5	+3	25
4	Sarmiento de La Banda	14	6	3	5	0	21
4	Fundacion Amigos	14	4	7	3	+3	19
4	Villa Mitre	14	4	7	3	+3	19
5	Defensores de Belgrano VR	16	6	5	5	+3	23
5	Juventud Antoniana	14	5	4	5	+3	19
5	Huracan Las Heras	14	5	4	5	-3	19
5	Germinal de Rawson	14	4	6	4	-4	18
6	Sportivo Las Parejas	16	5	7	4	-1	22
6	Defensores de Vilelas	15	6	1	8	-4	19
6	Costa Brava	15	4	6	5	0	18
6	Sol de Mayo	14	4	5	5	-1	17
7	Independiente De Chivilcoy	16	4	6	6	-6	18
7	Boca Unidos	14	5	3	6	-2	18
7	San Martín Mendoza	14	4	5	5	-4	17
7	Guillermo Brown	14	3	5	6	-6	14
8	Atletico Escobar	16	5	3	8	-9	18
8	Tucuman Central	14	5	1	8	-3	16
8	Juventud Unida Univ.	14	3	7	4	+1	16
8	Santamarina	14	2	6	6	-6	12
9	Gimnasia Concepción	16	4	4	8	-5	16
9	Sarmiento Resistencia	15	2	6	7	-12	12
9	Deportivo Rincon	14	4	4	6	-3	16
9	Circulo Deportivo	14	1	6	7	-10	9
10	El Linqueño	16	3	4	9	-9	13