Mārupe vs Smiltene Odds Analysis & Prediction – 1. Liga (Jul 4, 2026)

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mārupe 45%Draw 45%Smiltene 10%

The statistical model rates Mārupe at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Smiltene at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.30 | 5.02 | 7.31, which imply roughly 76.9% for a Mārupe win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. Liga table: Mārupe are 7th (16 pts, 20-14 goals), Smiltene 13th (4 pts, 11-31).

Over their last five matches, Mārupe averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Smiltene averaged 0.6 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Mārupe.

Mārupe vs Smiltene — model comparison

86%

Form

14%

73%

Attack

27%

53%

Defence

47%

71%

Head to head

29%

55%

Goals

45%

70.3%

Overall

29.7%

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Form & Standings

1. Liga

2026/2027 Standings• 1 Liga

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	11	9	1	1	+29	28
2	Valmiera / BSS	11	8	2	1	+17	26
3	Riga Mariners	11	7	4	0	+11	25
4	Leevon / PPK	11	7	3	1	+8	24
5	JDFS Alberts	11	6	2	3	+9	20
6	Super Nova 2	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	Mārupe	11	5	1	5	+6	16
8	Skanste	10	4	1	5	+1	13
9	Riga FC II	11	4	1	6	-5	13
10	Rīgas FS II	11	2	2	7	-11	8
11	Tukums II	11	2	2	7	-13	8
12	JFK Ventspils	10	1	3	6	-8	6
13	Smiltene	11	0	4	7	-20	4
14	Rēzekne FA	11	1	1	9	-26	4

Betting Odds

Full time

1.30

5.02

7.31

Double chance

1.07

3.23

1.13

Both teams to score

Yes

1.65

2.11

Match goals

Over 2.5

1.39

Under 2.5

2.79

Over 1.5

1.08

Under 1.5

6.50

Over 3.5

1.98

Under 3.5

1.71

Over 4.5

3.30

Under 4.5

1.29

Over 5.5

6.50

Under 5.5

1.08

Under 0.5

17.00

Over 3

1.60

Under 3

2.20

Over 4

2.60

Under 4

1.44

Over 3.25

1.78

Under 3.25

1.87

Draw no bet

1.12

5.13

Asian handicap

Away 2.75

1.32

1st half