Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava• Virsliga, Latvia

#11.8:1.04-2FT11/10 · Bislett Stadium, Oslo1.4:1.0#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.15BTNX8.20DAF217.0B365Margin at best5.0%Books9Markets72Rating65 · 35Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 08:33 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.14	8.20	13.0	7.6%
Pinnacle	1.13	7.91	14.9	7.8%
BetVictor	1.11	8.00	17.0	8.5%
Bet365	1.12	7.50	17.0	8.5%
William Hill	1.14	7.00	15.0	8.7%
Betano	1.15	6.30	12.0	11.2%
Betfair	1.08	8.00	15.0	11.8%
1xBet	1.09	6.75	16.5	12.6%
Marathonbet	1.09	6.75	16.5	12.6%
Best of all books	1.15	8.20	17.0	5.0%
Average	1.12	7.38	15.2	9.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Rīgas FSFS Jelgava

Last 10#1Table position#72.50Points per game1.0011Form pts · last 541.8Goals for · last 51.41.0Goals against · last 51.056Attack rating4450Defence rating5056Form rating4480H2H rating2078Goals model2265Overall rating35

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 06:31 UTC

Rīgas FS

5W 3D 2L · goals 21:12 · per match 2.1 for, 1.2 against

15 Oct	H	Super Nova	4-0	W
11 Oct	H	FS Jelgava	4-2	W
20 Sep	A	Auda	1-1	D
13 Sep	A	BFC Daugavpils	2-1	W
7 Sep	H	FK Liepaja	0-0	D
3 Sep	H	Riga	2-3	L
30 Aug	A	Ogre United	3-0	W
23 Aug	H	Riga	3-3	D
16 Aug	A	Super Nova	1-0	W
13 Aug	H	FK Jablonec	1-2	L

FS Jelgava

2W 1D 7L · goals 10:15 · per match 1.0 for, 1.5 against

11 Oct	A	Rīgas FS	2-4	L
19 Sep	H	Riga	0-1	L
12 Sep	A	Grobiņa	0-0	D
5 Sep	H	Super Nova	0-1	L
29 Aug	A	Tukums	4-1	W
22 Aug	A	Ogre United	3-2	W
9 Aug	H	Auda	0-1	L
1 Aug	A	BFC Daugavpils	1-2	L
26 Jul	H	FK Liepaja	0-2	L
20 Jul	H	Rīgas FS	0-1	L

Head to head

17Rīgas FS wins

1draws

1FS Jelgava wins

19 meetings · goals 47:8 · last 10: 8W 1D 1L for Rīgas FS

20 Jul 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava0-1Rīgas FS
12 Jul 2026Cup	Cup	Rīgas FS2-0FS Jelgava
21 May 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Rīgas FS4-0FS Jelgava
8 Apr 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava0-1Rīgas FS
13 Sep 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Rīgas FS1-4FS Jelgava
12 Jul 2025Cup	Cup	FS Jelgava0-1Rīgas FS
26 Jun 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava0-1Rīgas FS
5 May 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava2-2Rīgas FS
11 Mar 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Rīgas FS1-0FS Jelgava
30 Sep 2024Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava0-2Rīgas FS

Virsliga tableVirsligaupdated 17 Oct 15:02 UTC

In the Virsliga table, Rīgas FS sit 1st with 80 points from 32 games, while FS Jelgava are 7th with 32 points from 32.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	32	25	5	2	79:24	+55	80
2	Riga	32	23	7	2	88:30	+58	76
3	Auda	32	19	7	6	52:32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43:46	-3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37:36	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31:45	-14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34:53	-19	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	25:56	-31	29
9	Tukums	32	5	9	18	44:63	-19	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33:81	-48	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg183%1.10X11%7.9126%15.2

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.14 → 1.12 -1.8%X6.50 → 7.37 +13.4%212.0 → 15.2 +26.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.38	2.84	7.7%
Bet365	1.40	2.75	7.8%
BetVictor	1.36	2.90	8.0%
Betfair	1.33	3.00	8.5%
1xBet	1.37	2.66	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.37	2.66	10.6%
Best of all books	1.40	3.00	4.8%
Average	1.37	2.80	8.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.25	1.60	6.9%
Bet365	2.20	1.62	7.2%
William Hill	2.10	1.65	8.2%
BetVictor	2.15	1.62	8.2%
1xBet	2.16	1.59	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.16	1.57	10.0%
Best of all books	2.25	1.65	5.1%
Average	2.17	1.61	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Rīgas FS 45%Draw 45%FS Jelgava 10%

The statistical model rated Rīgas FS at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and FS Jelgava at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.10 | 7.91 | 15.24, which imply roughly 90.9% for a Rīgas FS win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Virsliga table: Rīgas FS are 1st (80 pts, 79-24 goals), FS Jelgava 7th (32 pts, 34-53).

Over their last five matches, Rīgas FS averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; FS Jelgava averaged 1.4 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Rīgas FS or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.12	7.38	15.2

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.02	4.95	1.06

Draw no bet

1	2
1.03	11.1

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.17	1.61

1st half

1	X	2
1.45	3.02	11.6

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.17	19.1	4.97

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	15.2
1.5	1.09	5.88
2.5	1.37	2.80
3.5	1.94	1.77
4.5	3.14	1.30
5.5	5.20	1.11
6.5	8.50	1.05
7.5	12.0	1.01
8.5	17.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	12.0
1.75	1.10	5.10
2	1.12	4.65
2.25	1.25	3.28
2.75	1.44	2.50
3	1.55	2.22
3.25	1.75	1.94
3.75	2.16	1.59
4	2.55	1.42
4.25	2.82	1.35
4.75	3.58	1.21
5	4.70	1.12
5.25	5.00	1.10
6	8.80	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	2.32	1.53
-2.5	2.04	1.68
-2.25	1.85	1.86
-2	1.64	2.11
-1.75	1.51	2.35
-1.5	1.47	2.48

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	5.80	1.07
-4.25	5.90	1.13
-4	5.27	1.12
-3.75	3.99	1.19
-3.5	3.28	1.27
-3.25	3.01	1.32
-3	2.75	1.38
-1.25	1.30	3.14
-1	1.17	4.30
-0.75	1.14	4.73
-0.5	1.15	5.50
-0.25	1.07	8.45
0	1.02	11.9

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.38	2.70
9	1.49	2.36
9.5	1.71	1.97
10	1.88	1.86
10.5	2.09	1.68
11	2.75	1.37