Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils• Virsliga, Latvia

#100.8:1.61-2FT11/10 · Ogre0.4:0.8#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.011XBX3.90BFR21.80BTNMargin at best6.1%Books9Markets62Rating43 · 57Exp. goals L51.8

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 08:33 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.96	3.88	1.76	7.8%
Dafabet	3.80	3.80	1.80	8.2%
BetVictor	4.00	3.90	1.73	8.4%
1xBet	4.01	3.75	1.69	10.8%
Betfair	3.80	3.90	1.70	10.8%
Betano	3.65	3.55	1.80	11.1%
William Hill	3.80	3.50	1.75	12.0%
Marathonbet	3.92	3.75	1.67	12.1%
Bet365	3.70	3.80	1.70	12.2%
Best of all books	4.01	3.90	1.80	6.1%
Average	3.85	3.76	1.73	10.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Ogre UnitedBFC Daugavpils

Last 10#10Table position#50.55Points per game1.314Form pts · last 560.8Goals for · last 50.41.6Goals against · last 50.867Attack rating3333Defence rating6757Form rating430H2H rating10037Goals model6343Overall rating57

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 01:50 UTC

Ogre United

1W 2D 7L · goals 11:22 · per match 1.1 for, 2.2 against

11 Oct	H	BFC Daugavpils	1-2	L
20 Sep	H	Super Nova	1-0	W
16 Sep	A	Auda	0-1	L
11 Sep	H	FK Liepaja	2-2	D
5 Sep	A	Tukums	1-2	L
30 Aug	H	Rīgas FS	0-3	L
22 Aug	H	FS Jelgava	2-3	L
14 Aug	A	BFC Daugavpils	1-3	L
9 Aug	A	Riga	1-4	L
27 Jul	A	Grobiņa	2-2	D

BFC Daugavpils

4W 4D 2L · goals 13:9 · per match 1.3 for, 0.9 against

11 Oct	A	Ogre United	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	FK Liepaja	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	Rīgas FS	1-2	L
7 Sep	A	Riga	1-1	D
2 Sep	H	Auda	2-2	D
29 Aug	A	Grobiņa	0-1	L
22 Aug	A	Super Nova	0-0	D
14 Aug	H	Ogre United	3-1	W
8 Aug	H	Tukums	2-0	W
1 Aug	H	FS Jelgava	2-1	W

Head to head

0Ogre United wins

0draws

4BFC Daugavpils wins

4 meetings · goals 3:12 · last 4: 0W 0D 4L for Ogre United

14 Aug 2026Cup	Cup	BFC Daugavpils3-1Ogre United
19 Jul 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Ogre United0-4BFC Daugavpils
21 May 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils3-1Ogre United
7 Apr 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils2-1Ogre United

Virsliga tableVirsligaupdated 17 Oct 15:02 UTC

In the Virsliga table, Ogre United sit 10th with 18 points from 33 games, while BFC Daugavpils are 5th with 42 points from 32.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	32	25	5	2	79:24	+55	80
2	Riga	32	23	7	2	88:30	+58	76
3	Auda	32	19	7	6	52:32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43:46	-3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37:36	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31:45	-14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34:53	-19	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	25:56	-31	29
9	Tukums	32	5	9	18	44:63	-19	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33:81	-48	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg124%3.85X24%3.76252%1.73

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.33 → 3.85 +15.6%X3.60 → 3.76 +4.4%21.91 → 1.73 -9.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.57	2.35	6.2%
Pinnacle	1.53	2.39	7.2%
BetVictor	1.53	2.38	7.4%
Betfair	1.50	2.40	8.3%
Betano	1.55	2.20	10.0%
1xBet	1.48	2.33	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.48	2.33	10.5%
Best of all books	1.57	2.40	5.4%
Average	1.52	2.34	8.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
William Hill	1.55	2.30	8.0%
Betfair	1.50	2.40	8.3%
BetVictor	1.50	2.40	8.3%
1xBet	1.49	2.39	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.49	2.34	9.8%
Best of all books	1.62	2.40	3.4%
Average	1.53	2.34	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ogre United 10%Draw 45%BFC Daugavpils 45%

The statistical model rated Ogre United at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and BFC Daugavpils at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.85 | 3.76 | 1.73, which imply roughly 26.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Virsliga table: Ogre United are 10th (18 pts, 33-81 goals), BFC Daugavpils 5th (42 pts, 37-36).

Over their last five matches, Ogre United averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; BFC Daugavpils averaged 0.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or BFC Daugavpils.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.85	3.76	1.73

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.94	1.20	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
2.93	1.35

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.53	2.34

1st half

1	X	2
4.11	2.40	2.23

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.42	17.4	1.55

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	13.4
1.5	1.13	4.93
2.5	1.52	2.34
3.5	2.30	1.54
4.5	4.07	1.19
5.5	7.50	1.05
6.5	10.5	1.02
7.5	17.0	–
8.5	21.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	9.60
1.25	1.06	6.20
1.75	1.14	4.39
2	1.18	3.92
2.25	1.35	2.85
2.75	1.63	2.10
3	1.83	1.84
3.25	2.07	1.66
3.75	2.68	1.39
4	3.25	1.27
4.25	3.58	1.21
4.75	4.90	1.11
5	6.75	1.04
5.25	7.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.34	1.52
+0.5	2.00	1.73
+0.75	1.79	1.92
+1	1.57	2.26
+1.25	1.45	2.52
+1.5	1.36	2.84

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	8.90	1.01
-1.25	8.20	1.02
-1	7.53	1.05
-0.75	5.07	1.12
-0.5	3.80	1.25
-0.25	3.43	1.25
0	3.06	1.32
+1.75	1.26	3.38
+2	1.15	4.55
+2.25	1.13	4.92
+2.5	1.11	5.38
+2.75	1.06	7.10
+3	1.01	9.80
+3.5	1.04	11.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8	1.31	3.03
8.5	1.49	2.37
9	1.74	2.01
9.5	1.97	1.75
10	2.25	1.54
10.5	2.57	1.42