Super Nova vs Grobiņa• Virsliga, Latvia

#60.6:0.62-1FT10/10 · Jana Skredela stadions, Riga0.6:1.0#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.40PINX3.25DAF22.96PINMargin at best6.2%Books9Markets50Rating64 · 36Exp. goals L51.4

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 08:41 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.38	3.20	2.90	7.7%
Pinnacle	2.40	3.09	2.96	7.8%
BetVictor	2.38	3.13	2.90	8.4%
Betfair	2.38	3.10	2.75	10.6%
1xBet	2.34	3.02	2.86	10.8%
William Hill	2.38	2.90	2.90	11.0%
Betano	2.32	3.05	2.82	11.4%
Bet365	2.30	3.20	2.70	11.8%
Marathonbet	2.32	3.02	2.78	12.2%
Best of all books	2.40	3.20	2.96	6.7%
Average	2.36	3.08	2.84	10.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Super NovaGrobiņa

Last 10#6Table position#81.19Points per game0.886Form pts · last 550.6Goals for · last 50.60.6Goals against · last 51.050Attack rating5063Defence rating3858Form rating4285H2H rating1563Goals model3764Overall rating36

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 02:02 UTC

Super Nova

3W 2D 5L · goals 6:11 · per match 0.6 for, 1.1 against

15 Oct	A	Rīgas FS	0-4	L
10 Oct	H	Grobiņa	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Ogre United	0-1	L
15 Sep	H	Riga	0-1	L
10 Sep	H	Tukums	1-0	W
5 Sep	A	FS Jelgava	1-0	W
29 Aug	A	Auda	1-1	D
22 Aug	H	BFC Daugavpils	0-0	D
16 Aug	H	Rīgas FS	0-1	L
9 Aug	H	FK Liepaja	1-2	L

Grobiņa

1W 3D 6L · goals 9:22 · per match 0.9 for, 2.2 against

10 Oct	A	Super Nova	1-2	L
20 Sep	A	Tukums	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	FS Jelgava	0-0	D
6 Sep	A	Auda	0-1	L
29 Aug	H	BFC Daugavpils	1-0	W
21 Aug	A	FK Liepaja	1-3	L
17 Aug	A	Auda	2-3	L
10 Aug	A	Rīgas FS	1-6	L
2 Aug	A	Riga	0-4	L
27 Jul	H	Ogre United	2-2	D

Head to head

10Super Nova wins

4draws

0Grobiņa wins

14 meetings · goals 51:5 · last 10: 6W 4D 0L for Super Nova

20 Jul 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova2-0Grobiņa
20 May 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Grobiņa0-2Super Nova
9 Apr 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Grobiņa0-1Super Nova
18 Oct 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Grobiņa0-0Super Nova
26 Jul 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova0-0Grobiņa
26 May 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Grobiņa1-1Super Nova
10 Apr 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova1-1Grobiņa
29 Aug 20211. Liga	1. Liga	Super Nova2-1Grobiņa
8 Aug 20201. Liga	1. Liga	Super Nova2-1Grobiņa
2 Nov 20191. Liga	1. Liga	Super Nova11-0Grobiņa

Virsliga tableVirsligaupdated 17 Oct 15:02 UTC

In the Virsliga table, Super Nova sit 6th with 38 points from 32 games, while Grobiņa are 8th with 29 points from 33.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	32	25	5	2	79:24	+55	80
2	Riga	32	23	7	2	88:30	+58	76
3	Auda	32	19	7	6	52:32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43:46	-3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37:36	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31:45	-14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34:53	-19	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	25:56	-31	29
9	Tukums	32	5	9	18	44:63	-19	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33:81	-48	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg139%2.36X30%3.08232%2.84

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.32 → 2.34 +0.9%X3.37 → 3.09 -8.3%22.63 → 2.84 +8.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.17	1.67	6.0%
Bet365	2.15	1.67	6.4%
Betfair	2.10	1.65	8.2%
BetVictor	2.07	1.65	8.9%
1xBet	2.08	1.64	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.08	1.64	9.1%
Betano	2.00	1.67	9.9%
Best of all books	2.17	1.67	6.0%
Average	2.09	1.66	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.87	1.87	7.0%
Bet365	1.91	1.80	7.9%
BetVictor	1.83	1.85	8.7%
William Hill	1.83	1.85	8.7%
1xBet	1.81	1.86	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.81	1.83	9.9%
Best of all books	1.91	1.87	5.8%
Average	1.84	1.84	8.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Super Nova 45%Draw 45%Grobiņa 10%

The statistical model rated Super Nova at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Grobiņa at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.36 | 3.08 | 2.84, which imply roughly 42.4% for a Super Nova win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Virsliga table: Super Nova are 6th (38 pts, 31-45 goals), Grobiņa 8th (29 pts, 25-56).

Over their last five matches, Super Nova averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Grobiņa averaged 0.6 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Super Nova or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.36	3.08	2.84

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.35	1.49	1.30

Draw no bet

1	2
1.69	2.03

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.84	1.84

1st half

1	X	2
3.03	2.02	3.55

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.92	7.90	2.13

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.65
1.5	1.35	2.95
2.5	2.09	1.66
3.5	3.84	1.22
4.5	7.25	1.06
5.5	15.7	1.02
6.5	17.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.04	6.75
1	1.06	6.15
1.25	1.19	3.74
1.75	1.43	2.54
2	1.58	2.18
2.25	1.85	1.84
2.75	2.42	1.47
3	3.03	1.31
3.25	3.28	1.25
3.75	4.55	1.13
4	6.30	1.06
4.25	6.65	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.80	1.38
-0.5	2.35	1.55
-0.25	2.02	1.71
0	1.70	2.04
+0.25	1.49	2.41
+0.5	1.40	2.83

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.80	1.01
-1.75	6.17	1.08
-1.5	4.68	1.14
-1.25	4.25	1.17
-1	3.84	1.21
+0.75	1.26	3.38
+1	1.13	5.05
+1.25	1.11	5.52
+1.5	1.09	5.90
+1.75	1.02	8.13
+2	1.01	10.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8	1.31	3.05
8.5	1.49	2.38
9	1.64	2.07
9.5	1.86	1.82
10	2.23	1.55
10.5	2.55	1.43