Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme• Meistriliiga, Estonia

#71.4:2.62-2FTToday · Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu1.4:1.2#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.22PINX4.20BFR21.70BTNMargin at best6.3%Books10Markets72Rating44 · 56Exp. goals L53.3

Price board · 1X2captured 13 Oct 12:06 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	4.22	4.19	1.66	7.8%
Dafabet	4.10	4.00	1.70	8.2%
Betfair	4.20	4.20	1.60	10.1%
1xBet	4.08	3.98	1.64	10.6%
Betano	3.90	3.80	1.70	10.8%
William Hill	4.00	3.80	1.67	11.2%
Bet365	4.00	4.00	1.62	11.7%
Marathonbet	4.00	3.98	1.62	11.9%
SBO	3.57	3.63	1.68	15.1%
BetVictor	3.70	3.50	1.55	20.1%
Best of all books	4.22	4.20	1.70	6.3%
Average	3.98	3.91	1.64	11.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

VaprusKalju Nomme

Last 10#7Table position#41.16Points per game1.654Form pts · last 561.4Goals for · last 51.42.6Goals against · last 51.250Attack rating5032Defence rating6840Form rating6060H2H rating4029Goals model7144Overall rating56

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Oct 14:50 UTC

Vaprus

2W 2D 6L · goals 14:23 · per match 1.4 for, 2.3 against

10 Oct	H	Trans Narva	2-2	D
20 Sep	A	Flora Tallinn	2-3	L
16 Sep	A	Paide	0-2	L
12 Sep	A	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4	L
9 Sep	H	Laagri	3-2	W
5 Sep	H	Nõmme United	1-0	W
2 Sep	A	Nõmme United	2-3	L
29 Aug	A	Kuressaare	2-2	D
23 Aug	H	Flora Tallinn	1-2	L
16 Aug	A	Kalju Nomme	1-3	L

Kalju Nomme

4W 0D 6L · goals 24:13 · per match 2.4 for, 1.3 against

10 Oct	H	Laagri	0-1	L
20 Sep	A	Tammeka	3-1	W
12 Sep	H	Trans Narva	2-0	W
8 Sep	H	Nõmme United	1-2	L
5 Sep	A	Flora Tallinn	1-2	L
30 Aug	H	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-3	L
26 Aug	A	Trans Narva	0-2	L
22 Aug	A	Laagri	0-1	L
16 Aug	H	Vaprus	3-1	W
11 Aug	A	Poseidon	12-0	W

Head to head

4Vaprus wins

4draws

15Kalju Nomme wins

23 meetings · goals 23:54 · last 10: 3W 1D 6L for Vaprus

16 Aug 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Kalju Nomme3-1Vaprus
30 May 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus3-1Kalju Nomme
26 Apr 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Kalju Nomme1-2Vaprus
5 Oct 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Kalju Nomme1-0Vaprus
10 Aug 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Kalju Nomme1-2Vaprus
27 Jun 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus2-2Kalju Nomme
1 Mar 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus0-3Kalju Nomme
24 Jan 2025Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Vaprus1-3Kalju Nomme
9 Nov 2024Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Kalju Nomme2-1Vaprus
15 Sep 2024Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus0-4Kalju Nomme

Meistriliiga tableMeistriliigaupdated 13 Oct 19:01 UTC

In the Meistriliiga table, Vaprus sit 7th with 36 points from 31 games, while Kalju Nomme are 4th with 51 points from 31.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	23	6	1	82:21	+61	75
2	Flora Tallinn	30	18	1	11	59:41	+18	55
3	Paide	30	15	6	9	48:37	+11	51
4	Kalju Nomme	31	15	6	10	54:30	+24	51
5	Tammeka	30	15	2	13	41:47	-6	47
6	Laagri	31	13	2	16	43:47	-4	41
7	Vaprus	31	10	6	15	43:61	-18	36
8	Kuressaare	30	9	5	16	33:49	-16	32
9	Nõmme United	31	9	1	21	47:74	-27	28
10	Trans Narva	30	5	5	20	24:67	-43	20

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg122%3.98X23%3.91255%1.64

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.82 → 3.98 -17.4%X4.20 → 3.91 -6.9%21.55 → 1.64 +5.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Pinnacle	1.45	2.64	6.8%
Betfair	1.44	2.60	7.9%
1xBet	1.43	2.46	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.43	2.46	10.6%
BetVictor	1.33	2.20	20.6%
Best of all books	1.50	2.64	4.5%
Average	1.43	2.48	10.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.53	2.38	7.4%
Betfair	1.45	2.55	8.2%
1xBet	1.47	2.47	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.47	2.42	9.3%
William Hill	1.44	2.50	9.4%
BetVictor	1.36	2.15	20.0%
Best of all books	1.53	2.55	4.6%
Average	1.45	2.41	10.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Vaprus 10%Draw 45%Kalju Nomme 45%

The statistical model rated Vaprus at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Kalju Nomme at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.98 | 3.91 | 1.64, which imply roughly 25.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Meistriliiga table: Vaprus are 7th (36 pts, 43-61 goals), Kalju Nomme 4th (51 pts, 54-30).

Over their last five matches, Vaprus averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game; Kalju Nomme averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Kalju Nomme.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.98	3.91	1.64

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.00	1.18	1.17

Draw no bet

1	2
2.93	1.30

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.45	2.41

1st half

1	X	2
4.08	2.44	2.13

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.44	19.3	1.54

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	14.5
1.5	1.11	4.82
2.5	1.43	2.48
3.5	2.08	1.62
4.5	3.40	1.23
5.5	5.94	1.07
6.5	10.0	1.03
7.5	15.0	1.01
8.5	21.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	11.5
1.75	1.12	4.64
2	1.15	4.20
2.25	1.31	3.02
2.75	1.51	2.21
3	1.67	1.98
3.25	1.86	1.75
3.75	2.32	1.46
4	2.91	1.33
4.25	3.14	1.27
4.75	4.20	1.15
5	5.50	1.08
5.25	5.80	1.07

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.40	1.45
+0.5	2.05	1.62
+0.75	1.87	1.80
+1	1.67	2.00
+1.25	1.50	2.28
+1.5	1.43	2.61

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	7.90	1.02
-1	7.13	1.05
-0.75	4.93	1.13
-0.5	3.90	1.24
-0.25	3.46	1.24
0	3.15	1.31
+1.75	1.29	3.15
+2	1.18	4.08
+2.25	1.16	4.40
+2.5	1.14	4.80
+2.75	1.09	6.06
+3	1.02	8.20
+3.5	1.01	8.80

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
7.5	1.03	6.57
8.5	1.15	4.09
9.5	1.34	2.84
10.5	1.61	2.16
11.5	1.93	1.79
12.5	2.47	1.46
13.5	3.28	1.25
14.5	4.61	1.11
15.5	6.86	1.02

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
8	1.04	6.08
9	1.19	3.72
10	1.42	2.56
11	1.76	1.95
12	2.23	1.57
13	2.99	1.30
14	4.26	1.14
15	6.47	1.03