Vaprus vs Trans Narva• Meistriliiga, Estonia

#71.2:2.22-2FT10/10 · Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu0.8:2.0#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.52PINX3.60BFR22.56PINMargin at best6.5%Books10Markets46Rating56 · 44Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 08:39 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.50	3.50	2.55	7.8%
Pinnacle	2.52	3.44	2.56	7.8%
Betfair	2.38	3.60	2.50	9.8%
Betano	2.45	3.40	2.45	11.0%
Bet365	2.40	3.50	2.45	11.1%
William Hill	2.50	3.20	2.50	11.3%
1xBet	2.42	3.34	2.47	11.7%
Marathonbet	2.42	3.34	2.47	11.7%
SBO	2.41	3.18	2.38	15.0%
BetVictor	2.25	3.13	2.30	19.9%
Best of all books	2.52	3.60	2.56	6.5%
Average	2.43	3.36	2.46	11.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

VaprusTrans Narva

Last 10#7Table position#101.16Points per game0.674Form pts · last 531.2Goals for · last 50.82.2Goals against · last 52.060Attack rating4048Defence rating5275Form rating2529H2H rating7187Goals model1356Overall rating44

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Oct 14:50 UTC

Vaprus

2W 2D 6L · goals 14:23 · per match 1.4 for, 2.3 against

10 Oct	H	Trans Narva	2-2	D
20 Sep	A	Flora Tallinn	2-3	L
16 Sep	A	Paide	0-2	L
12 Sep	A	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4	L
9 Sep	H	Laagri	3-2	W
5 Sep	H	Nõmme United	1-0	W
2 Sep	A	Nõmme United	2-3	L
29 Aug	A	Kuressaare	2-2	D
23 Aug	H	Flora Tallinn	1-2	L
16 Aug	A	Kalju Nomme	1-3	L

Trans Narva

2W 4D 4L · goals 17:17 · per match 1.7 for, 1.7 against

10 Oct	A	Vaprus	2-2	D
20 Sep	H	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Kalju Nomme	0-2	L
8 Sep	H	Flora Tallinn	2-2	D
5 Sep	A	Kuressaare	1-3	L
30 Aug	H	Tammeka	0-2	L
26 Aug	H	Kalju Nomme	2-0	W
21 Aug	A	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4	L
16 Aug	H	Paide	1-1	D
11 Aug	H	Kompanii Marjamaa	8-0	W

Head to head

7Vaprus wins

6draws

11Trans Narva wins

24 meetings · goals 29:38 · last 10: 1W 3D 6L for Vaprus

18 Jul 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva3-1Vaprus
9 May 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus2-0Trans Narva
21 Mar 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva2-1Vaprus
15 Feb 2026Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Vaprus0-2Trans Narva
18 Oct 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva1-1Vaprus
12 Jul 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus0-0Trans Narva
11 May 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva4-2Vaprus
23 Apr 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus1-2Trans Narva
4 Mar 2025Cup	Cup	Trans Narva3-1Vaprus
27 Oct 2024Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Trans Narva1-1Vaprus

Meistriliiga tableMeistriliigaupdated 13 Oct 19:01 UTC

In the Meistriliiga table, Vaprus sit 7th with 36 points from 31 games, while Trans Narva are 10th with 20 points from 30.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	23	6	1	82:21	+61	75
2	Flora Tallinn	30	18	1	11	59:41	+18	55
3	Paide	30	15	6	9	48:37	+11	51
4	Kalju Nomme	31	15	6	10	54:30	+24	51
5	Tammeka	30	15	2	13	41:47	-6	47
6	Laagri	31	13	2	16	43:47	-4	41
7	Vaprus	31	10	6	15	43:61	-18	36
8	Kuressaare	30	9	5	16	33:49	-16	32
9	Nõmme United	31	9	1	21	47:74	-27	28
10	Trans Narva	30	5	5	20	24:67	-43	20

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg137%2.42X27%3.36236%2.46

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.14 → 2.42 +13.1%X3.60 → 3.35 -6.9%22.73 → 2.46 -9.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.62	2.25	6.2%
Pinnacle	1.60	2.25	6.9%
Betfair	1.57	2.25	8.1%
1xBet	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Betano	1.60	2.10	10.1%
BetVictor	1.49	1.89	20.0%
Best of all books	1.62	2.25	6.2%
Average	1.58	2.15	9.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Betfair	1.53	2.38	7.4%
William Hill	1.50	2.40	8.3%
1xBet	1.50	2.38	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.50	2.34	9.4%
BetVictor	1.40	2.05	20.2%
Best of all books	1.62	2.40	3.4%
Average	1.51	2.29	9.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Vaprus 45%Draw 45%Trans Narva 10%

The statistical model rated Vaprus at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Trans Narva at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.42 | 3.36 | 2.46, which imply roughly 41.3% for a Vaprus win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Meistriliiga table: Vaprus are 7th (36 pts, 43-61 goals), Trans Narva 10th (20 pts, 24-67).

Over their last five matches, Vaprus averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Trans Narva averaged 0.8 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Vaprus or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.42	3.36	2.46

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.43	1.45	1.22

Draw no bet

1	2
1.81	1.82

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.51	2.29

1st half

1	X	2
2.94	2.23	2.97

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.90	13.9	1.94

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	12.0
1.5	1.17	4.11
2.5	1.58	2.15
3.5	2.46	1.45
4.5	4.25	1.15
5.5	7.64	1.03
6.5	11.0	1.02
7.5	17.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	8.20
1.25	1.07	6.00
1.75	1.18	3.84
2	1.27	3.28
2.25	1.41	2.49
2.75	1.73	1.91
3	1.93	1.69
3.25	2.15	1.54
3.75	2.91	1.33
4	3.82	1.18
4.25	4.20	1.16
4.75	5.70	1.08
5	8.10	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.90	1.35
-0.5	2.32	1.48
-0.25	2.08	1.61
0	1.81	1.84
+0.25	1.58	2.13
+0.5	1.46	2.38

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.30	1.01
-2	8.35	1.02
-1.75	6.17	1.08
-1.5	4.70	1.14
-1.25	4.31	1.17
-1	3.86	1.20
+0.75	1.34	2.99
+1	1.19	4.03
+1.25	1.15	4.50
+1.5	1.13	4.85
+1.75	1.08	6.55
+2	1.02	8.80
+2.5	1.01	9.90