Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus• Meistriliiga, Estonia

#22.2:1.83-2FT20/09 · A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn1.2:2.0#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.45BTNX4.78PIN25.891XBMargin at best6.9%Books7Markets59Rating70 · 30Exp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Sep 20:35 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.46	4.55	5.70	8.0%
1xBet	1.42	4.30	5.90	10.6%
Betano	1.47	4.25	5.10	11.2%
Betfair	1.40	4.60	5.50	11.3%
Marathonbet	1.41	4.30	5.65	11.9%
William Hill	1.44	4.00	5.50	12.6%
Bet365	1.45	4.20	5.00	12.8%
Best of all books	1.47	4.60	5.90	6.7%
Average	1.44	4.31	5.48	11.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Flora TallinnVaprus

Last 10#2Table position#71.83Points per game1.1610Form pts · last 542.2Goals for · last 51.21.8Goals against · last 52.065Attack rating3553Defence rating4759Form rating4193H2H rating777Goals model2370Overall rating30

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Oct 22:50 UTC

Flora Tallinn

5W 1D 4L · goals 19:20 · per match 1.9 for, 2.0 against

11 Oct	A	Kuressaare	0-2	L
20 Sep	H	Vaprus	3-2	W
12 Sep	A	Nõmme United	3-2	W
8 Sep	A	Trans Narva	2-2	D
5 Sep	H	Kalju Nomme	2-1	W
2 Sep	H	Tammeka	3-2	W
30 Aug	H	Paide	1-2	L
26 Aug	A	Tammeka	1-3	L
23 Aug	A	Vaprus	2-1	W
16 Aug	H	Kuressaare	2-3	L

Vaprus

2W 2D 6L · goals 14:23 · per match 1.4 for, 2.3 against

10 Oct	H	Trans Narva	2-2	D
20 Sep	A	Flora Tallinn	2-3	L
16 Sep	A	Paide	0-2	L
12 Sep	A	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4	L
9 Sep	H	Laagri	3-2	W
5 Sep	H	Nõmme United	1-0	W
2 Sep	A	Nõmme United	2-3	L
29 Aug	A	Kuressaare	2-2	D
23 Aug	H	Flora Tallinn	1-2	L
16 Aug	A	Kalju Nomme	1-3	L

Head to head

21Flora Tallinn wins

2draws

2Vaprus wins

25 meetings · goals 69:12 · last 10: 8W 1D 1L for Flora Tallinn

23 Aug 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus1-2Flora Tallinn
16 Jun 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus1-2Flora Tallinn
12 Apr 2026Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Flora Tallinn2-0Vaprus
17 Jan 2026Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Vaprus2-2Flora Tallinn
8 Nov 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus0-3Flora Tallinn
13 Sep 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Flora Tallinn3-0Vaprus
2 May 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus0-3Flora Tallinn
8 Mar 2025Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Flora Tallinn0-1Vaprus
29 Sep 2024Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Flora Tallinn3-0Vaprus
23 Aug 2024Meistriliiga	Meistriliiga	Vaprus0-1Flora Tallinn

Meistriliiga tableMeistriliigaupdated 13 Oct 19:01 UTC

In the Meistriliiga table, Flora Tallinn sit 2nd with 55 points from 30 games, while Vaprus are 7th with 36 points from 31.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	23	6	1	82:21	+61	75
2	Flora Tallinn	30	18	1	11	59:41	+18	55
3	Paide	30	15	6	9	48:37	+11	51
4	Kalju Nomme	31	15	6	10	54:30	+24	51
5	Tammeka	30	15	2	13	41:47	-6	47
6	Laagri	31	13	2	16	43:47	-4	41
7	Vaprus	31	10	6	15	43:61	-18	36
8	Kuressaare	30	9	5	16	33:49	-16	32
9	Nõmme United	31	9	1	21	47:74	-27	28
10	Trans Narva	30	5	5	20	24:67	-43	20

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg163%1.41X20%4.41217%5.27

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betfair	1.40	2.88	6.2%
Pinnacle	1.45	2.64	6.8%
Bet365	1.44	2.62	7.6%
1xBet	1.40	2.56	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.40	2.56	10.5%
Best of all books	1.45	2.88	3.7%
Average	1.42	2.65	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.53	2.38	7.4%
William Hill	1.55	2.30	8.0%
Bet365	1.57	2.25	8.1%
1xBet	1.53	2.31	8.6%
Marathonbet	1.53	2.27	9.4%
Best of all books	1.57	2.38	5.7%
Average	1.54	2.30	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Flora Tallinn 45%Draw 45%Vaprus 10%

The statistical model rated Flora Tallinn at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Vaprus at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.41 | 4.41 | 5.27, which imply roughly 70.9% for a Flora Tallinn win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Meistriliiga table: Flora Tallinn are 2nd (55 pts, 59-41 goals), Vaprus 7th (36 pts, 43-61).

Over their last five matches, Flora Tallinn averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Vaprus averaged 1.2 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Flora Tallinn or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.44	4.31	5.48

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.10	2.45	1.16

Draw no bet

1	2
1.19	4.11

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.54	2.30

1st half

1	X	2
1.89	2.56	5.15

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.39	20.6	2.86

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	13.0
1.5	1.10	5.75
2.5	1.42	2.65
3.5	2.06	1.69
4.5	3.46	1.26
5.5	6.25	1.08
6.5	9.00	1.04
7.5	15.0	1.01
8.5	21.0	–
9.5	21.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	11.0
1.75	1.10	5.00
2	1.13	4.55
2.25	1.27	3.14
2.75	1.51	2.32
3	1.65	2.06
3.25	1.87	1.82
3.75	2.37	1.49
4	2.86	1.34
4.25	3.08	1.28
4.75	4.20	1.15
5	5.55	1.08
5.25	5.90	1.07
6	8.80	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.51	1.46
-1.5	2.19	1.62
-1.25	1.95	1.76
-1	1.72	1.99
-0.75	1.55	2.30
-0.5	1.47	2.63

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	7.30	1.03
-3.25	6.90	1.06
-3	6.50	1.07
-2.75	4.63	1.14
-2.5	3.73	1.21
-2.25	3.43	1.25
-2	3.14	1.31
-0.25	1.31	3.10
0	1.15	4.47
+0.25	1.13	4.93
+0.5	1.15	5.50
+0.75	1.06	7.20
+1	1.02	8.80
+1.5	1.01	9.70