Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela• Primera Nacional, Argentina

#51.0:0.819:30Today · Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium, Buenos Aires1.4:2.0#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.80WHX3.26PIN25.75B365Margin at best3.6%Books10Markets65Rating67 · 33Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 08:14 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.78	3.26	5.37	5.5%
Dafabet	1.80	3.15	5.00	7.3%
Bet365	1.73	3.10	5.75	7.5%
Betano	1.80	3.00	5.30	7.8%
BetVictor	1.80	3.00	5.25	7.9%
William Hill	1.80	2.90	5.00	10.0%
1xBet	1.75	2.95	5.10	10.6%
Betfair	1.75	3.00	4.75	11.5%
Marathonbet	1.67	3.04	5.30	11.6%
SBO	1.78	2.83	4.32	14.7%
Best of all books	1.80	3.26	5.75	3.6%
Average	1.77	3.02	5.11	9.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MidlandAtletico DE Rafaela

Last 10#5Table position#111.50Points per game1.317Form pts · last 531.0Goals for · last 51.40.8Goals against · last 52.042Attack rating5871Defence rating2970Form rating300H2H rating10084Goals model1667Overall rating33

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 13:33 UTC

Midland

3W 3D 4L · goals 11:12 · per match 1.1 for, 1.2 against

4 Oct	A	Agropecuario	0-0	D
27 Sep	H	Tristan Suarez	0-1	L
20 Sep	A	Club Atlético Güemes	2-0	W
13 Sep	H	Chacarita Juniors	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	San Martin S.J.	2-3	L
2 Sep	A	Colegiales	0-3	L
29 Aug	H	Nueva Chicago	2-0	W
23 Aug	A	Temperley	1-2	L
19 Aug	A	Banfield	2-2	D
14 Aug	A	Acassuso	1-1	D

Atletico DE Rafaela

3W 3D 4L · goals 11:12 · per match 1.1 for, 1.2 against

4 Oct	H	Atlanta	2-3	L
27 Sep	A	Gimnasia Y Tiro	0-1	L
19 Sep	H	San Martin Tucuman	4-2	W
13 Sep	A	Gimnasia Jujuy	1-2	L
6 Sep	A	Agropecuario	0-2	L
29 Aug	H	Tristan Suarez	2-1	W
24 Aug	A	Club Atlético Güemes	0-0	D
14 Aug	H	Defensores De Belgrano	0-0	D
8 Aug	H	Chacarita Juniors	1-0	W
1 Aug	A	San Martin S.J.	1-1	D

Head to head

0Midland wins

0draws

1Atletico DE Rafaela wins

1 meeting · goals 0:1 · last 1: 0W 0D 1L for Midland

23 May 2026Primera Nacional

Primera Nacional

Atletico DE Rafaela1-0Midland

Primera Nacional tableGroup 2updated 10 Oct 00:31 UTC

In the Primera Nacional table, Midland sit 5th with 48 points from 32 games, while Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th with 42 points from 32.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	32	15	13	4	32:15	+17	58
2	Temperley	32	15	11	6	38:26	+12	56
3	Atlanta	32	17	4	11	38:30	+8	55
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	15	9	8	48:40	+8	54
5	Midland	32	13	9	10	34:26	+8	48
6	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	13	9	10	32:28	+4	48
7	Deportivo Maipu	32	13	8	11	39:31	+8	47
8	Colegiales	32	13	7	12	32:31	+1	46
9	San Martin S.J.	32	12	9	11	34:32	+2	45
10	San Martin Tucuman	32	10	13	9	35:32	+3	43
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	32	11	9	12	27:30	-3	42
12	Quilmes	32	10	9	13	30:27	+3	39
13	Almagro	32	10	8	14	28:38	-10	38
14	Agropecuario	32	9	10	13	26:35	-9	37
15	Nueva Chicago	32	9	9	14	23:30	-7	36
16	Patronato	32	6	16	10	27:32	-5	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	32	9	6	17	24:33	-9	33
18	Club Atlético Güemes	32	5	8	19	23:54	-31	23

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg152%1.77X30%3.02218%5.11

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.84 → 1.77 -3.8%X3.03 → 3.02 -0.3%24.57 → 5.11 +11.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.78	1.44	5.4%
Bet365	3.10	1.36	5.8%
Betfair	2.75	1.40	7.8%
Betano	2.72	1.40	8.2%
BetVictor	3.00	1.33	8.5%
1xBet	2.83	1.33	10.5%
Marathonbet	2.70	1.36	10.6%
Best of all books	3.10	1.44	1.7%
Average	2.84	1.37	8.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.38	1.53	7.4%
William Hill	2.62	1.44	7.6%
Bet365	2.75	1.40	7.8%
Betano	2.42	1.50	8.0%
1xBet	2.51	1.46	8.3%
BetVictor	2.55	1.44	8.7%
Marathonbet	2.51	1.44	9.3%
Best of all books	2.75	1.53	1.7%
Average	2.53	1.46	8.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Midland 45%Draw 45%Atletico DE Rafaela 10%

The statistical model rates Midland at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Atletico DE Rafaela at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.77 | 3.02 | 5.11, which imply roughly 56.5% for a Midland win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera Nacional table: Midland are 5th (48 pts, 34-26 goals), Atletico DE Rafaela 11th (42 pts, 27-30).

Over their last five matches, Midland averaged 1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Atletico DE Rafaela averaged 1.4 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Midland or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.77	3.02	5.11

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.12	1.95	1.31

Draw no bet

1	2
1.26	3.54

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.53	1.46

1st half

1	X	2
2.52	1.85	6.06

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.58	5.70	3.28

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.11	5.82
1.5	1.59	2.25
2.5	2.84	1.37
3.5	5.98	1.10
4.5	11.7	1.03
5.5	21.8	1.01
6.5	50.0	–

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.11	5.08
1	1.14	4.38
1.25	1.39	2.77
1.75	1.78	1.93
2	2.09	1.65
2.25	2.45	1.48
2.75	3.42	1.23
3	4.93	1.11
3.25	5.40	1.09
3.75	8.35	1.02
4	8.90	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	3.46	1.26
-1.25	3.04	1.34
-1	2.59	1.45
-0.75	2.02	1.71
-0.5	1.77	2.00
-0.25	1.50	2.42

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	8.95	1.01
-2.5	8.10	1.02
-2.25	7.53	1.02
-2	6.98	1.06
-1.75	4.51	1.17
0	1.24	3.63
+0.25	1.18	4.35
+0.5	1.17	4.96
+0.75	1.06	7.00
+1	1.01	9.40
+1.5	1.01	10.5

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.07	5.41
6.5	1.25	3.32
7.5	1.52	2.34
8.5	1.93	1.80
9.5	2.50	1.46
10.5	3.44	1.23
11.5	5.20	1.08

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.10	4.88
7	1.32	2.92
7.25	1.41	2.63
7.75	1.58	2.24
8	1.69	2.07
8.25	1.79	1.91
8.75	2.03	1.70
9	2.22	1.60
9.25	2.35	1.50
10	3.12	1.28
11	4.79	1.10