Almagro vs Nueva Chicago• Primera Nacional, Argentina

1.0:1.40-1FT27/09 · Estadio Tres de Febrero, Jose Ingenieros0.4:1.0

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.54PINX2.82BTN23.52PINMargin at best3.2%Books7Markets40Rating50 · 50 levelExp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Sep 02:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.33	2.84	3.52	6.5%
Betano	2.25	2.80	3.60	7.9%
Bet365	2.20	2.80	3.60	8.9%
William Hill	2.30	2.70	3.50	9.1%
1xBet	2.22	2.71	3.50	10.5%
Betfair	2.20	2.80	3.40	10.6%
Marathonbet	2.20	2.71	3.40	11.8%
Best of all books	2.33	2.84	3.60	5.9%
Average	2.24	2.77	3.50	9.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 4 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AlmagroNueva Chicago

Last 107Form pts · last 541.0Goals for · last 50.41.4Goals against · last 51.071Attack rating2942Defence rating5856Form rating4429H2H rating7171Goals model2950Overall rating50

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

Almagro

3W 3D 4L · goals 10:13 · per match 1.0 for, 1.3 against

10 Oct	H	Chacarita Juniors	2-1	W
4 Oct	A	San Martin S.J.	2-1	W
27 Sep	H	Nueva Chicago	0-1	L
19 Sep	A	Temperley	1-3	L
12 Sep	H	Deportivo Maipu	2-2	D
6 Sep	H	Gimnasia Jujuy	1-2	L
30 Aug	A	Patronato	1-0	W
22 Aug	H	Colegiales	0-0	D
15 Aug	A	Deportivo Moron	0-2	L
9 Aug	A	Quilmes	1-1	D

Nueva Chicago

2W 1D 7L · goals 4:10 · per match 0.4 for, 1.0 against

11 Oct	A	Temperley	1-2	L
5 Oct	H	Deportivo Maipu	0-1	L
27 Sep	A	Almagro	1-0	W
21 Sep	H	Patronato	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Colegiales	0-1	L
7 Sep	H	Quilmes	1-0	W
29 Aug	A	Midland	0-2	L
26 Aug	A	San Martin S.J.	0-1	L
22 Aug	H	Atlanta	0-1	L
17 Aug	A	All Boys	0-1	L

Head to head

7Almagro wins

2draws

5Nueva Chicago wins

14 meetings · goals 17:16 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for Almagro

11 May 2026Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Nueva Chicago1-2Almagro
22 Jun 2024Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Almagro1-2Nueva Chicago
3 Feb 2024Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Nueva Chicago1-0Almagro
14 Jul 2023Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Nueva Chicago2-0Almagro
12 Mar 2023Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Almagro0-0Nueva Chicago
12 Sep 2022Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Nueva Chicago2-3Almagro
28 Oct 2018Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Nueva Chicago0-0Almagro
10 Mar 2018Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Nueva Chicago2-4Almagro
15 May 2017Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Almagro1-0Nueva Chicago
16 Oct 2016Primera Nacional	Primera Nacional	Nueva Chicago0-1Almagro

Primera Nacional tableGroup 1updated 17 Oct 04:40 UTC

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	18	8	7	37:28	+9	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	17	7	9	51:34	+17	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	16	9	8	42:29	+13	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	33	14	11	8	47:30	+17	53
5	Colon Santa Fe	33	14	11	8	39:25	+14	53
6	CA Estudiantes	33	13	9	11	31:27	+4	48
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	33	12	12	9	28:28	0	48
8	Almirante Brown	33	12	11	10	26:22	+4	47
9	Los Andes	33	9	13	11	25:24	+1	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	10	10	13	32:34	-2	40
11	Racing Cordoba	33	10	10	13	30:39	-9	40
12	Defensores De Belgrano	33	8	13	12	25:32	-7	37
13	San Telmo	33	9	10	14	28:37	-9	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	7	15	11	29:39	-10	36
15	Central Norte	33	6	16	11	21:30	-9	34
16	All Boys	33	6	16	11	18:28	-10	34
17	Acassuso	33	8	8	17	25:35	-10	32
18	San Miguel	33	6	14	13	26:39	-13	32

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg138%2.39X34%2.70228%3.28

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.24 → 2.37 +5.8%X2.77 → 2.71 -2.2%23.50 → 3.29 -6.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	3.10	1.36	5.8%
Pinnacle	3.02	1.36	6.6%
Betano	2.77	1.39	8.0%
1xBet	2.83	1.33	10.5%
Marathonbet	2.83	1.33	10.5%
Best of all books	3.10	1.39	4.2%
Average	2.91	1.35	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.50	1.50	6.7%
William Hill	2.30	1.57	7.2%
Betano	2.25	1.57	8.1%
1xBet	2.30	1.54	8.4%
Marathonbet	2.30	1.52	9.3%
Best of all books	2.50	1.57	3.7%
Average	2.33	1.54	7.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Almagro 35%Draw 35%Nueva Chicago 30%

The statistical model rated Almagro at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Nueva Chicago at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.39 | 2.70 | 3.28, which imply roughly 41.8% for a Almagro win versus the model's 35%.

Over their last five matches, Almagro averaged 1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Nueva Chicago averaged 0.4 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Almagro or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.24	2.77	3.50

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.26	1.58	1.37

Draw no bet

1	2
1.53	2.37

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.33	1.54

1st half

1	X	2
3.07	1.80	4.51

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.81	5.40	2.71

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.12	5.23
1.5	1.62	2.18
2.5	2.91	1.35
3.5	5.89	1.10
4.5	11.9	1.03
5.5	27.0	–

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.12	4.70
1	1.17	4.00
1.25	1.41	2.68
1.75	1.82	1.89
2	2.16	1.61
2.25	2.52	1.45
2.75	3.50	1.22
3	4.95	1.11
3.25	5.40	1.09
3.75	8.15	1.03
4	9.30	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.64	1.43
-0.5	2.17	1.68
-0.25	1.87	1.85
0	1.49	2.51
+0.25	1.34	3.01
+0.5	1.30	3.48

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2	9.10	1.02
-1.75	6.16	1.08
-1.5	4.57	1.15
-1.25	4.21	1.18
-1	3.59	1.26
+0.75	1.15	4.82
+1	1.07	6.85
+1.25	1.05	7.52
+1.5	1.04	8.07
+1.75	1.01	9.00