Lexington vs FC Tulsa• USL Championship, USA

#43.6:1.423:30Today · Toyota Stadium1.2:1.2#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.68DAFX3.85DAF25.23PINMargin at best4.6%Books8Markets83Rating52 · 48 levelExp. goals L53.7

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 18:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.66	3.84	5.23	5.4%
Dafabet	1.68	3.85	4.60	7.2%
Betano	1.65	3.70	4.55	9.6%
Betfair	1.65	3.75	4.40	10.0%
Bet365	1.62	3.80	4.50	10.3%
1xBet	1.64	3.65	4.50	10.6%
William Hill	1.65	3.40	4.80	10.9%
Marathonbet	1.62	3.65	4.40	11.9%
Best of all books	1.68	3.85	5.23	4.6%
Average	1.65	3.70	4.62	9.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LexingtonFC Tulsa

Last 10#4Table position#51.59Points per game1.5612Form pts · last 563.6Goals for · last 51.21.4Goals against · last 51.275Attack rating2546Defence rating5467Form rating3313H2H rating8860Goals model4052Overall rating48

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:31 UTC

Lexington

6W 0D 4L · goals 22:11 · per match 2.2 for, 1.1 against

3 Oct	H	El Paso Locomotive	3-1	W
27 Sep	A	Monterey Bay	3-2	W
19 Sep	H	Orange County SC	6-0	W
13 Sep	A	Oakland Roots	4-1	W
5 Sep	A	Sporting JAX	2-3	L
29 Aug	H	Colorado Springs	0-1	L
27 Aug	A	New Mexico United	1-2	L
22 Aug	H	Las Vegas Lights	2-0	W
16 Aug	A	Sacramento Republic	0-1	L
8 Aug	H	Phoenix Rising	1-0	W

FC Tulsa

3W 4D 3L · goals 12:9 · per match 1.2 for, 0.9 against

4 Oct	H	Sacramento Republic	1-1	D
1 Oct	H	New Mexico United	1-0	W
26 Sep	A	El Paso Locomotive	1-1	D
19 Sep	A	Brooklyn	2-2	D
13 Sep	A	Phoenix Rising	1-2	L
6 Sep	A	San Antonio	0-0	D
30 Aug	H	Rhode Island	1-0	W
23 Aug	A	Orange County SC	5-1	W
16 Aug	A	New Mexico United	0-1	L
9 Aug	H	Detroit City	0-1	L

Head to head

0Lexington wins

1draws

2FC Tulsa wins

3 meetings · goals 0:5 · last 3: 0W 1D 2L for Lexington

26 Jul 2026USL Championship	USL Championship	FC Tulsa0-0Lexington
5 Oct 2025USL Championship	USL Championship	FC Tulsa3-0Lexington
18 May 2025USL Championship	USL Championship	Lexington0-2FC Tulsa

USL Championship tableUSL Championshipupdated 9 Oct 00:21 UTC

In the USL Championship table, Lexington sit 4th with 43 points from 27 games, while FC Tulsa are 5th with 42 points from 27.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive	27	14	5	8	46:35	+11	47
2	New Mexico United	27	13	7	7	41:32	+9	46
3	Sacramento Republic	27	11	11	5	37:25	+12	44
4	Lexington	27	13	4	10	49:33	+16	43
5	FC Tulsa	27	11	9	7	32:25	+7	42
6	Colorado Springs	27	11	7	9	40:37	+3	40
7	Orange County SC	27	10	9	8	36:42	-6	39
8	San Antonio	27	9	11	7	29:29	0	38
9	Las Vegas Lights	27	10	6	11	35:38	-3	36
10	Oakland Roots	27	8	10	9	33:35	-2	34
11	Phoenix Rising	27	8	9	10	36:40	-4	33
12	Monterey Bay	27	5	6	16	29:47	-18	21

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg155%1.65X25%3.70220%4.62

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.73 → 1.65 -4.6%X3.70 → 3.70 0.0%24.04 → 4.62 +14.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.85	1.99	4.3%
Bet365	1.73	2.08	5.9%
Betano	1.75	2.00	7.1%
1xBet	1.72	1.96	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.72	1.96	9.2%
Best of all books	1.85	2.08	2.1%
Average	1.75	2.00	7.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	1.75	1.98	7.6%
Bet365	1.80	1.91	7.9%
William Hill	1.75	1.95	8.4%
1xBet	1.70	2.01	8.6%
Marathonbet	1.70	1.98	9.3%
Best of all books	1.80	2.01	5.3%
Average	1.74	1.97	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Lexington 45%Draw 45%FC Tulsa 10%

The statistical model rates Lexington at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and FC Tulsa at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.62, which imply roughly 60.6% for a Lexington win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the USL Championship table: Lexington are 4th (43 pts, 49-33 goals), FC Tulsa 5th (42 pts, 32-25).

Over their last five matches, Lexington averaged 3.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; FC Tulsa averaged 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Lexington or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.65	3.70	4.62

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.15	2.09	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.26	3.62

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.74	1.97

1st half

1	X	2
2.18	2.28	4.88

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.52	13.0	2.65

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	9.23
1.5	1.22	3.77
2.5	1.75	2.00
3.5	2.82	1.37
4.5	5.16	1.12
5.5	9.37	1.05
6.5	11.5	1.01
7.5	21.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	8.60
1.25	1.10	5.15
1.75	1.24	3.34
2	1.34	2.93
2.25	1.56	2.30
2.75	1.96	1.77
3	2.28	1.56
3.25	2.53	1.46
3.75	3.28	1.25
4	4.40	1.14
4.25	4.75	1.12
4.75	6.45	1.05
5	9.10	–

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.78	1.39
-1.25	2.48	1.49
-1	2.14	1.65
-0.75	1.84	1.88
-0.5	1.64	2.22
-0.25	1.46	2.56

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	10.0	1.01
-3	10.5	1.01
-2.75	6.86	1.06
-2.5	5.35	1.11
-2.25	4.87	1.13
-2	4.52	1.15
-1.75	3.42	1.27
0	1.25	3.52
+0.25	1.21	4.06
+0.5	1.22	4.16
+0.75	1.09	5.73
+1	1.01	9.00
+1.25	1.03	7.60
+1.5	1.02	8.90

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.02	6.73
6.5	1.12	4.46
7.5	1.36	2.80
8.5	1.69	2.07
9.5	2.11	1.66
10.5	2.63	1.39
11.5	3.67	1.20
12.5	5.45	1.07

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5.75	1.03	6.44
6	1.01	7.25
6.25	1.07	5.44
6.75	1.14	4.24
7	1.16	4.01
7.25	1.24	3.34
7.75	1.36	2.76
8	1.42	2.61
8.25	1.52	2.33
8.75	1.70	2.03
9	1.81	1.92
9.25	1.91	1.80
9.75	2.16	1.61
10	2.37	1.52
10.25	2.49	1.45
10.75	2.91	1.32
11	3.32	1.24
11.25	3.48	1.22
11.75	4.20	1.14
12	5.05	1.09
12.25	5.25	1.08