Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive• USL Championship, USA

#43.0:1.43-1FT03/10 · Toyota Stadium2.4:1.0#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.00BTNX4.021XB23.60BVCMargin at best2.7%Books7Markets48Rating45 · 55Exp. goals L53.9

Price board · 1X2captured 29 Sep 02:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.99	3.84	3.27	6.9%
Betano	2.00	3.50	3.15	10.3%
1xBet	1.92	3.55	3.30	10.6%
Betfair	1.91	3.60	3.25	10.9%
Bet365	1.90	3.50	3.30	11.5%
Marathonbet	1.90	3.55	3.22	11.9%
William Hill	1.95	3.50	3.10	12.1%
Best of all books	2.00	3.84	3.30	6.3%
Average	1.94	3.58	3.23	10.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 4 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LexingtonEl Paso Locomotive

Last 10#4Table position#11.57Points per game1.7913Form pts · last 5103.0Goals for · last 52.41.4Goals against · last 51.056Attack rating4442Defence rating5841Form rating5933H2H rating6745Goals model5545Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 15 Oct 06:10 UTC

Lexington

5W 1D 4L · goals 21:11 · per match 2.1 for, 1.1 against

9 Oct	H	FC Tulsa	0-0	D
3 Oct	H	El Paso Locomotive	3-1	W
27 Sep	A	Monterey Bay	3-2	W
19 Sep	H	Orange County SC	6-0	W
13 Sep	A	Oakland Roots	4-1	W
5 Sep	A	Sporting JAX	2-3	L
29 Aug	H	Colorado Springs	0-1	L
27 Aug	A	New Mexico United	1-2	L
22 Aug	H	Las Vegas Lights	2-0	W
16 Aug	A	Sacramento Republic	0-1	L

El Paso Locomotive

8W 1D 1L · goals 20:9 · per match 2.0 for, 0.9 against

11 Oct	H	Orange County SC	2-1	W
3 Oct	A	Lexington	1-3	L
26 Sep	H	FC Tulsa	1-1	D
20 Sep	A	Phoenix Rising	3-1	W
12 Sep	A	Louisville City	2-1	W
30 Aug	H	Loudoun United	4-1	W
27 Aug	H	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-1	W
23 Aug	A	Colorado Springs	1-0	W
16 Aug	A	San Antonio	3-0	W
9 Aug	H	Oakland Roots	1-0	W

Head to head

1Lexington wins

0draws

2El Paso Locomotive wins

3 meetings · goals 6:5 · last 3: 1W 0D 2L for Lexington

31 May 2026USL Championship	USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive1-4Lexington
11 Oct 2025USL Championship	USL Championship	Lexington1-2El Paso Locomotive
6 Apr 2025USL Championship	USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive2-1Lexington

USL Championship tableUSL Championshipupdated 15 Oct 03:01 UTC

In the USL Championship table, Lexington sit 4th with 44 points from 28 games, while El Paso Locomotive are 1st with 50 points from 28.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive	28	15	5	8	48:36	+12	50
2	New Mexico United	28	14	7	7	44:33	+11	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	11	12	5	38:26	+12	45
4	Lexington	28	13	5	10	49:33	+16	44
5	FC Tulsa	28	11	10	7	32:25	+7	43
6	Colorado Springs	28	11	8	9	41:38	+3	41
7	Orange County SC	28	10	9	9	37:44	-7	39
8	San Antonio	28	9	12	7	29:29	0	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	9	9	10	39:42	-3	36
10	Las Vegas Lights	28	10	6	12	37:41	-4	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	8	11	9	33:35	-2	35
12	Monterey Bay	28	5	6	17	30:50	-20	21

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg148%1.90X25%3.67227%3.45

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.94 → 1.90 -2.1%X3.58 → 3.67 +2.5%23.23 → 3.45 +6.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.68	2.15	6.0%
Bet365	1.67	2.15	6.4%
Betano	1.70	2.07	7.1%
1xBet	1.63	2.10	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.63	2.10	9.0%
Best of all books	1.70	2.15	5.3%
Average	1.66	2.11	7.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Betano	1.60	2.20	8.0%
William Hill	1.57	2.25	8.1%
1xBet	1.56	2.25	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.56	2.21	9.4%
Best of all books	1.62	2.25	6.2%
Average	1.58	2.22	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Lexington 10%Draw 45%El Paso Locomotive 45%

The statistical model rated Lexington at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and El Paso Locomotive at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.90 | 3.67 | 3.45, which imply roughly 27.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the USL Championship table: Lexington are 4th (44 pts, 49-33 goals), El Paso Locomotive 1st (50 pts, 48-36).

Over their last five matches, Lexington averaged 3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; El Paso Locomotive averaged 2.4 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or El Paso Locomotive.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.94	3.58	3.23

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.29	1.74	1.22

Draw no bet

1	2
1.50	2.46

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.58	2.22

1st half

1	X	2
2.49	2.29	3.73

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.67	14.1	2.24

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	11.2
1.5	1.19	4.07
2.5	1.66	2.11
3.5	2.60	1.42
4.5	4.61	1.15
5.5	8.25	1.04
6.5	11.3	1.01
7.5	17.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	8.90
1.25	1.08	5.70
1.75	1.21	3.58
2	1.26	3.20
2.25	1.47	2.47
2.75	1.82	1.88
3	2.08	1.65
3.25	2.35	1.51
3.75	3.05	1.28
4	3.98	1.17
4.25	4.34	1.14
4.75	5.90	1.07
5	8.30	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.74	1.39
-0.75	2.24	1.58
-0.5	1.98	1.80
-0.25	1.73	2.01
0	1.49	2.48
+0.25	1.38	2.82

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.07	1.06
-2.25	6.40	1.12
-2	6.17	1.08
-1.75	4.35	1.16
-1.5	3.49	1.26
-1.25	3.13	1.31
+0.5	1.31	3.35
+0.75	1.19	4.04
+1	1.09	5.98
+1.25	1.07	6.43
+1.5	1.04	6.75
+1.75	1.01	9.00