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Independiente vs Boca Juniors• Liga Profesional Argentina, Argentina

1.0:1.40-1FT25/10 · Libertadores de America, Buenos Aires2.4:0.8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.95BTNX3.25BTN22.20PINMargin at best1.5%Books10Markets81Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Oct 16:02 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano3.953.252.152.6%
Pinnacle3.943.082.203.3%
1xBet3.883.082.125.4%
Bet3653.903.102.105.5%
Dafabet3.703.102.087.4%
Marathonbet3.803.022.087.5%
Betfair3.603.102.107.7%
BetVictor3.703.102.058.1%
William Hill3.752.902.108.8%
SBO3.392.902.1211.2%
Best of all books3.953.252.201.5%
Average3.763.062.116.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

IndependienteBoca Juniors
Last 106Form pts · last 5101.0Goals for · last 52.41.4Goals against · last 50.829Attack rating7136Defence rating6432Form rating6850H2H rating5036Goals model6437Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 25 Oct 00:10 UTC

Independiente

3W 4D 3L · goals 9:15 · per match 0.9 for, 1.5 against

18 OctARacing Club1-1D
12 OctATalleres Cordoba0-0D
2 OctHInstituto Cordoba1-4L
19 SepAUnion Santa Fe2-1W
13 SepHSan Lorenzo1-1D
6 SepACentral Cordoba de Santiago1-0W
30 AugHGimnasia M.0-3L
22 AugHIndepend. Rivadavia0-0D
17 AugALanus3-1W
12 AugAAtletico Tucuman0-4L

Boca Juniors

7W 2D 1L · goals 20:9 · per match 2.0 for, 0.9 against

21 OctAVasco DA Gama3-1W
17 OctHTalleres Cordoba2-1W
14 OctHVasco DA Gama0-1L
9 OctAInstituto Cordoba2-2D
3 OctHUnion Santa Fe3-0W
27 SepARacing Club3-2W
20 SepASan Lorenzo2-0W
16 SepASao Paulo1-1D
12 SepHCentral Cordoba de Santiago3-1W
9 SepHSao Paulo1-0W

Head to head

3Independiente wins
8draws
4Boca Juniors wins

15 meetings · goals 11:15 · last 10: 2W 6D 2L for Independiente

11 Apr 2026Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors1-1Independiente
20 May 2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors0-1Independiente
14 Dec 2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors0-0Independiente
29 Jul 2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente0-2Boca Juniors
8 Jan 2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies ClubsBoca Juniors0-0Independiente
23 Oct 2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors2-2Independiente
27 Feb 2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente2-2Boca Juniors
25 Nov 2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente1-0Boca Juniors
29 Mar 2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente1-1Boca Juniors
20 Dec 2020Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente1-2Boca Juniors

Liga Profesional Argentina tableApertura - Group Bupdated 26 Oct 00:01 UTC

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Independ. Rivadavia16104229:15+1434
2River Plate1692522:12+1029
3Argentinos JRS1685317:13+429
4Rosario Central1684420:16+428
5Belgrano Cordoba1675417:13+426
6Gimnasia L.P.1682619:19026
7Huracan1657417:13+422
8Racing Club1656517:15+221
9Barracas Central1656515:15021
10Tigre1648418:15+320
11Sarmiento Junin1661913:20-719
12Banfield1653817:19-218
13Atletico Tucuman1635815:20-514
14Aldosivi160886:19-138
15Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1612135:24-195

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg125%3.76X31%3.06244%2.11

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

22 Oct 00:0125 Oct 16:501 3.76X 3.062 2.11
13.66 → 3.76 +2.7%X3.12 → 3.06 -1.9%22.07 → 2.11 +1.9%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Betano2.551.553.7%
Pinnacle2.551.553.7%
1xBet2.541.525.2%
Betfair2.451.536.2%
Bet3652.401.537.0%
Marathonbet2.501.497.1%
BetVictor2.361.509.0%
Best of all books2.551.553.7%
Average2.481.526.0%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair2.101.735.4%
Bet3652.101.677.5%
Betano2.101.677.5%
William Hill2.051.707.6%
1xBet2.111.658.0%
BetVictor2.101.658.2%
Marathonbet2.111.638.7%
Best of all books2.111.735.2%
Average2.101.677.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Independiente 10%Draw 45%Boca Juniors 45%

The statistical model rated Independiente at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Boca Juniors at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.76 | 3.06 | 2.11, which imply roughly 32.7% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Independiente averaged 1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Boca Juniors averaged 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Boca Juniors.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Independiente

4-3-3

Coach: Jádson Viera

Goalkeeper

  • 77S. Mele

Defence

  • 4S. Arias
  • 35J. Arrayago
  • 36S. Valdez
  • 5N. Banegas

Midfield

  • 16M. Perez
  • 23I. Marcone
  • 8M. Meza

Attack

  • 7S. Montiel
  • 6E. Ávila
  • 24J. Palais
Substitutes (12)
  • 10L. Cabral
  • 2F. Calderón
  • 13J. Fedorco
  • 29L. Godoy
  • 32D. Martínez
  • 14Lautaro Millán
  • 9I. Morales
  • 30Tomás Parmo
  • 33R. Rey
  • 34F. Tempone
  • 22F. Zabala
  • 19M. Abaldo

Boca Juniors

4-3-3

Coach: R. Arruabarrena

Goalkeeper

  • 1Á. Montero

Defence

  • 17L. Lozano
  • 2L. Di Lollo
  • 42F. Herrera
  • 27M. Braida

Midfield

  • 25S. Ascacíbar
  • 5L. Paredes
  • 18M. Delgado

Attack

  • 19L. Flores
  • 16M. Merentiel
  • 20A. Velasco
Substitutes (12)
  • 6R. Battaglia
  • 15W. Alarcón
  • 12L. Brey
  • 32A. Costa
  • 4N. Figal
  • 9M. Giménez
  • 24D. Gorosito
  • 7C. Palacios
  • 26Marco Pellegrino
  • 53Joaquín Ruíz
  • 13E. Valencia
  • 22S. Villa

Match Statistics

IndependienteBoca Juniors
1.68Expected Goals1.62
226Passes accurate525
14Shots insidebox7
9Shots outsidebox3
2Blocked Shots2
17Free Kicks13
5Shots on Goal4
3Goalkeeper Saves5
16Shots off Goal4
309Total passes602
23Total Shots10
3Yellow Cards4
4Corner Kicks3
0Offsides2
14Fouls17
0Red Cards0
34%Ball Possession66%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
3.763.062.11

Double chance

1XX212
1.701.251.34

Draw no bet

12
2.551.45

Both teams to score

YesNo
2.101.67

1st half

1X2
4.421.962.78

2nd half

1X2
3.962.202.48

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 16.3315.131.6
HT X7.674.234.92
HT 245.214.93.35

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.576.381.79

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.086.90
1.51.472.56
2.52.481.52
3.54.751.16
4.59.751.03
5.518.71.01
6.551.0–
12 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.085.65
11.115.02
1.251.293.10
1.751.612.22
21.861.91
2.252.171.65
2.752.811.37
34.051.19
3.254.321.15
3.756.001.06
49.451.01
4.257.801.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.253.121.33
02.641.47
+0.252.011.77
+0.51.732.11
+0.751.512.47
+11.303.36
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-1.58.721.02
-1.258.401.01
-18.451.02
-0.754.871.15
-0.53.681.27
+1.251.243.78
+1.51.194.26
+1.751.115.54
+21.028.53
+2.251.018.65
+2.51.029.10

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
3.51.273.50
4.51.552.35
5.52.101.69
6.52.721.42
7.53.851.23

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
3.51.0211.8
4.51.049.25
5.51.085.62
6.51.203.71
7.51.412.62
8.51.751.99
9.52.241.58
10.52.981.32
11.54.051.17
12.55.251.10
13.57.801.06
14.510.31.03
15.512.01.02
15 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.104.42
71.243.05
7.251.312.92
7.751.462.45
81.542.30
8.251.662.13
8.751.851.84
91.981.78
9.252.111.61
9.752.441.45
102.611.42
10.252.881.32
113.371.19
124.521.09
135.721.04

Next Liga Profesional Argentina matches

26 OctUnion Santa Fe – Estudiantes L.P.
27 OctInstituto Cordoba – Deportivo Riestra
27 OctArgentinos JRS – Independ. Rivadavia

All Liga Profesional Argentina fixtures and the table

Latest Liga Profesional Argentina results

25 OctRiver Plate 1-0 Racing Club
25 OctAldosivi 1-0 Belgrano Cordoba
25 OctRosario Central 2-0 Huracan
24 OctSan Lorenzo 0-0 Newells Old Boys
24 OctTalleres Cordoba 1-2 Defensa Y Justicia
24 OctBanfield 1-1 Lanus