UCD vs Longford Town• First Division, Ireland

#31.8:2.21-1FTToday · UCD Bowl, Dublin1.2:1.4#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.76DAFX4.24PIN24.37PINMargin at best3.3%Books10Markets85Rating57 · 43Exp. goals L53.3

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 16:03 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.72	4.21	4.23	5.5%
Dafabet	1.76	3.95	4.00	7.1%
Betano	1.70	3.90	4.05	9.2%
1xBet	1.64	3.94	4.18	10.3%
Betfair	1.65	4.00	4.00	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.62	3.94	4.10	11.5%
William Hill	1.67	3.75	4.00	11.5%
Bet365	1.67	3.80	3.90	11.8%
SBO	1.70	3.54	3.61	14.8%
BetVictor	1.60	3.40	3.50	20.5%
Best of all books	1.76	4.21	4.23	4.2%
Average	1.67	3.84	3.96	11.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

UCDLongford Town

Last 10#3Table position#51.53Points per game1.415Form pts · last 571.8Goals for · last 51.22.2Goals against · last 51.460Attack rating4039Defence rating6142Form rating5871H2H rating2960Goals model4057Overall rating43

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:31 UTC

UCD

3W 3D 4L · goals 21:21 · per match 2.1 for, 2.1 against

2 Oct	A	Treaty United	4-0	W
25 Sep	H	Bray Wanderers	1-3	L
18 Sep	A	Cork City	1-5	L
11 Sep	H	Athlone Town	2-2	D
4 Sep	A	Cobh Ramblers	1-1	D
28 Aug	H	Finn Harps	5-4	W
21 Aug	A	Kerry	1-1	D
14 Aug	H	Derry City	1-2	L
7 Aug	H	Wexford	4-1	W
3 Aug	H	Treaty United	1-2	L

Longford Town

4W 2D 4L · goals 18:17 · per match 1.8 for, 1.7 against

2 Oct	A	Wexford	3-3	D
26 Sep	H	Cork City	2-1	W
18 Sep	A	Finn Harps	1-0	W
12 Sep	H	Treaty United	0-2	L
5 Sep	H	Kerry	0-1	L
28 Aug	A	Cobh Ramblers	2-2	D
22 Aug	H	Bray Wanderers	4-2	W
16 Aug	A	Bohemians	0-4	L
7 Aug	A	Athlone Town	1-2	L
3 Aug	H	Finn Harps	5-0	W

Head to head

8UCD wins

4draws

3Longford Town wins

15 meetings · goals 21:15 · last 10: 6W 3D 1L for UCD

4 Jul 2026First Division	First Division	Longford Town2-1UCD
1 May 2026First Division	First Division	UCD2-0Longford Town
7 Mar 2026First Division	First Division	Longford Town0-0UCD
12 Sep 2025First Division	First Division	UCD2-1Longford Town
28 Jun 2025First Division	First Division	Longford Town0-2UCD
9 May 2025First Division	First Division	UCD1-1Longford Town
12 Apr 2025First Division	First Division	Longford Town0-1UCD
18 Oct 2024First Division	First Division	UCD2-2Longford Town
27 Jul 2024First Division	First Division	Longford Town1-2UCD
3 May 2024First Division	First Division	UCD1-0Longford Town

First Division tableFirst Divisionupdated 9 Oct 20:40 UTC

In the First Division table, UCD sit 3rd with 52 points from 34 games, while Longford Town are 5th with 48 points from 34.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Cork City	34	22	5	7	71:34	+37	71
2	Bray Wanderers	34	15	8	11	65:49	+16	53
3	UCD	34	15	7	12	61:48	+13	52
4	Cobh Ramblers	34	14	7	13	46:50	-4	49
5	Longford Town	34	13	9	12	47:45	+2	48
6	Kerry	34	13	9	12	42:40	+2	48
7	Athlone Town	34	13	9	12	41:40	+1	48
8	Wexford	34	11	8	15	40:51	-11	41
9	Treaty United	34	9	9	16	33:52	-19	36
10	Finn Harps	34	6	7	21	31:68	-37	25

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg154%1.67X23%3.84223%3.96

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.69 → 1.67 -1.2%X3.96 → 3.84 -3.0%24.10 → 3.97 -3.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.48	2.63	5.6%
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Betfair	1.50	2.40	8.3%
Betano	1.50	2.37	8.9%
1xBet	1.46	2.38	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.46	2.38	10.5%
BetVictor	1.40	2.06	20.0%
Best of all books	1.50	2.63	4.7%
Average	1.47	2.39	9.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.53	2.38	7.4%
Betfair	1.50	2.40	8.3%
William Hill	1.50	2.40	8.3%
1xBet	1.50	2.38	8.7%
Betano	1.52	2.32	8.9%
Marathonbet	1.50	2.34	9.4%
BetVictor	1.36	2.15	20.0%
Best of all books	1.53	2.40	7.0%
Average	1.49	2.34	10.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

UCD 45%Draw 45%Longford Town 10%

The statistical model rated UCD at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Longford Town at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.67 | 3.84 | 3.96, which imply roughly 59.9% for a UCD win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the First Division table: UCD are 3rd (52 pts, 61-48 goals), Longford Town 5th (48 pts, 47-45).

Over their last five matches, UCD averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Longford Town averaged 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : UCD or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.67	3.84	3.96

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.17	2.04	1.16

Draw no bet

1	2
1.30	2.96

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.49	2.34

1st half

1	X	2
2.15	2.41	4.19

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.54	19.3	2.44

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	12.8
1.5	1.12	4.81
2.5	1.47	2.39
3.5	2.18	1.57
4.5	3.66	1.21
5.5	6.49	1.07
6.5	10.0	1.03
7.5	15.0	1.01
8.5	21.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	11.0
1.25	1.05	6.55
1.75	1.13	4.56
2	1.16	4.10
2.25	1.31	2.92
2.75	1.56	2.15
3	1.74	1.92
3.25	1.97	1.70
3.75	2.45	1.42
4	3.14	1.27
4.25	3.50	1.22
4.75	4.80	1.12
5	6.55	1.05
5.25	6.95	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.75	1.39
-1.25	2.38	1.47
-1	2.12	1.60
-0.75	1.85	1.83
-0.5	1.67	2.06
-0.25	1.46	2.38

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	9.40	1.02
-3	8.50	1.03
-2.75	6.70	1.06
-2.5	5.22	1.12
-2.25	4.75	1.14
-2	4.40	1.16
-1.75	3.34	1.28
0	1.31	3.17
+0.25	1.24	3.62
+0.5	1.24	3.90
+0.75	1.12	5.17
+1	1.02	8.20
+1.25	1.03	7.49

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.09	5.04
7.5	1.26	3.21
8.5	1.51	2.33
9.5	1.92	1.82
10.5	2.41	1.48
11.5	3.27	1.25
12.5	4.74	1.10
13.5	7.15	1.01

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.10	4.80
7	1.12	4.57
7.25	1.19	3.72
7.75	1.29	3.04
8	1.33	2.87
8.25	1.43	2.54
8.75	1.59	2.19
9	1.67	2.09
9.25	1.78	1.92
9.75	2.01	1.72
10	2.16	1.63
10.25	2.28	1.54
10.75	2.63	1.40
11	2.95	1.31
11.25	3.11	1.28
11.75	3.70	1.19
12	4.36	1.13
12.25	4.55	1.12
12.75	5.57	1.06
13	6.91	1.02
13.25	6.93	1.02