Bahia vs Flamengo• Serie A, Brazil

#51.4:1.221:3018/10 · Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador1.6:0.8#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.50B365X3.801XB22.10B365Margin at best2.5%Books6Markets73Rating34 · 67Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 20:04 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	3.32	3.80	2.10	4.1%
Bet365	3.50	3.50	2.10	4.8%
Pinnacle	3.26	3.78	2.09	5.0%
Marathonbet	3.22	3.68	2.03	7.5%
BetVictor	3.20	3.60	2.05	7.8%
William Hill	3.10	3.50	2.05	9.6%
Best of all books	3.50	3.80	2.10	2.5%
Average	3.27	3.64	2.07	6.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BahiaFlamengo

Last 10#5Table position#11.63Points per game2.139Form pts · last 591.4Goals for · last 51.61.2Goals against · last 50.847Attack rating5340Defence rating6041Form rating5920H2H rating8039Goals model6134Overall rating67

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 19:02 UTC

Bahia

5W 3D 2L · goals 15:11 · per match 1.5 for, 1.1 against

11 Oct	H	Mirassol	1-0	W
9 Oct	A	Palmeiras	0-1	L
20 Sep	A	Atletico Paranaense	1-2	L
14 Sep	H	Remo	2-1	W
5 Sep	A	RB Bragantino	3-2	W
30 Aug	H	Internacional	3-2	W
23 Aug	A	Vitoria	2-0	W
16 Aug	A	Chapecoense-sc	3-3	D
9 Aug	H	Vasco DA Gama	0-0	D
30 Jul	A	Fluminense	0-0	D

Flamengo

7W 3D 0L · goals 16:5 · per match 1.6 for, 0.5 against

16 Oct	A	Estudiantes L.P.	0-0	D
11 Oct	H	Fluminense	1-0	W
8 Oct	A	Santos	2-2	D
20 Sep	H	RB Bragantino	2-1	W
18 Sep	H	Independiente del Valle	1-1	D
13 Sep	H	Corinthians	2-1	W
11 Sep	A	Independiente del Valle	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Remo	1-0	W
2 Sep	H	Mirassol	2-0	W
30 Aug	H	Botafogo	3-0	W

Head to head

4Bahia wins

4draws

18Flamengo wins

26 meetings · goals 26:50 · last 10: 1W 0D 9L for Bahia

19 Apr 2026Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo2-0Bahia
5 Oct 2025Serie A	Serie A	Bahia1-0Flamengo
11 May 2025Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo1-0Bahia
5 Oct 2024Serie A	Serie A	Bahia0-2Flamengo
13 Sep 2024Copa Do Brasil	Copa Do Brasil	Flamengo1-0Bahia
29 Aug 2024Copa Do Brasil	Copa Do Brasil	Bahia0-1Flamengo
20 Jun 2024Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo2-1Bahia
30 Sep 2023Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo1-0Bahia
13 May 2023Serie A	Serie A	Bahia2-3Flamengo
11 Nov 2021Serie A	Serie A	Flamengo3-0Bahia

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 16 Oct 03:50 UTC

In the Serie A table, Bahia sit 5th with 49 points from 30 games, while Flamengo are 1st with 64 points from 30.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58:25	+33	64
2	Palmeiras	30	18	9	3	52:22	+30	63
3	Atletico Paranaense	30	15	8	7	49:35	+14	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48:37	+11	51
5	Bahia	30	13	10	7	44:36	+8	49
6	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46:44	+2	48
7	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	41:35	+6	47
8	Santos	30	11	9	10	46:45	+1	42
9	RB Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38:35	+3	40
10	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
11	Coritiba	30	10	9	11	38:48	-10	39
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36
13	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	43:48	-5	36
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35
15	Mirassol	30	8	9	13	34:44	-10	33
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31:38	-7	32
17	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33:38	-5	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32:40	-8	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33:48	-15	25
20	Chapecoense-sc	29	3	9	17	30:61	-31	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg129%3.27X26%3.64245%2.07

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.33 → 3.27 -1.8%X3.64 → 3.64 0.0%22.04 → 2.07 +1.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.70	2.21	4.1%
Pinnacle	1.65	2.28	4.5%
Bet365	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Marathonbet	1.65	2.15	7.1%
BetVictor	1.62	2.12	8.9%
Best of all books	1.70	2.28	2.7%
Average	1.65	2.19	6.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.53	2.38	7.4%
1xBet	1.55	2.30	8.0%
William Hill	1.55	2.30	8.0%
Marathonbet	1.55	2.26	8.8%
BetVictor	1.53	2.30	8.8%
Best of all books	1.55	2.38	6.5%
Average	1.54	2.31	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Bahia 10%Draw 45%Flamengo 45%

The statistical model rates Bahia at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Flamengo at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.27 | 3.64 | 2.07, which imply roughly 27.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Bahia are 5th (49 pts, 44-36 goals), Flamengo 1st (64 pts, 58-25).

Over their last five matches, Bahia averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Flamengo averaged 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Flamengo.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.27	3.64	2.07

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.72	1.31	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
2.43	1.51

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.54	2.31

1st half

1	X	2
3.66	2.32	2.57

2nd half

1	X	2
3.33	2.58	2.36

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.13	14.2	23.7
HT X	7.70	5.93	5.40
HT 2	30.7	14.0	3.12

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.21	14.6	1.72

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	12.7
1.5	1.18	4.41
2.5	1.65	2.19
3.5	2.58	1.45
4.5	4.67	1.16
5.5	9.28	1.05
6.5	19.0	1.02
7.5	34.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.20
1.25	1.07	5.96
1.75	1.19	3.79
2	1.25	3.34
2.25	1.47	2.59
2.75	1.80	1.96
3	2.01	1.70
3.25	2.28	1.55
3.75	3.05	1.29
4	3.98	1.17
4.25	4.34	1.14
4.75	5.95	1.07
5	8.50	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.81	1.40
0	2.42	1.54
+0.25	1.96	1.77
+0.5	1.73	2.05
+0.75	1.53	2.33
+1	1.35	2.95

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	8.85	1.01
-1.5	6.83	1.06
-1.25	6.30	1.08
-1	5.83	1.09
-0.75	4.01	1.21
-0.5	3.26	1.34
+1.25	1.29	3.32
+1.5	1.23	3.62
+1.75	1.14	4.65
+2	1.06	6.90
+2.5	1.02	7.80

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
5.5	2.00	1.73

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.07	4.97
7.5	1.14	4.40
8.5	1.30	2.97
9.5	1.58	2.19
10.5	1.98	1.76
11.5	2.46	1.46
12.5	3.28	1.25
13.5	4.65	1.12
14.5	4.95	1.07

15 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.08	4.75
8	1.19	3.39
8.75	1.33	2.83
9	1.43	2.55
9.25	1.46	2.42
9.75	1.62	2.10
10	1.81	1.97
10.25	1.83	1.85
10.75	2.06	1.66
11	2.26	1.54
11.25	2.33	1.49
11.75	2.70	1.36
12	2.78	1.29
13	3.69	1.16
14	4.79	1.08