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Sao Paulo vs Vitoria• Serie A, Brazil

#100.8:1.22-1FT11/10 · Morumbi, Sao Paulo1.8:1.4#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.70BTNX3.95DAF26.00B365Margin at best0.8%Books10Markets96Rating55 · 45Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 20:05 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.673.706.302.8%
Pinnacle1.673.865.593.7%
1xBet1.643.905.674.3%
Dafabet1.683.805.404.4%
Bet3651.623.706.005.4%
BetVictor1.623.805.506.2%
Marathonbet1.593.785.507.5%
Betfair1.623.805.008.0%
William Hill1.623.605.009.5%
SBO1.643.504.7510.6%
Best of all books1.683.906.301.0%
Average1.643.745.476.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Sao PauloVitoria
Last 10#10Table position#121.30Points per game1.207Form pts · last 570.8Goals for · last 51.81.2Goals against · last 51.431Attack rating6954Defence rating4646Form rating5460H2H rating4080Goals model2055Overall rating45

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 12:40 UTC

Sao Paulo

4W 1D 5L · goals 9:11 · per match 0.9 for, 1.1 against

11 OctHVitoria2-1W
8 OctACruzeiro0-2L
2 OctHSantos1-2L
20 SepHInternacional1-0W
16 SepHBoca Juniors1-1D
12 SepAPalmeiras0-2L
9 SepABoca Juniors0-1L
5 SepHAtletico-MG2-0W
29 AugHRB Bragantino2-1W
23 AugAChapecoense-sc0-1L

Vitoria

3W 1D 6L · goals 11:14 · per match 1.1 for, 1.4 against

11 OctASao Paulo1-2L
7 OctHChapecoense-sc4-0W
20 SepHCruzeiro1-3L
13 SepAMirassol2-2D
7 SepHGremio1-0W
3 SepHVasco DA Gama0-2L
29 AugAAtletico-MG1-2L
27 AugAVasco DA Gama0-1L
23 AugHBahia0-2L
16 AugHBotafogo1-0W

Head to head

12Sao Paulo wins
0draws
5Vitoria wins

17 meetings · goals 31:18 · last 10: 7W 0D 3L for Sao Paulo

11 Apr 2026Serie ASerie AVitoria2-0Sao Paulo
7 Dec 2025Serie ASerie AVitoria1-0Sao Paulo
9 Aug 2025Serie ASerie ASao Paulo2-0Vitoria
25 Aug 2024Serie ASerie ASao Paulo2-1Vitoria
5 May 2024Serie ASerie AVitoria1-3Sao Paulo
26 Oct 2018Serie ASerie AVitoria0-1Sao Paulo
13 Jun 2018Serie ASerie ASao Paulo3-0Vitoria
17 Sep 2017Serie ASerie AVitoria1-2Sao Paulo
8 Jun 2017Serie ASerie ASao Paulo2-0Vitoria
25 Sep 2016Serie ASerie AVitoria2-0Sao Paulo

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 16 Oct 03:50 UTC

In the Serie A table, Sao Paulo sit 10th with 39 points from 30 games, while Vitoria are 12th with 36 points from 30.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Flamengo30197458:25+3364
2Palmeiras30189352:22+3063
3Atletico Paranaense30158749:35+1453
4Fluminense30149748:37+1151
5Bahia301310744:36+849
6Cruzeiro301461046:44+248
7Atletico-MG30138941:35+647
8Santos301191046:45+142
9RB Bragantino301171238:35+340
10Sao Paulo301161335:35039
11Coritiba301091138:48-1039
12Vitoria301061433:44-1136
13Botafogo30991243:48-536
14Vasco DA Gama29981236:42-635
15Mirassol30891334:44-1033
16Corinthians30881431:38-732
17Internacional307111233:38-532
18Gremio307101332:40-831
19Remo305101533:48-1525
20Chapecoense-sc29391730:61-3118

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg154%1.73X27%3.48218%5.11

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

8 Oct 00:0210 Oct 08:201 1.63X 3.772 5.42
11.62 → 1.63 +0.6%X3.78 → 3.77 -0.3%25.42 → 5.42 0.0%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle2.071.833.0%
Betano1.981.874.0%
1xBet1.981.864.3%
SBO2.041.804.6%
Bet3652.001.805.6%
Marathonbet1.931.817.1%
Betfair1.901.808.2%
BetVictor1.921.759.2%
Best of all books2.071.871.8%
Average1.981.825.7%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.901.876.1%
William Hill1.951.806.8%
Bet3652.001.757.1%
Betano1.881.857.2%
1xBet1.921.797.9%
BetVictor1.931.788.0%
Marathonbet1.921.778.6%
Best of all books2.001.873.5%
Average1.931.807.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sao Paulo 45%Draw 45%Vitoria 10%

The statistical model rated Sao Paulo at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Vitoria at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.73 | 3.48 | 5.11, which imply roughly 57.8% for a Sao Paulo win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Sao Paulo are 10th (39 pts, 35-35 goals), Vitoria 12th (36 pts, 33-44).

Over their last five matches, Sao Paulo averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Vitoria averaged 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Sao Paulo or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Sao Paulo

3-4-2-1

Coach: Dorival Júnior

Goalkeeper

  • 23Rafael

Defence

  • 28Newton
  • 5R. Arboleda
  • 35Sabino

Midfield

  • 19Lucas Ramon
  • 16D. Bobadilla
  • 48D. Ferreira
  • 12Iago
  • 37Artur
  • 43G. Santana

Attack

  • 9J. Calleri
Substitutes (12)
  • 31Carlos Coronel
  • 32Pedro Lima
  • 46Pedro Ferreira
  • 29Pablo Maia
  • 45Lucca Marques Alencar
  • 18Wendell
  • 17André Silva
  • 7Lucas Moura
  • 49Ryan Francisco
  • 27Victor Sá
  • 8Marcos Antônio
  • 2R. Tolói

Vitoria

4-1-4-1

Coach: Jair Ventura

Goalkeeper

  • 1Lucas Arcanjo

Defence

  • 98Mateusinho
  • 25Cacá
  • 36Luan Cândido
  • 83Jamerson

Midfield

  • 10Matheuzinho
  • 33Erick
  • 95Caíque
  • 6E. Martínez
  • 20Lucas Silva

Attack

  • 91Rene
Substitutes (12)
  • 9Alex Bruno
  • 15Walace
  • 88Zé Vitor
  • 71Yuri Sena
  • 26Edenilson
  • 7Marinho
  • 8T. Pochettino
  • 77I. Laquintana
  • 79Renato Kayzer
  • 2E. Brítez
  • 28Anderson Pato
  • 23Fabrício

Match Statistics

Sao PauloVitoria
1.8Expected Goals0.79
395Passes accurate327
12Shots insidebox6
9Shots outsidebox6
6Blocked Shots2
10Free Kicks13
6Shots on Goal2
1Goalkeeper Saves4
9Shots off Goal8
480Total passes405
21Total Shots12
4Yellow Cards3
6Corner Kicks2
13Fouls13
0Red Cards0
55%Ball Possession45%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.643.745.47

Double chance

1XX212
1.132.241.24

Draw no bet

12
1.214.02

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.931.80

1st half

1X2
2.182.175.61

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.4910.02.99

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.049.37
1.51.303.35
2.51.981.82
3.53.411.29
4.56.831.08
5.513.41.03
6.524.71.01
7.551.0–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.75
11.028.10
1.251.134.50
1.751.332.89
21.482.52
2.251.752.05
2.752.241.59
32.701.42
3.252.921.31
3.754.051.16
45.651.08
4.256.051.06
510.01.01

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.52.811.42
-1.252.421.52
-12.121.70
-0.751.791.98
-0.51.632.28
-0.251.392.77
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.510.51.03
-310.01.01
-2.757.001.04
-2.55.591.11
-2.255.011.13
-24.551.17
-1.753.491.29
01.204.08
+0.251.164.71
+0.51.155.50
+0.751.067.27
+11.019.60
+1.51.0310.5

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
1.51.077.40
2.51.214.05
3.51.452.63
4.51.891.82
5.52.761.41
6.54.051.22
7.55.901.11
8.58.251.05
9.510.81.03
2 more lines
LineOverUnder
41.592.28
52.391.54

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0214.7
5.51.039.33
6.51.076.08
7.51.154.40
8.51.293.09
9.51.522.33
10.51.911.82
11.52.391.50
12.53.211.29
13.54.371.16
14.55.821.09
15.59.331.03
16.510.51.03
17.512.51.01
17 more lines
LineOverUnder
71.065.25
81.143.80
8.751.312.92
91.302.73
9.251.372.61
9.751.532.28
101.702.09
10.251.722.04
10.751.891.77
112.051.69
11.252.121.57
11.752.421.44
122.571.39
12.252.821.32
133.271.21
144.271.11
155.391.05